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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:49 am to CBDTiger
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:49 am to CBDTiger
i lived on the Island from '05-'10.
can't believe people on the west end didn't leave.
when Katrina came everyone i knew down there left.
this storm isn't any where near that strength but it is going to be way more of a direct hit.
why the hell didn't they leave already? Yesterday afternoon or evening was go time.
can't believe people on the west end didn't leave.
when Katrina came everyone i knew down there left.
this storm isn't any where near that strength but it is going to be way more of a direct hit.
why the hell didn't they leave already? Yesterday afternoon or evening was go time.
0
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:49 am to tiger91
I know all too well. Rita destroyed my Dads crawfish and Rice for awhile.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:50 am to lsumailman61
quote:
And yes being from Southern Vermillion parish, my mom is freaking out. But I want to get to the oyster farm as quickly as this passes over to assess damage.
Again can TOTALLY relate to this .. which is why we either don't leave or don't go far.
Just curious .. how far south in Vermilion? My husband is from Kaplan. And idk how old you are, but as a mom of 3 (28, 23, almost 20) I get it. My mom flips out when we don't evacuate.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:51 am to Jwho77
Wonder what wind speed is in that video?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:51 am to X
quote:
So we just need to change the way every human thinks?
When a local meteorologist does their 6pm hit and says that there will be a chance for severe weather the following day and within 5 minutes there at 20+ people on his/her Twitter or Facebook asking what time they can expect a tornado at their house tomorrow, yes....it is a people and thinking problem.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:51 am to tiger91
Graduated from Kaplan in 2001. From the Forked Island area. Family property is South of the Intracoastal.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:53 am to lsumailman61
quote:
I know all too well. Rita destroyed my Dads crawfish and Rice for awhile.
Willing to bet our families know each other.
Husband graduated from VC in 1988. Started farming with his dad in 1997 after grad school. Farm is just south of Hwy 14 ... one of the fields that he farms had lots of salt water after Rita ... Greene property but other than that we lucked out.
Again, best wishes to you and yours. Stay safe.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 11:56 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:54 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
it is a people and thinking problem.
There's nothing a meteorologist or Twitter will ever do to change the fact that people are fricking stupid.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:54 am to tiger91
quote:
Willing to bet our families know each other.
BINGO!
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:55 am to X
quote:
There's nothing a meteorologist or Twitter will ever do to change the fact that people are fricking stupid.
Very true and very sad.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:55 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
The NWS should never underestimate the stupidity of the general public
In defense of the general public, we aren’t the ones issuing a series tornado warnings when there are no tornadoes.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:56 am to doubleb
quote:
In defense of the general public, we aren’t the ones issuing a series tornado warnings when there are no tornadoes.
This thinking is also part of the problem.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:58 am to LegendInMyMind
Please stop talking about the cone from Sunday and other shite like that. No one cares about the cone from Sunday. Keep everything focused on today’s sally.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:00 pm to doubleb
quote:
In defense of the general public, we aren’t the ones issuing a series tornado warnings when there are no tornadoes.
I'm sitting at the radar and see rotation, we have conditions that would support a tornado, see a good updraft going into the cell but it might not be on the ground yet and possibly won't form.
Is it better to not warn that until someone sees the funnel or a debris ball shows up on radar? People want more lead time and fewer false alarms. Which are competing ideals. Again, it could always be better and there is always work trying to make it better. At the same time, a false alarm is better than no warning and a tornado hits.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
yes....it is a people and thinking problem
yep, and there are tons of studies out there to support this...
In fact Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky won a nobel prize for this type of research back in 2002.
TLDR version of their research; People are shite at evaluating probabilities and making decisions based on them, especially when loss or risk is involved.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
This thinking is also part of the problem.
No it’s not.
When you have over a dozen tornado warnings on half a day and not one tornado is reported who in their right mind are going to take the warnings seriously?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:05 pm to doubleb
quote:
When you have over a dozen tornado warnings on half a day and not one tornado is reported who in their right mind are going to take the warnings seriously?
People who understand how tornado warnings work
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:05 pm to doubleb
quote:
When you have over a dozen tornado warnings on half a day and not one tornado is reported who in their right mind are going to take the warnings seriously?
And when has this happened anytime recently?
There are false alarms but this really exaggerates the frequency of them.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:06 pm to Duke
quote:
I'm sitting at the radar and see rotation, we have conditions that would support a tornado, see a good updraft going into the cell but it might not be on the ground yet and possibly won't form.
I understand. But after you issue a handful of warnings and nothing happens, people are going to ignore you. Do you want that.
We need a tornado warning when we know there’s a tornado.
We need a tornado condition alert when the possibility of a tornado forming exists in a specific cell/area.
We need a tornado watch like we have now.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:07 pm to Duke
quote:
Is it better to not warn that until someone sees the funnel or a debris ball shows up on radar?
Alot of people will argue it is. Yet, they don't realize that in the Southeast, or Dixie Alley, only a small percentage of tornadoes are ever actually spotted due to terrain and that radar is delayed and not every tornado will present a debris ball. Erring on the side of caution will always be the correct approach.
I'm done now. Back to Sally.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 12:08 pm
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