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re: Running average of 49 worldwide antibody studies is showing a mortality rate of 0.23%
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:07 am to SloaneRanger
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:07 am to SloaneRanger
quote:This isn’t true either. About 74% of the deaths for those 65 in older. 80% of the deaths in a typical flu season are for those 65 percent and older and usually far more children are infected (30% of cases about 1% of deaths) then COVID-19 since schools were canceled, the 74% is probably an even lower proportion than usual.
It is probably less serious than the flu for those under 50.
Therefore, it’s actually killing more than the younger population than a typical flu season. Of course it’s clearly much less deadly for those who are younger, but it’s much deadlier relative to the flu for that same group. People seem to be overestimating the risk for those during the flu.
1
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:07 am to lsupride87
quote:
Every study provides a link so Volgavia can poke holes in it because it isn’t as deadly as he would like
Living in ya head, baw.
Especially because the only study I directly questioned was the one that there is still a firestorm about shitty statistics that even the author acknowledged.
Oh, and the one that claimed 95% of infected with no symptoms.
Don’t even need to get into the links to start poking holes.
For instance, half of the studies referenced aren’t even antibody studies
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 11:16 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:08 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
Have you seen my post on cellular immunity to Cov2? Specifically T cell immunity in seronegative individuals.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:08 am to SloaneRanger
quote:This is true.
It is probably less serious than the flu for those under 50. The flu can sometimes kill a lot of young uns.
Another way to look at this is how many human years are lost for each death.
Average age of Covid deaths is 80. If you make it to 80, your life expectancy is 88
Average age of H1N1 in 2009 was 40. If you make it to 40 your life expectancy is 80.
There were 40 human years lost on average for H1N1 deaths and 8 years for Covid deaths. Morbidly, you can also factor in how much productivity society lost by comparing how productive people are between ages 40-80 and ages 80-88.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:08 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
between 0.49% and 10.1%.
I think you typoed your decimal point there.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:08 am to RogerTheShrubber
they're heavily invested in the worst outcome.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:11 am to cwil177
quote:
Yes and no. If everyone got sick all at once you have more potential to overwhelm the system, which could conceivably lead to more deaths. Hence social distancing to flatten the curve.
I think Cuomo said yesterday that 66% of the people infected and hospitalized people in NY were adhering to the stay at home order.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:14 am to lsupride87
quote:
Showing an IFR of 0.23% Seasonal flu is is 0.1% for reference
neither warrants (or warranted) the economic and societal devastation that was imposed
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:14 am to lsupride87
quote:
Running average of 49 worldwide antibody studies is showing a mortality rate of 0.23%
Most of those tests are showing large numbers of false positives, which are driving down your mortality rate. When they get that figured out the mortality rate is going to be between 0.5 and 0.7 where we've know it was since early March.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:15 am to lsupride87
The southern states are the ones clamoring most to keep opening up. Also the least healthy populations and highest obesity rates, poorest, least-insured.
We'll see what happens with this experiment by the end of May at latest.
We'll see what happens with this experiment by the end of May at latest.
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 11:16 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:15 am to SloaneRanger
quote:On average, only about 400 to 450 for those under 18, but since they represent about 30% of the infections in a typical flu season, only about 1 in 25,000 to 30,000 of those infected die.
The flu can sometimes kill a lot of young uns.
Since kids have been out or school, the percentage of infections for that population is much lower for COVID-19 (probably close to a tenth) and we probably only have 1/4th to a 1/3rd of the infections we would have in a typical flu season so far, we shouldn’t expect very many deaths at all for those under 18 even if it’s 8 times deadlier than the flu.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:16 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:Fixed.
I think you typoed your decimal point there.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:27 am to TH03
quote:What? The narrative looks closer to the truth than ever
that it's just the flu
The flu has a 0.1% mortality rate with a vaccine that helps to lower the potency of the virus if you do so happen to get it
This has a 0.23% mortality rate according to the testing without a vaccine
This study drives the two viruses together, not further apart.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:29 am to Penrod
quote:Of course they are. I WANT MORE DEATHS!!!!
Most of those tests are showing large numbers of false positives,
Go look at the German study which specifically accounted for this
Their estimation of mortality rate is 0.24%.....It’s even waweeewaeee supported who was originally on team buckeye vol’a death train
This post was edited on 5/7/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:37 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
8 times deadlier than the flu.
quote:
buckeye_vol
A couple of weeks ago it was "15-20x" more deadly. You're going to bang this drum until it kills you.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:38 am to RB10
The lockdown crowd is taking a beating today
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:39 am to lsupride87
Great, but antibody tests are not accurate at this point.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:43 am to Zappas Stache
quote:Thats completely full of shite
Great, but antibody tests are not accurate at this point.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:43 am to buckeye_vol
All those obese dementia 85 yr olds, taken way too soon.
And also Joe Diffie, tragically.
And also Joe Diffie, tragically.
Posted on 5/7/20 at 11:47 am to lsupride87
quote:I actually posted a scientific study of the IFR, and it's not 0.23%, it's more like 3 times that.
This has a 0.23% mortality rate according to the testing without a vaccine
This study drives the two viruses together, not further apart.
Furthermore, with the excess mortality data around the worldwide indicating far more people dying than normal ABOVE AND BEYOND COVID-19 death totals, the more missing cases there are, the more likely each one of those excess deaths is a result of COVID-19.
For example, in the United States, over a 4 week time span through 04/18/20, there were 62,418 excess deaths and that is with a lack of data from North Carolina and Conneticut (one of the hardest hit states) so there was probably closer to 70 thousand excess deaths.
During that time period, there about fewer than 39,000 COVID-19 Deaths, so there were about 75% excess deaths than can COVID-19 deaths. And excess deaths aren't just a measure excess above the expected value (average deaths controlled for seasonalit), they're in excess of a threshold said at the upper bound of the 95% confidence internal. That means there were about an addition 10,000 deaths above expectation that aren't included in the excess portion.
So a good portion of those excess deaths are probably COVID-19 deaths, but the more infections we're missing, then the greater the likelihood an excess death is a COVID-19 death. Therefore, the data you're using that drives down the IFR estimate as it increases the denomiator will also increase the numerator as well; however, that is not included.
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