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Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
quote: “Flooding and wildfires are become more prevalent year after year.”
Have they?
I think most people that believe that are less than 30 and have less than 20 years of memories beyond playing with toys and watching cartoons.
0
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:08 pm to doubleb
quote:
We need a tornado condition alert when the possibility of a tornado forming exists in a specific cell/area.
We need a tornado watch like we have now.
You are arguing FOR the system we have now.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:08 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
People who understand how tornado warnings work
They don’t work. That’s my point. People start ignoring them when after three or hour false alarms. There needs to be a better system.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:10 pm to doubleb
quote:
We need a tornado warning when we know there’s a tornado.
We need a tornado condition alert when the possibility of a tornado forming exists in a specific cell/area.
We basically have this already. We have a tornado warning for when a storm is producing or appears highly likely to be producing a tornado. When a tornado is confirmed, the National Weather Service typically will label it a “tornado emergency.”
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:11 pm to doubleb
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/18/21 at 3:01 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:12 pm to lsutiger2010
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:13 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
You are arguing FOR the system we have now.
Wrong.
We have two steps now watch and then warning,
We need something in between.
Watch like we have now makes people award that bad weather may happen,
Then when a forecaster at a radar seed a condition making him thing s thunderstorm is rotating they could issue a tornado condition for a specific area to alert people there to be in the lookout.
Then if a gunnel is seen or a tornado is verified on radar a warning could be issued.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:13 pm to doubleb
quote:
I do think they do a poor job of reporting what a storm is doing and once they establish the top wind speed they are reluctant to lower it if a storm weakens. Then folks get the false notion that they easily weathered a major storm when reality it really wasn’t, Then when an intensifying hits them at the same wind speed later, they are shocked.
There's always a battle between simplicity and details. For example, when they report the max wind speed, the could add a plus or a minus to indicate if it's weakening or strengthening. They could do the same on forecast wind speeds. But... if Americans can't understand the forecast now, is more detailed info going to make it easier or harder to understand? More projected data means more chances for an "error" which means more opportunities to complain.
quote:
And then the problem is telling folks about surge and making them understand that just wind speed doesn’t determine the surge. There are other factors, Katrina hit Miss. as a cat 3 I believe, but the surge was record setting because of the size of Katrina and the fact it had been a cat 5 st one time.
Before Katrina, all the hurricane scales used to list wind speed and surge. Now it's just wind, because of Katrina. Now, surge is an entirely different animal, different warnings, different predictions, etc. This is absolutely better. And I think what we are about to see in a day or two will prove that.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:15 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
We basically have this already. We have a tornado warning for when a storm is producing or appears highly likely to be producing a tornado. When a tornado is confirmed, the National Weather Service typically will label it a “tornado emergency.”
Now I didn’t know that, thanks.
Yes, a three step system is better and I think the public needs to know what the process is now.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:16 pm to doubleb
quote:
Wrong.
We have two steps now watch and then warning,
We have that already.
Watch>Warning>Tornado Emergency
Again, we have fallen into a belief in definites. You will never, EVER have definites in meteorology. There are simply too many factors.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:18 pm to rds dc
Offshore Orange Beach and about 50 miles SE of Mobile
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:19 pm to Duke
quote:
I'm sitting at the radar and see rotation, we have conditions that would support a tornado, see a good updraft going into the cell but it might not be on the ground yet and possibly won't form.
If you had to estimate what percentage of time, a "radar-based tornado warning" is issued, and no actual tornado actually verified, what is it? Or is the very nature of a tornado (quick life on ground, often unseen in rural areas) make such a guess even possible?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:20 pm to LegendInMyMind
Sally is looking a little healthier on satellite actually rotating this latest hot tower around the north side. Outflow has expanded some this morning too. It's probably what the GFS is picking up on when it does this questionable quick intensification.
Recon has the core band getting the higher winds closer to the actual center and it is more symmetrical than yesterday but the south side remains weak and that side of the eyewall refuses to close off (thankfully).
The HWRF this time around never fully closes off that ring of strong winds and only gets it a little stronger by landfall. Not enough to change things. HMON and GFS do strengthen it around high end Cat 2 but I find that a little suspect.
Slow drift to the NW continues.
Recon has the core band getting the higher winds closer to the actual center and it is more symmetrical than yesterday but the south side remains weak and that side of the eyewall refuses to close off (thankfully).
The HWRF this time around never fully closes off that ring of strong winds and only gets it a little stronger by landfall. Not enough to change things. HMON and GFS do strengthen it around high end Cat 2 but I find that a little suspect.
Slow drift to the NW continues.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:21 pm to doubleb
quote:
Now I didn’t know that, thanks.
Yes, a three step system is better and I think the public needs to know what the process is now.
You will still never see a time where every single tornado warning leads to a tornado emergency. MAYBE one day on the plains, but in the Southeast, spotting every tornado is simply not realistic. There's a reason why most chasers don't chase in Dixie Alley. The terrain is terrible for chasing and a large number of tornadoes will be rain wrapped.
We have developed a network of trained spotters and they are good. Radar continues to improve, and the skill of forecasting continues to improve. However, we are decades away from what you, and too many others, are expecting/demanding, if it is ever to be a reality.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:23 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The terrain is terrible
How so? Only thing I can think of is trees.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:23 pm to doubleb
Update: much less worried about my complex or where my father in law is staying.
Still concerned about where my mother in law is staying on St. Lucia in the Terry Cove area, evidently roads are flooding? Anyone in the area can give me an update?
Still concerned about where my mother in law is staying on St. Lucia in the Terry Cove area, evidently roads are flooding? Anyone in the area can give me an update?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:23 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
We have that already.
Watch>Warning>Tornado Emergency
See, I thought emergency was only used when a confirmed tordado was headed towards an urban area. It's rare that I see it called.
Maybe the NWS can educate more people on what a tornado emergency is, and when it will be issued.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:25 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
How so? Only thing I can think of is trees.
Hills and trees would make it harder to spot, compared to the flat earth and no trees of the plains.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:25 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
If you had to estimate what percentage of time, a "radar-based tornado warning" is issued, and no actual tornado actually verified, what is it? Or is the very nature of a tornado (quick life on ground, often unseen in rural areas) make such a guess even possible?
I can make an educated guess, though I'm sure I could find those numbers if I was motivated enough.
I'd say probably 30% of those won't find enough to verify, but again a guess based on experience. It's because a lot of those are pretty marginal and you have to find the damage evidence to support it. Plus you are limited by the radar location. There's been a trend recently to put Severe TStorm warnings on those with "tornado possible" indicated on graphic.
The good news is those big tornadoes pretty much always verify when the radar spots them, and those do the majority of the damage obviously.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:26 pm to Duke
quote:
Recon has the core band getting the higher winds closer to the actual center and it is more symmetrical than yesterday but the south side remains weak and that side of the eyewall refuses to close off (thankfully).
Do dropsondes record any ocean water temps?
I'm wondering about upwelling. While it wasn't an issue with Laura and its speed, Sally is just churning.
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