re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

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Thank you, time to get some more firewood. How does the rest of week look? Thurs-Sun?

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KEEL following the Euro model I think. Calling for 4-6" Sunday-Monday followed by 3-5" Tuesday-Wednesday.

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Temperatures are back up to 33 in Alexandria and Pineville. There may be a couple more hours of light freezing rain in our northern parishes, but so far, this seems to only be causing some icing on elevated surfaces like trees and power lines. Be careful, but I don’t think this will become a major issue as we warm up ever so slightly today.
I’m pretty much breaking this down into two parts now, with a mention of a third potential issue, but for now, let’s lock in on the Sunday threat, and the Monday threat.
Sunday…
Models are converging on a fairly significant lead wave that will likely produce accumulating freezing rain, and perhaps a little sleet on Sunday. Models are getting to the point where this looks like it could be a “warning criteria” event, before the main event Monday. That means we could see greater than 1/4 inch of ice glaze, which would of course set the stage for even bigger issues Monday, as ice continues to accumulate on top of whatever we get Sunday. As of now, it looks like 0.1-0.4 inches of liquid equivalent will fall on Sunday, and most of that will be freezing rain. I’m leaning on the cold side of guidance, as it appears to be winning each day. That means temperatures in the 28-32 degree range for most of Sunday, with southern parishes possibly sneaking above freezing in the afternoon. This would usually be the big, glaring, headline weather event. This time, it’s just an appetizer.
Sunday night into Monday…
Monday is when the true Arctic air arrives. We will likely fall from the upper 20s to the low 20s as precipitation falls. This will start Sunday night, and last until roughly noon Monday. Perhaps a bit later. Liquid totals will likely range from 0.4 to 1.1 inches, and it should all fall as freezing rain, and possibly end as a period of sleet as the cold air deepens. Snow is doubtful for most of us, but possible, especially over Sabine, Natchitoches, and Winn Parishes. Monday night, we will see temperatures nosedive into the 10-18 degree range across the area, which is in the pipe busting cold range. I expect scattered to widespread power outages, closed roads, and travel becoming impossible in parts of the area. This could impact the entire area, with the surest thing being north of a DeRidder to Opelousas line. Closer to I-10, it’s a bit more in question as to just how bad this will get. Have preparations done by Saturday evening, as that lead wave on Sunday could quickly make travel difficult.
So this is about as strongly as I’ll word things a couple days out. Let’s hope the best case scenarios play out, but a realistic best case still brings power outage potential, and some very cold air behind this whole mess. Speaking of behind this whole mess, the mention of a third potential issue is a storm system that will move our way Wednesday and Thursday. If we see snow and ice accumulation over a large part of the Deep South, as is currently forecast, we could see colder model solutions verify for Wednesday and Thursday. That could mean another round of wintry precipitation. The problem there would be that if we have widespread power outages, with another threat looming, that could cause delays in power restoration. Can we trade this for a few inches of snow? I’ll update things this evening after another cycle of model, and observational data.

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