re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

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STORM RESTORATION PROCESS
Restoration during extremely cold weather can take time

If there are widespread outages, we will deploy scouts to assess damage. We base our estimates of restoration times on those assessments. We will communicate these estimates with you, updating as new information becomes available. Our crews will simultaneously be restoring service where it is deemed safe to do so. We ask for your patience, and please know restoring your power safely and quickly is our top priority.

The restoration process can be hampered by the surge of instantaneous electrical demand from appliances (heating units, water heaters, etc.) when service is restored to your location, potentially overloading protective devices on Entergy’s electrical system. To help mitigate this problem, Entergy encourages you to turn off any electrical heaters or electrical appliances that can easily be turned off until power is restored.

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RESTORATION IN EXTREME COLD
Different conditions, different process
Entergy uses a methodical and calculated process in bringing customers back online after an outage in very cold weather, regardless of whether the initial cause of the outage was specifically weather-related.

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In extremely cold conditions, what our customers may notice is that if an outage occurs, regardless of the cause, restoration follows a different process.

Rather than simply energizing an entire power line all at once, we must bring customers back online one section at a time to avoid damage to our system and make the situation worse.

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I’m experiencing an information overload. I’ll try and keep this simple, but it’s not that simple. Huh? First off, today looks decent. I mean, it’ll be cloudy and cold, but we should be able to enjoy another day of being able to go to the store and stuff. Sunday is when things start to change, and boy will they change.
Sunday…
It looks like we could see some light patches of freezing rain, starting Sunday morning. Amounts look fairly light in the daylight hours, with most areas seeing less than 1/10 inch of precipitation. Temperatures will generally be between 28 and 32, so bridges could become slick, even with light precipitation amounts. I’d be on the side of the river you need to be on by Sunday morning. I’m thinking there will be at least one lane of a bridge open through the daylight hours tomorrow, but I have no input on when they close those. To be 100% safe, have all shopping and generator gas buying done by Saturday night.
Sunday night…
Temperatures will stay in the 20s, and slowly fall through the 20s. Freezing rain will increase by late evening, and we could see a general 1/10 to 1/4 inch of freezing rain by around 3:00 AM with what will likely be our second wave of precipitation. This is when I expect power outages to start. There may be a break for a few hours, then the main system gets cranked up, and we will see precipitation rates quickly increase by around 4:00-5:00 AM. We could see moderate, to occasionally heavy freezing rain, with temperatures in the 22-26 degree range. That means every bit of rain that falls will freeze on all elevated, and probably all surfaces. Usually, our warm ground helps keep surface streets wet, but with several days near freezing before this event, I expect all roads to become slick, especially with temperatures so far below freezing. Yes, the freezing point of water is 32, but things freeze more efficiently and quickly when we are several degrees below freezing.
Monday…
By 6:00 AM Monday, we will be in the middle of the madness. Freezing rain will be falling areawide, with a transition to sleet happening in some areas. It’s impossible to say exactly when and where this will happen, but I do think most of us will switch to sleet. The sooner the better. Sleet bounces off trees and power lines, unlike freezing rain that just continues to build up, and weigh them down. With the cold air deepening, I’m starting to at least see the potential for a 2-3 hour window of snow, especially north of a line from Leesville to Alexandria to Natchez MS. This isn’t definite, but my 10% chance of snow at the end of this storm is probably up to around 40% at my house. That ranges down to 10% around Opelousas, and 80% near Natchitoches. That’s just my rough estimate of your chance of seeing flakes. Everything should move out by early afternoon, leaving power outages, downed tree limbs, and incredible cold in its wake. Lows on Monday night will fall into the single digits north of Alexandria, near 10 in Alexandria, and the low to mid teens to our south. Winter storm watches are in place all the way to the coast, which is another incredible facet of this system. I’ve posted a map of the entire country, winter storm watches and warnings stretch from coast to coast, and from the Canadian border to the Mexican border. This is as widespread of a winter storm as I can remember. Now I have to break this down by parish, and I have no idea how I’ll do this. I think I’ll go with a simple freezing rain accumulation, and then a snow sleet accumulation on top of that. Hmm… Let’s see how this goes.
Rapides… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -1 inch of sleet or snow.
Vernon… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -1 inch of sleet or snow.
Avoyelles… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -1 inch of sleet or snow.
Grant… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -2 inches of sleet or snow.
Sabine… 1/4 - 1/2 inch of freezing rain. 1-3 inches of sleet or snow.
Natchitoches… 1/4 - 1/2 inch of freezing rain. 1-3 inches of sleet or snow.
Winn… 1/4 - 1/2 inch of freezing rain. 1-3 inches of sleet or snow.
LaSalle… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -2 inches of sleet or snow.
Catahoula… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -2 inches of sleet or snow.
Concordia… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. 1/2 -2 inches of sleet or snow.
Beauregard… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. Trace -1 inch of sleet or snow.
Allen… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. Trace -1 inch of sleet or snow.
Evangeline… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. Trace -1 inch of sleet or snow.
St. Landry… 1/4 - 3/4 inch of freezing rain. Trace -1 inch of sleet or snow.
This is a basic rundown, and of course subject to change. Models agree that most areas will see 1/2 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent fall. The exact breakdown of freezing rain or sleet or snow is what we need to narrow down. Remember that 1/4 inch of freezing rain accumulation on trees and power lines will cause power outages. So 1/2 or 3/4 of an inch of freezing rain might not sound incredible, but it is, especially for this area. Power outages will be widespread if this happens. Our saving grace might just be that transition to sleet, because I don’t see this storm just “going away”. This could be a destructive ice storm, followed by dangerous cold. Make sure family, friends, and neighbors have a way to stay warm if they lose power. If we fall into the single digits, and people don’t have electricity, that will quickly turn dangerous. Take care of each other. It’s time to prepare for a realistic worst case scenario, and honestly, a not worst case scenario, that is still pretty ugly. I’ll update things this evening, but it seems we are locking in on this thing. Be safe, use common sense, and be as prepared as possible.

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Not to sound like a dumbass, but i’m not a weather expert. My job requires me to drive about 50 miles per day in BR and our company headquarters is about 1000 miles away so they aren’t aware of Br weather. How dangerous are the roads going to be in BR Monday and Tuesday?

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Good time to remind everyone to run a generator outside. Make sure the exhaust is facing away from any windows/doors as well. CO poisoning is incredibly preventable but always seems to happen once or twice with mass power outages.

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I'd like to know if our roads will be shite Monday or not.

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