re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Coming to a store near you?? Scenes from Italy:





South Korea is up to 763 cases and 7 deaths and Italy is up to 157 cases and 3 deaths.

I may stock up on a shitload of canned goods. I can avoid contact with people for the most part for months at a time if I want.

Looks like China doesn’t care about reporting anymore. Maybe if you ignore it, it will go away.

quote:

---

What happens next? Nothing burger or a saturation of medical treatment facilities?

---

As near as I can tell, there is still hope it will be contained in the US, but we won't really know until Spring or maybe Summer. We know that the virus is really, really contagious (look at the number of infected on the cruise ship). We are also seeing that in some cases there are no symptoms, or the symptoms show up 2 to 4 weeks after exposure. How many people come within 10' of the average person in 30 days? Untraceable clusters of illness will be an indication of serious problems with the current 14 day isolation is insufficient. People are also testing negative when they are actually infected.

foxbusiness.com - untraceable coronavirus clusters

The Western countries have had two strokes of luck - the outbreak in Wuhan started just before our holidays, and really got a hold in China just before the Chinese New year. These two things cut down a lot of travel of people that may be infected from China. One exception is that at US universities, Chinese visiting scholars have a 6-month stay option that for many starts just after the Christmas break with scholars coming in early January. I don't know about other universities, but KU (where I live) has quite a few scholars coming from Wuhan Normal and Wuhan Technical University every year. Also, the Confucius Institute branch at KU is run by Wuhan Normal.

Another unknown is how the virus will behave in the West. I have seen speculation that what is being seen in China is that there is a first, mild infection that does not develop immunity to the virus. A second infection causes a very high death rate. I have also seen someone suggest that some of the people in China may have been given a SARS vaccine in the past and this makes them have a much different reaction to the virus than someone that has not been vaccinated. There may also be genetic differences that make the Chinese (or Asians in general) more susceptible to death from the virus.


What we do know -

There is a virus.

This virus is very infectious.

China has at least 500 Million people restricted to their homes.

Business in China has been to a very large extent - closed, at a time where they badly need the money from foreign sources.

China's hospitals are overwhelmed with patients and they have quickly built new, massive facilities.

China's doctors and healthcare workers are being infected by the virus.

Numbers of infected, dead, and recovered from China are absolute BS.


What I think is true -

2 weeks ago, based on information from a Wuhan crematorium operator, Wuhan was disposing of approx. 1000 bodies daily.

Last week, an epidemiologist being interviewed by Steve Bannon estimated over 1.5 million infected in China, which would be over 3 million today based on doubling every 6 days.

With China in disarray, drugs and medical supplies manufactured there will become a problem in the rest of the world, including drugs manufactured in other countries due to lack of materials from China.

The virus is active and will not be contained in Africa and the Middle East.


Yes, China has lost control.

China reports 11 new cases outside Hubei. Italy has more than double that(23) today. China probably just gave up testing altogether.

quote:

---

China reports 11 new cases outside Hubei. Italy has more than double that(23) today. China probably just gave up testing altogether.

---

China is likely on the verge of total economic collapse. They had no choice but to send people back to work. It appears they are just going to play this out like another flu season.

quote:

---

It appears they are just going to play this out like another flu season.

---

That's essentially what the US appears to be doing. I've seen no indication that we're doing either random or regular testing of people with potentially matching signs and symptoms. As widely as this virus has spread around the world, cases with no known history of exposure are surely popping up in the US, not being tested or diagnosed or treated as anything other than normal seasonal respiratory illness.

If this turns out to have an overall profile (including seasonality) similar to influenza, it will slow down over the next few months and may not (for this season, at least) contribute levels of morbidity and mortality to suggest anything beyond a relatively normal US cold and flu season. If it turns out to be signficantly more durable, infectious and/or virulent than influenza, then at some point we'll have a reckoning.

Everybody should have listened to Glenn Beck when he told us to buy My Patriot Supply incase of an emergency.

Yeah Chinese crawfish. So buy Louisiana only. And since you have no other choice now, they’ll be 8.99/pound

quote:

---

We know that the virus is really, really contagious (look at the number of infected on the cruise ship).

---

How can that even be considered a benchmark? Cruise ships have outbreaks of illness all the time... a quick google

quote:

---

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 561 passengers and 31 crew members were treated for the ultra-contagious gastrointestinal illness on a cruise out of Port Canaveral, Florida.

---

Not saying this isn’t contagious, it obviously is, but saying it’s proven by the spread on a cruise ship doesn’t mean anything. Cruise ship outbreaks are a regular occurrence. It’s the prime arena for illness to spread rapidly.