re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

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The GFS also has 17" for Shreveport and 20"+ in parts of northern

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ALso for DFW folks, there are many MANY reports of ice on the road already. No need to drive if you dont have to.

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That nasty arse chair

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Jay says how do you like me now.
Breaking out the suit vest

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I slept in. I mean, I woke up for an hour around 6:00 to look at everything, but then took another long winter’s nap. I’m going to do a parish by parish breakdown, so the full, wordy update will be around 10:30-11:00. But as of the 6:00 AM model check, it still looks like this is happening. If anything, models are trending even more impressive.

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if it’s gonna rain Monday in Baton Rouge and it’s freezing temperatures outside.... why wouldn’t it snow?

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DISCUSSION...
Rather cold and cloudy currently across the forecast area as polar
high pressure system builds down from the Canadian border toward
the Gulf of Mexico. Good news is that no precipitation is
occurring as air temperatures are near freezing in many spots.

This cold polar air mass will hang around the forecast area for
the next several days. Meanwhile, the southern jet stream will
bring warm moist air over this cold layer and remain active with
a number of upper level disturbances.

The next of these disturbances will bring a small chance for rain,
that may be freezing rain for northern portions of the forecast
area tonight. At this time, amounts do not look too significant,
however this will have to be watched closely as a winter weather
advisory may need to be issued by the next shift for tonight as
some slick spots on elevated roadways may develop.

Trends from guidance continue to show a potentially significant
winter weather event for late Sunday night into Monday as a rather
potent upper level trough and jet dynamics should bring plenty of
lift to work with abundant moisture to get widespread
precipitation going.

Forecast soundings still show a very warm layer above the cold
surface, and therefore, freezing rain will be the predominate
weather to start at with, with a gradual cooling of the layer that
sleet and possibly a little snow will mix in before it ends.

Around this part of the country winter weather events are quite a
headache to figure at and always have a degree of uncertainty
right up until it begins. Also. do not usually like to issue any
winter weather watches this early before an event. However, with
the trend toward a rather significant event and being the
weekend, decided best to go ahead and issue a winter storm watch
for a majority of the forecast area starting late Sunday night and
continuing into Monday.

The most concerning is the potential for ice accumulation with
amounts from 0.10 to 0.30 inches a good estimate currently. Winter
storm criteria with accumulations over 0.25 inches will cause
significant travel problems along with power outages. At this
point, the highest probability of that happening is roughly
northeast of a Leesville to Oakdale to Opelousas line.

After the precipitation ends Monday night and Tuesday morning look
to have bitterly cold conditions. Low temperatures were derived
from consensus means, which shows almost the entire forecast area
experiencing hard freeze conditions with lows in the teens.
Meanwhile, winds will not be calm, so speeds around 5 to 10 mph
will produce wind chill values in the single digits and with that
a wind chill advisory will be needed if this verifies.

The next disturbance will come across on Wednesday, give or take a
period. Details are still uncertain with this system, but it looks
like some type of winter precipitation may occur as it begins and
near the end of it.

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