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re: Maybe this thing is almost over - Oxford theory UPDATED OP showing more evidence
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:21 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:21 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
Would it have?
Do you know how many old people die a day in this country especially during flu season?
Have there been many more cases since then like that nursing home? It’s an outlier not the norm.
If 20% of nursing home residents suddenly fell ill and died a couple weeks later, I think you would see a lot of questions being asked. I doubt that most nursing homes ever see that kind of fatality rate from the flu.
0
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:32 am to BiggerBear
quote:
COVID-19 emerged in China in December
Absolutely not true. There was enough of it around in mid November that news stories in the South China Morning Post appeared citing an outbreak of viral pneumonia diagnosed by clinicians in Wuhan.
Assuming transmission of 1:3, by the 10th contact, one Chinaman sneezing on an airplane in Wuhan at the end of October infects 3^10 (59,049) people.
This thing is all over the place. Forensic analysis will reveal the sneaky little yellow devils sat on this shite for a while
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:37 am to Tigris
quote:
Awesome source, gotta love the internet.
It’s an Oxford University study. That’s one of the ten most respected universities in the world - in fact, it is THE most respected non-American university. Who cares who told you about it?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:39 am to CivilTiger83
quote:
I hope it’s true, but there are some data points that would suggest that isn’t the case. Nursing homes is the biggest one... if this has infected half the population you would have seen many more cases like the Washington nursing home in January/February.
That’s a good point.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 8:26 am to reverendotis
quote:
The Imperial College report will go down as the most expensive document in world history.
Unlike every other purely academic research paper ever written by man's hand, it was immediately accepted as gospel truth and real world policy decisions predicated on its conclusions were made.
It is the most fascinating aspect of this entire debacle. Any conspiracy theorist worth his salt should be digging into the money & institution behind this paper.
I do believe it was taken with a grain of salt. And it may still be closer to the truth than this Oxford study. That being said there is no reason we shouldn’t be casting wide nets to test the general population for antibodies when that becomes possible. Maybe I’m an optimist or in denial or whatever, but I have a hard time believing that this thing is only just now making it onto US soil. If we are that far along the infection curve then that puts the hospitalization and mortality rate through the floor.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 8:42 am to Penrod
My wife is convinced it's been here since at least November.
Still demands the world shut down.
Still demands the world shut down.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 8:46 am to Powerman
quote:
This is probably stupid but would it be scientifically possible to create an alternate test for people who previously had it and survived? Because that would be useful information
Yes, it's just an antibody test
Posted on 3/25/20 at 8:47 am to Penrod
read this early this morning...cautiously hopeful
that last twitter graph of the southern states is sobering if not though
that last twitter graph of the southern states is sobering if not though
Posted on 3/25/20 at 8:53 am to mule74
quote:
I am convinced that my wife had it in early February. She had the flu for essentially two weeks, but got a negative diagnosis. They gave her a flu medication that had no affect. She had a terrible fever and cough. After two weeks she finally felt better..
Same here for me
Posted on 3/25/20 at 9:10 am to Tigeralum2008
quote:
Same here for me
Maybe you and mule74 are married to the same woman.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 9:25 am to bbrownso
Provided it’s sensitive/specific enough, a whole blood rapid test is a potential game-changer — especially since this one covers both IgG and IgM antibodies. It’s probably relatively inexpensive since it requires far fewer resources, and a vastly improved turnaround time would cut way down on the number of positives (especially subclinical ones) who don’t know to self-isolate or don’t realize why it’s important. The benefit of being able to identify populations that have achieved or are close to herd immunity also can’t be overstated in light of the economic difficulties we’re seeing right now.
I’m sure the early production waves will be allotted to identifying cases in people who are actively sick, but when there are enough to meet that demand, I hope we put a priority on identifying cases where people have already recovered. If we’re concerned about future waves or surges in infection rate, we have a much better chance of avoiding large-scale shutdowns and focusing mitigation efforts primarily on areas where more people aren’t already antibody positive if we have a good representative sample to use as a guide.
In that case it might even be more cost-effective to offer all or some of the testing at no out-of-pocket cost until we reach that threshold. You could probably buy tens of millions of those tests at a fraction of the cost of a nationwide stimulus package.
I’m sure the early production waves will be allotted to identifying cases in people who are actively sick, but when there are enough to meet that demand, I hope we put a priority on identifying cases where people have already recovered. If we’re concerned about future waves or surges in infection rate, we have a much better chance of avoiding large-scale shutdowns and focusing mitigation efforts primarily on areas where more people aren’t already antibody positive if we have a good representative sample to use as a guide.
In that case it might even be more cost-effective to offer all or some of the testing at no out-of-pocket cost until we reach that threshold. You could probably buy tens of millions of those tests at a fraction of the cost of a nationwide stimulus package.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:25 am to DeepBlueSea
quote:
The benefit of being able to identify populations that have achieved or are close to herd immunity also can’t be overstated in light of the economic difficulties we’re seeing right now.
quote:
In that case it might even be more cost-effective to offer all or some of the testing at no out-of-pocket cost until we reach that threshold.
I agree that the benefits of the tests can't be overstated.
The tests should, without question, be FREE.
Regardless of opinions on response to the epidemic, it is clearly unparalleled, in most of our lifetimes, as a national security risk.
To have a test that could help us avoid a similar disaster if data is adequate and then have tons of people avoid it because they can't afford or don't want to pay would be absurd.
It would be like not using a defense missile when under attack until every citizen inserts their quarter.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:26 am to Penrod
Is the Oxford Theory people living in denial of a worldwide crisis so their lil political views don't get disturbed?
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 10:27 am
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:32 am to mule74
quote:I think I had that shite in late February. +101 fever for 3 days, a dry cough and ached all over like a truck had hit me.
I am convinced that my wife had it in early February. She had the flu for essentially two weeks, but got a negative diagnosis. They gave her a flu medication that had no affect. She had a terrible fever and cough. After two weeks she finally felt better..
I tested negative for strep & flu, doc sent me home with cough syrup, ceflexzin (sp), and I treated the fever with Tylenol. It took 5 days to feel better and a month to get my energy level back so I could resume running & working like normal.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 10:40 am to Penrod
Here is a link to the actual pre-print paper - LINK
After a quick read a few things jump out at me. It will be interesting to see how the research community reacts to this paper, they have been doing a pretty good job of vetting these hot topic papers on the fly.
After a quick read a few things jump out at me. It will be interesting to see how the research community reacts to this paper, they have been doing a pretty good job of vetting these hot topic papers on the fly.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:01 am to Volvagia
quote:
One hopes. Although I would like to see how it is accounted for the rapid ramp up on impact of health care systems. The model would require a even more rapid spread than we think is occurring
Possible explanation (hypothetical):
The milder strain(s) spread its net faster/first. The deadlier strain didn't start spreading until a unique set of circumstances, kicked off by Chinese New Year, allowed for deadlier strain to become at least somewhat favorable from an evolutionary standpoint and gain traction.
Otherwise, I would think you'd see a strange spike a few weeks after Christmas - as no one with a cough would have thought to avoid grandma/grandpa at the holidays during that time.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:04 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
Are they though? People are going to the hospital to get tested but most are sent home.
Yes they are. Ochsner has Covid patients in pretty much all their ICUs, they opened up a special Covid ICU that is already full (35ish beds), they just opened up 50 new ICU beds last week and they are filling up so quickly that they plan to open up 75 more beds by next week.
Now this is in New Orleans where it is worse than most places but don't act like the hospitals arent filling up and a percentage of people aren't extremely sick.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 11:15 am
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:11 am to madddoggydawg
quote:
Is the Oxford Theory people living in denial of a worldwide crisis so their lil political views don't get disturbed?
what in the frick are you even talking about
Posted on 3/25/20 at 11:22 am to Volvagia
I was (am?) close to being convinced that I had it after a trip to UK in January. Had the cough, fever, aches, no flu. Seems like anecdotally a lot of people experienced the same during January/February.
quote:This is what I can't get past. Why, all of a sudden, is there a huge influx of ICU patients if the virus has been here for a few months?
Although I would like to see how it is accounted for the rapid ramp up on impact of health care systems.
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