re: Major Severe Weather Outbreak: March 14-16, 2025

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SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon
through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and
portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes,
several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging
from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all
appear likely.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and
negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern
High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at
500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly
eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This
mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest
this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing
shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these
features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep
surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains
into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low
levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central
Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward
into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential
remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the
Midwest and Mid-South.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South...
Ample diurnal heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of
the cyclone, with elevated convection already occurring across parts
of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust,
surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid
afternoon (18-21z) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern
NE southward into eastern KS/western MO, as a southerly low-level
jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into
the mid MS Valley and vicinity. The northern portion of this
convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting
mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth
into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread
severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the
MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow
and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed
boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking
locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger
cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts
of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great
Lakes this evening through tonight.

Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into
central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat
better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the
Mid-South. Stronger high-level flow and ample deep-layer shear over
these will likely promote at least semi-discrete supercells. Latest
model guidance, including various convection-allowing HREF members,
suggest scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and
evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Have nudged
severe probabilities and the corresponding SLGT/ENH/MDT westward a
little in western/central MO to account for a slightly earlier
initiation. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings strongly favor
intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3
inches in diameter), and potentially multiple strong to intense
tornadoes this evening as effective SRH rapidly increases in tandem
with a southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50-65+ kt. This
substantial severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight
into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection
eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Large-scale forcing for ascent appears a bit more nebulous/weak
farther south into the lower MS Valley. Still, the 12Z suite of
guidance shows some potential for surface-based thunderstorms
developing by late this afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. While
the stronger low/mid-level flow and forcing are expected to remain
to the north of this region, greater low-level moisture and related
instability will be present. This favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will support supercells, with associated
threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
Some of tornadoes could be strong this evening with any sustained
supercells, especially across central MS and vicinity. Have expanded
the ENH to account for this potential, and consideration was given
to expanding the MDT southward into central MS as well. But, there
is still some uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage.

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thanks for all the folks who have the knowledge and keep us informed

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slinger1317

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Does everything these days have to be SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

It's going to be thunderstorms with heavy winds, like we have our entire lives

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So let’s talk New Orleans/ Metairie and what we should expect?

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