re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

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Got warm air coming in at 700 mb and strong dynamic lift going on near and just above that level. A little more upper divergence would be nice but you could see a nice deformation band get cooking and puke snow and farther east than anticipated.

If you can get the low to form a little more over the gulf...you'll be in business.

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any home preparations you'd recommend for nola at this point

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
437 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM

Complex forecast remaining in place due to a series of shortwaves.
Winter weather is forecast in both the short and long term......


A stubborn blanket of clouds has covered the area all day, only
allowing temperatures at the most to get into the 30s to mid 40s.
Near and below freezing temperatures are expected tonight in ETX
and CenLa with an approaching shortwave however POPs are low
enough to exclude possible freezing precip. This will be closely
monitored this evening. It is not out of the realm of possibility
for a winter weather advisory to be issued.

POPs ramp up 06Z 02/14 and with low temps north of the I-10
corridor falling to or below freezing, a chance of sleet and
freezing rain are possible.

The highest accumulation amounts for snow are expected 12Z 02/15.
Parts of interior SETX are forecasted to get anywhere between 0.3
to 1.3 inches. CenLa is forecasted to get around 0.1 to 1.0
inches. A winter storm watch was not issued yet due to
accumulations not meeting criteria, but it is likely for an
advisory (or watch) to be issued tomorrow. Regardless of
issuance, this winter weather poses a threat to travel and the 4 P
(plants, people, pipes, & pets).
87

.LONG TERM (late Monday night through Friday)...
A brief shot of drier air following Sunday/Monday`s mess will lead
to partly cloudy conditions by Tuesday. With our Arctic airmass
lingering, temperatures will remain extremely cold with lows in the
SINGLE DIGITS for extreme nrn portions of the forecast area Monday
night and teens for much of the remainder of the area. Wind chills
are progged to drop to levels not seen in these parts in quite some,
ranging from near zero across interior sern TX to the middle teens
across far lower Acadiana. Temps on Tuesday will struggle to get
back to freezing across the nern zones...holding in the mid 30s
elsewhere.

With our progressive pattern in place, the approach/passage of our
next storm system aloft and its associated sfc low over the nrn Gulf
will lead to our next round of precip beginning late Tuesday night
and lingering into late Thursday when the trof axis aloft swings
through. Forecast soundings indicate a fairly similar thermal
profile to the early week event, albeit with maybe a little cooler
air aloft leading to a little more snow Sunday/Monday, meaning
another round of winter weather for the forecast area. In fact,
guidance indicates the potential for snow all the way to the coast
this time around. Similar to the Sunday/Monday event, stay tuned to
later forecasts as the event nears. Model blends looked really
aggressive on bringing warmer temps to the area during the mid-week
time frame - trended to the cooler blends and still pulled temps
back a few degrees to offset their warm bias.

Dry and hopefully something closer to seasonal temps look on tap for
Friday and the end of the forecast period.

25



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 30 42 28 33 / 10 20 30 50
LCH 35 44 33 42 / 20 20 40 20
LFT 37 44 35 42 / 20 20 30 30
BPT 36 44 35 44 / 10 10 50 20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...87 and 25

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Forecast soundings indicate a fairly similar thermal
profile to the early week event, albeit with maybe a little cooler
air aloft leading to a little more snow Sunday/Monday, meaning
another round of winter weather for the forecast area. In fact,
guidance indicates the potential for snow all the way to the coast
this time around.

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He's backed up but said he'd have some for me in a couple hours.

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Not sure where you are but there’s a guy on Hooper that has some stacked out front
Not sure what’s left

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