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Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:27 am to Duke
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:27 am to Duke
quote:
Still welcome every $ and effort to make them even better.
With computing power become cheaper by the "unit" every day, we should be throwing more and more money at this. (if that will help them be better).
I do believe the NHC is getting better every year at this. But I think that also causes the expectations to be even higher. I mean they missed the high surge point for Laura by about 10-15 miles and people acted like there was no high surge at all because it didn't hit exactly where the dot was.
Every NHC forecast and discussion I have ever read clearly states the need to not focus on the lines/dots, but Americans are clearly too stupid to understand that. Because 150 miles off, 5 days out, to me is a damn strong accomplishment, but too many Americans lose their shite over that "miss".
After Katrina, NHC spent many years trying to reboot their explanation of storm surge and I think we are better for it. The science wasn't wrong, but the average person could not understand it. They can understand it better now.
I really think the NHC / weather media should revisit the concept of the line and the dots. Maybe just say, here is the cone of 75% possibilities, and if you are in a warned area, be ready for it to hit you, it might or might not.
3
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:30 am to LegendInMyMind
Yes
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:31 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Every NHC forecast and discussion I have ever read clearly states the need to not focus on the lines/dots, but Americans are clearly too stupid to understand that. Because 150 miles off, 5 days out, to me is a damn strong accomplishment, but too many Americans lose their shite over that "miss".
Therein lies the problem. A large majority of people in this country expect to be coddled and have every decision made for them by someone else while at the same time demanding perfection from everyone making those decisions. Critical thinking, logic, and reason are vanishing at a terrifyingly rapid rate.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:31 am to Tiger985
In front of my house on West Beach and the last photo in the boat launch at Kiva Dunes in Mobile Bay.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:31 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I really think the NHC / weather media should revisit the concept of the line and the dots
Perhaps dry the line 2-3 days out and after that just the cone.
People could see that after 48 or say 72 hours the likelihood of error really increases.
As for intensity, they are really not even close to being accurate.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 11:37 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:32 am to lsumailman61
lsumailman did you retire to Gulf Shores? Staying in your condo/house or did you evac?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:34 am to doubleb
quote:
People could see that after 48 or say 7: hours the likelihood of error really increases.
The biggest hurdle for any met working today, or organization in the meteorology field, is dealing with a public that is hell bent on thinking in definites in regards to meteorology. There are no definites in meteorology.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:36 am to tiger91
Moved here after LSU ten years ago. Work out here and own an oyster farm in Ft Morgan. Still at my house on West Beach. I have a hotel booked nearby if I need to boogie because of winds and surge or I lose electricity.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:38 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
With computing power become cheaper by the "unit" every day, we should be throwing more and more money at this. (if that will help them be better).
They are, but the power requirements increase more like an exponential as you improve the resolution. The models do continue to improve the resolution though, thanks to the cheaper computing power. As it improves, the resolutions will improve and the models will get better but also more complicated.
quote:
I do believe the NHC is getting better every year at this. But I think that also causes the expectations to be even higher. I mean they missed the high surge point for Laura by about 10-15 miles and people acted like there was no high surge at all because it didn't hit exactly where the dot was.
Hell of a paradox right? There's a hurricane churning just off the Mouth of the Mississippi and everyone in New Orleans is talking about what a bust the forecast was. Imagine ten years ago if this was happening.
quote:
Every NHC forecast and discussion I have ever read clearly states the need to not focus on the lines/dots, but Americans are clearly too stupid to understand that. Because 150 miles off, 5 days out, to me is a damn strong accomplishment, but too many Americans lose their shite over that "miss".
We're a stubborn, enjoys to be pissed off people. It has it advantages at times, but weather forecasting response certainly isn't one of them.
quote:
I really think the NHC / weather media should revisit the concept of the line and the dots. Maybe just say, here is the cone of 75% possibilities, and if you are in a warned area, be ready for it to hit you, it might or might not.
I think that will happen at some point in the near future. The NWS is currently working on giving more statistical forecasts vs deterministic. Of course, people don't understand stats so...
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:38 am to tiger91
And yes being from Southern Vermillion parish, my mom is freaking out. But I want to get to the oyster farm as quickly as this passes over to assess damage.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:42 am to lsumailman61
Guessing there ain’t gonna be no trip to orange beach this Friday 
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:42 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The biggest hurdle for any met working today, or organization in the meteorology field, is dealing with a public that is hell bent on thinking in definites in regards to meteorology. There are no definites in meteorology.
I do think they do a poor job of reporting what a storm is doing and once they establish the top wind speed they are reluctant to lower it if a storm weakens. Then folks get the false notion that they easily weathered a major storm when reality it really wasn’t, Then when an intensifying hits them at the same wind speed later, they are shocked.
And then the problem is telling folks about surge and making them understand that just wind speed doesn’t determine the surge. There are other factors, Katrina hit Miss. as a cat 3 I believe, but the surge was record setting because of the size of Katrina and the fact it had been a cat 5 st one time.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:43 am to DeoreDX
quote:
My wife mentioned this morning that the facebook page is saying the West end was flooded pretty bad and had a lot of vehicles underwater and people cut off from leaving. The west end floods in a hard rain. Can't imagine people on the west end not realizing that anything hurricane like would flood it bad enough to make it impassible.
Weather Channel had some video from Brett Adair, from earlier today I believe. He also showed surge coming into the West End of the island yesterday.
Yesterday - twitter
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:45 am to Duke
quote:
I think that will happen at some point in the near future. The NWS is currently working on giving more statistical forecasts vs deterministic. Of course, people don't understand stats so...
Teaching folks what a 30% chance of rain really means would be a start. Then telling them that there’s a 30% chance a hurricane will intensify x amount would mean something.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:46 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
dealing with a public that is hell bent on thinking in definites in regards to meteorology. There are no definites in meteorology.
So we just need to change the way every human thinks?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:47 am to CBDTiger
LINK [0]=AZWqsxJjPkiBolpFw1GswSarXF0DrYw0r8L4UuSrpz0o6E-qKgtc2KLoeJI0N_5-_K-pBkfYQmfTrES35oBMFG89MyQ9ZWY3HuT3o_Qb-Ei3FiNYXxJ9FqCVVrwgJ2N17-6RMjWhGd-wDVjQPdZP_XEeuZdg2pW48n9ok5ucOq2vBQ&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Video from the beach in Gulf Shores on FB
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:48 am to Duke
quote:
I think that will happen at some point in the near future. The NWS is currently working on giving more statistical forecasts vs deterministic. Of course, people don't understand stats so...
I mean, the NWS is doing away with severe weather advisories because people don't understand advisories. We're also still mired in the decades long Watch/Warning debate because people who have lived in tornado prone areas all of their lives cannot grasp the difference between the two, even with fancy color coded charts and graphs. Also, we're researching better ways to present maps to individuals because such a large number of people can't get within 50 miles of where they live when picking out their location on a map.
The NWS should never underestimate the stupidity of the general public.
BTW....the NWS public survey on Advisories is a pretty good one with opportunity to express one's opinion on the matter. It is still up and available to take.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:48 am to lsumailman61
quote:
Moved here after LSU ten years ago. Work out here and own an oyster farm in Ft Morgan. Still at my house on West Beach. I have a hotel booked nearby if I need to boogie because of winds and surge or I lose electricity.
Oh man .. best wishes for the oyster farm. Let's just say, I can relate but different crop. Blessings to you.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:49 am to Duke
quote:
There's a hurricane churning just off the Mouth of the Mississippi and everyone in New Orleans is talking about what a bust the forecast was. Imagine ten years ago if this was happening.
My brother was sitting in West Palm Beach last year during Dorian and couldn't believe he wasn't evacuating...
He said ten years ago everyone would have boarded up, spent 12+ hours trying to get out of FL, and expected to come back to ruin.
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