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re: Mississippi River could change its course forever during one major flood
Posted on 2/4/18 at 3:38 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Posted on 2/4/18 at 3:38 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Might be cheaper to start drawing water from Lake Pontchartrain.
Lake Pontchartrain would have the same problem because the water is brackish (i.e. too salty to drink and would still corrode the pipes)
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Posted on 2/4/18 at 3:47 pm to White Roach
Lake Ponchartrain & Maurepas would see a huge spike in salinity levels if the Miss River moved 90 miles West. It would be impossible to fix the shipping industry because New Orleams is home to seven major railroads which are tied into the Port. Large ships wouldn’t be able to make it past the head of passes with the loss of water flow and sediment.
The loss of vegitation would be extreme as the saltwater wedge would destroy most of the current vegitation all the way up to Baton Rouge thus speeding up the erosion process.
Oil & Gas, Petrochemical, Cargo Shipping Railway would be significantly disrupted. Would be much cheaper to move most of that to Texas or Mobile. Grain would continue to flow due to shallower debts of barges but that business will go to Texas initially.
You would have to relocate 2-3 million people overnight because it would be impossible to repair infrastructure in less than two years.
The loss of vegitation would be extreme as the saltwater wedge would destroy most of the current vegitation all the way up to Baton Rouge thus speeding up the erosion process.
Oil & Gas, Petrochemical, Cargo Shipping Railway would be significantly disrupted. Would be much cheaper to move most of that to Texas or Mobile. Grain would continue to flow due to shallower debts of barges but that business will go to Texas initially.
You would have to relocate 2-3 million people overnight because it would be impossible to repair infrastructure in less than two years.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 3:48 pm to kingbob
quote:
The problem for New Orleans is that the saltwater wedge would go past Kenner, meaning the entire New Orleans area would lose its source of fresh water. The entire water system would be destroyed and expensive desalinization plants would have to be installed IMMEDIATELY
I doubt anyone knows specifically to what mile marker the salt water wedge would intrude, and it would be more rational, quicker and cheaper to build pipes say 20 miles up river to obtain fresh water than abandon our existing water system.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 3:50 pm to Bigfishchoupique
I think few people realize just how many barges there are bringing grain down. It doesn't even all go to an elevator, I see them loading grain straight into foreign ships from the barges.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 3:56 pm to White Roach
quote:
Most people traveling from New Orleans to Lake Charles wouldn't consider having to take I-20 as an easy fix.
That's my point. There's no way to get across the river anymore.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 4:04 pm to CarrolltonTiger
It will be seasonal. In the spring, the saltwater wedge will be farther south, but in the summer, it will be farther north.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 4:11 pm to islandtiger
quote:
The Atchafalaya River is a distributary of the Mississippi, but this developed over a period of time. The two rivers have an interesting history that includes people trying to merge the two, resulting in three rivers that meet in the area known as Old River.
BEFORE THE 15th CENTURY: The Red River and Mississippi River were separate rivers, more or less parallel.
15th CENTURY: The Mississippi River turned west and a loop, later called Turnbull's Bend, formed. It intercepted the Red River, which became a tributary of the Mississippi River and the Atchafalaya River was formed as a distributary of the Mississippi River.
BY 1778: The entrance to the Atchafalaya River was occluded by a logjam.
1831: Capt. Henry M. Shreve, founder of Shreveport and a world-renowned river engineer, dug a canal through the neck of Turnbull's Bend, thus shortening river travel time.
Over time, the north section of Turnbull's Bend filled in with sediment. The lower half remained open and became known as Old River and linked the three rivers.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 4:13 pm to Jim Rockford
Wanna see some crazy muddy estuaries? Go look in china.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 4:21 pm to TDsngumbo
Well, the only good news is coastal erosion would get a nice fix from all the sediment that would be laid down again.
The levee systems that are intended to protect communities also keep nature from reinforcing eroding coastal land, which in turn puts southern la. cities at risk during hurricane seasons.
The levee systems that are intended to protect communities also keep nature from reinforcing eroding coastal land, which in turn puts southern la. cities at risk during hurricane seasons.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 4:45 pm to LSUFreek
If this were to happen, my guess is the Port of Houston and the Port in Mobile would spike in business.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 4:51 pm to Fishwater
quote:
If this were to happen, my guess is the Port of Houston and the Port in Mobile would spike in business.
For a time, yes. Eventually, logistic and economic demands will require ports along the southern Mississippi. Nobody wants to see the price of grain quadruple overnight and stay that way.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 5:03 pm to CarrolltonTiger
quote:
I doubt anyone knows specifically to what mile marker the salt water wedge would intrude, and it would be more rational, quicker and cheaper to build pipes say 20 miles up river to obtain fresh water than abandon our existing water system.
The tip of the salt water wedge as been up to Belle Chasse before in a very low water year. It's not unreasonable to think salt water could intrude up to Geismar/St Gabriel, depending on the riverbed gradient.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 5:05 pm to LSUFreek
La wetlands will never again see the sediment loads of the degree to which they were built by. Too many damn dams.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 5:07 pm to wadewilson
quote:
Which refineries will be flooded?
The third and fourth largest refineries in the United States (Marathon Garyville and XOM Baton Rouge) would go offline, reducing US refining capacity by over a million barrels per day.
The loss of P66 Alliance, Valero St. Charles, PBF Chalmette, Valero Meraux, Shell Convent, and Shell Norco would reduce capacity by an additional 1.25 MM bbl/d.
For perspective, that would be 2.25 MM bbl/d out of the total US refining capacity of about 18.6 MM bbl/d, or about 12%. This would lead to massive shortages of gasoline and diesel in the US, which could cripple our economy (and consequently the global economy as well). It may also cause the price of crude produced in the US to plummet. The super majors would survive, but all of the smaller US-based companies invested in the shale plays may go under depending on how the market lines out.
The issue isn’t flooding, as others have stated. It’s fresh water supply and shipping/receiving of oil and refined products. Despite all of the flak XOM Baton Rouge takes for using groundwater, I still don’t think they could operate without water from the Mississippi River.
Others have also pointed out, rightfully, that the destruction of Morgan City would have a major impact on the offshore oil & gas industry. A lot of companies have moved their bases to Fourchon but it would still be a huge problem.
The impacts go beyond the upstream and downstream oil & gas industries. Closures of Monsanto, CF Industries, and Mosaic plants in Louisiana would increase the costs of fertilizers and pesticides - this could impact food supplies, for example.
And that’s without even mentioning the effects on transportation of products up and down the river. Can boats go 40 miles west? Sure. But what happens when there are no longer any dredged ship channels in the short term? What happens when there is no infrastructure on the river for loading/unloading large ships?
The economic impact would be felt on a global scale. It may not be the apocalypse but it would be significant.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 5:14 pm to TDsngumbo
Wouldn't that be a good thing for coastal restoration?
Posted on 2/4/18 at 5:15 pm to BeepNode
You'd see even more loss south of New Orleans but likely much more creation around wax lake
Posted on 2/4/18 at 5:55 pm to Fishwater
Mobile would have the first Mardi Gras and the largest port ?
Posted on 2/4/18 at 6:53 pm to TDsngumbo
Last I checked, mother nature is undefeated.....and she's in no hurry, it will happen at some point
Posted on 2/4/18 at 7:32 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
it will happen at some point
Doubtful, due to the reasons listed in this thread and many more. The technology to prevent it is only getting better, while the problem stays the same.
Posted on 2/4/18 at 7:33 pm to TDsngumbo
As a side note, when people talk about the Amite River basin, they seldom bring up the impact of the sediment and debris these big floods leave.
They do not dredge the Amite; thus like the Mississippi, the Amite "rises". Less rain can bring the same flood.
They do not dredge the Amite; thus like the Mississippi, the Amite "rises". Less rain can bring the same flood.
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