re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS

Down to 972mb this morning





Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 11:09Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015
Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 10:48:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°56'N 72°08'W (24.9333N 72.1333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,849m (9,347ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 21° at 65kts (From the NNE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WNW (284°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the SE (133°) from the flight level center at 10:56:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 65° at 11kts (From the ENE at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW (286°) from the flight level center

So...are we going to die?

I need to know whether to panic or not.

One of the better NHC discussions in recent memory:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 301458
TCDAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

Joaquin has continued to strengthen overnight. Satellite imagery
shows that the convection has become more symmetric, and recent
visible images show what might be an eye trying to form. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-
level winds of 83 kt and estimated 70 kt surface winds from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, with a central pressure of
971 mb estimated from the aircraft data. Based on these, the
initial intensity is increased to 70 kt.

Joaquin has moved a little south of the previous track with an
initial motion of 230/5. The shortwave ridge causing this motion
is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong
deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.
This is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northward by 72
hours. There is disagreement in the track guidance between the
ECMWF and the other dynamical models. The majority of the guidance
forecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the
storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with
the trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to
move out to sea between North America and Bermuda. The ECMWF
forecasts Joaquin to move more to the south during the first 24-48
hours than the other models. In addition, it shows the hurricane
interacting with an upper-level low to its northeast that results in
a more eastward motion after 48 hours. The new forecast track,
which is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the
non-ECMWF guidance. However, out of deference to the ECMWF, it
lies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope and the
consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic
surveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special
rawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce
the spread of the guidance.

Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate
northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours. However,
since it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment,
there is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so. After
36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent
southerly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S.
trough. While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should
occur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur
through 72 hours. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for
Joaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is
possible it could be stronger than currently forecast. After 72
hours, increasing shear and cold air intrusion should cause
weakening and the start of extratropical transition.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent. A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

It's a hurricane now

east coaster checking in for hurricane jamal

What do the models say about any direct hit of the NC coast, any way it stalls?

Waakeen

Why is the Euro sending it out to sea? I've only seen a few screenshots of its latest run. Looks like the trough over the US isn't as strong as the other models.

It's quite possible I didn't know what the frick I was looking at, so I yield to those with some expertise.

quote:

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Why is the Euro sending it out to sea?

---

It appears to be some subtle timing & orientation differences between the Euro and GFS with the trough. Then add in that the Euro gets the storm farther SW and that is enough to change how the steering currents work on the storm. It is kind of counterintuitive but it appears that the more SW it goes the better chance that it gets kicked out to sea. If I had to pick, I would be kind of leaning towards the Euro at this point. At least until the system stops moving SW of what was forecasted.

ETA: obviously other things going on but that seems to be one of the major players at this point. There is an upper level recon mission out now and that data could help clear things up with the 00z runs

Surf is going off out here.