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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:54 pm to notiger1997
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:54 pm to notiger1997
22 inches is really not that unrealistic. Average of half an inch for 44 hours equals 22 inches.
Half an inch an hour in a slow moving hurricane is easily achievable.
Half an inch an hour in a slow moving hurricane is easily achievable.
1
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:54 pm to rds dc
Your stubborn defense of the NWS and NHC is not a good look for you.
The cold front was forecast to make it through Louisiana. It didn't. The forecast was wrong.
Two days ago Sally was forecast to go between Slidell and Gulfport around 6 PM today. You posted an image showing that forecast on page 98.
You're one of the most weather knowledgeable guys on here and I admire you for it but I don't understand your reluctance to admit the weather gurus can be wrong.
The cold front was forecast to make it through Louisiana. It didn't. The forecast was wrong.
Two days ago Sally was forecast to go between Slidell and Gulfport around 6 PM today. You posted an image showing that forecast on page 98.
You're one of the most weather knowledgeable guys on here and I admire you for it but I don't understand your reluctance to admit the weather gurus can be wrong.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:56 pm to Luke
quote:
So what I’m hearing is the FloraBama is the place to be tonight for ground zero ?!?!?
Flora bama is in the cross hairs. I wonder if they’ll be open.
If so, I imagine it will be quite insane
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:57 pm to LSURussian
quote:
You're one of the most weather knowledgeable guys on here and I admire you for it but I don't understand your reluctance to admit the weather gurus can be wrong.
The NHC guys admitted early on they had very low confidence in the track due to the poor steering situation
Before it crossed Florida they had it making landfall just east of the LA/MS line. So off by ~100 miles 5 days out. Not bad
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:58 pm to SlidellCajun
They are closed today and tomorrow.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:59 pm to Cosmo
The NHC track Sunday had it going through Hammond.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:00 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
22 inches is really not that unrealistic
Already showing over 5" for today on Fort Morgan Rd
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:01 pm to The Boat
Where did i talk about sunday baw?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:02 pm to Cosmo
Man watching how far this storm has shifted over the past couple days, I’m starting to get nervous of the few tracks that had it going hard east then looping back down and around in the gulf again. shite seemed laughable days ago....now....not so much.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:03 pm to Cosmo
quote:You know you're fricked when you have Boat and me agreeing with each other against you.
Cosmo
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:04 pm to Cosmo
You said 100 miles 5 days out
Hammond to FloraBama is much farther just 4 days out
Hammond to FloraBama is much farther just 4 days out
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:05 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:06 pm to The Boat
Mobile solidly within cone? Timing just way off
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:07 pm to jpggpj
yep can't trust any model until 2 days out. learning very quickly on that. my gym closed today for no dam reason. not even a breeze out there. sad
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:07 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The cold front was forecast to make it through Louisiana. It didn't. The forecast was wrong.
10 days out.
You’re a money guy, right?
Tell me what the price of TSLA will be 1 day out, then you can bitch about the NHC missing by a couple dozen miles on Sally or a weather forecast 10 days out.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:08 pm to The Boat
Shhh - that never happened.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:09 pm to rds dc
quote:
The 1st Sally track was issued 5 days ago and it looks like landfall will be within 100 miles of that 1st forecast.
First forecast of TD-19
Friday 8/11/20 at 7:00pm CDT
It had the storm hitting the La./Miss border after 2:00pm today and going on into La. as a tropical storm. That was almost four days ago.
The storm had yet to hit so we can’t grade the NHC on accuracy just yet. Mobile is Roughly 100 miles from the La. border with Miss.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:09 pm to LSURussian
Sometimes shite happens
I remember about 8-10 years ago some crazy cold front coming through end of Aug first of Sept and it was 68° on a Friday on my way home.
Weather people do suck at times but why try to flush out rds?
I remember about 8-10 years ago some crazy cold front coming through end of Aug first of Sept and it was 68° on a Friday on my way home.
Weather people do suck at times but why try to flush out rds?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 3:09 pm to Cosmo
That cone isn’t even facing the right direction. It making landfall from the SW when that cone shows SE two days early negates that cone. As far west as the MS/AL state line was outside the cone on Sunday.
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