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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 30, 2020 Update: 28,001 cases - 1,862 deaths - 161,309 tested

Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:09 pm to
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
51928 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

But, but, but the Mother's Day spike is coming!!


Then Memorial Day
Posted by Golfer
Member since Nov 2005
75052 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:10 pm to
Rolling Averages:

Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
20727 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

But, but, but the Mother's Day spike is coming!!

Don't give them any ideas MD is on 5/10 and he said he'll announce on 5/11. Won't be enough time to know the results, we must stay shutdown for 2 more weeks to be sure.
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
22630 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:10 pm to
Hospitals are emptying
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
39991 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:11 pm to
Then Fourth of July

Then Labor Day

Then college football

Then Thanksgiving.

Screw them all for keeping us closed meaning JBE and his people
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

Pride I can tell you that we've had deaths at our nursing home from covid and they weren't in the hospital. I thought we were over the hump but the ADON told me that some who were positive, had meds and were on the right track have regressed and now there are some who were negative but are now showing signs and being retested.


Dude, shhhh. This thread was building nicely till you had to come in and drop some facts.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
39991 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:13 pm to
I think that the most number of cases that can be added to our numbers for the facility is like 8 or so. Then we'll have had a 100% infection rate.

That said, we did what I think is all that we could short of having tests available for employees to do a rapid test before starting their shift. ISO unit was set, residents were tested at the first sign of any issue known related to this ... visitors haven't been allowed in since March 11 and our people are beyond depressed despite best efforts of staff. Not sure what else they can do.
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7716 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

nursing home deaths

quote:

drop facts


I don't doubt old ppl in nursing homes are dieing.
They die from shite all the time.
However, with ventilator use plummeting, it's logical for deaths to as well.

There's also the question did all these ppl die "from" COVID or "with" covid?

What goes on in a nursing home or prison, is not representative of the situation in society as a whole.
Posted by Nawlens Gator
louisiana
Member since Sep 2005
5946 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:16 pm to

LDH found a dead bird in my front yard and added it to the list. I heard they're also counting dogs and cats.

Posted by Brummy
Central, LA
Member since Oct 2009
4662 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

There are still 61 cases where the "Parish is Under Investigation".

They'll wait and see what region they need to slide those into when it comes time to re-evaluate the emergency order.
Posted by El Tigre Grande
Bayou Self
Member since Jan 2006
2643 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:18 pm to
Are the stats from LDH for non Covid deaths available?
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
39991 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

There's also the question did all these ppl die "from" COVID or "with" covid?


I think we're at 8 deaths -- I'm working from home and trying to keep up with the numbers.

I know that 1 was African American and the others were white. What I did find interesting is that there were some, while old and had comorbidities, none were "near death" or looking like they were close. Two were "frail looking" but not like close to impending death.
Seriously. And the ones who WERE looking like that that tested positive are still with us.

Also, only 1 of the deaths so far would be classified as Obese. Just my anecdotal story.
Posted by Golfer
Member since Nov 2005
75052 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Dude, shhhh. This thread was building nicely till you had to come in and drop some facts.



The fact is in most states, Louisiana included, 35%-50% of COVID-19 deaths are from Nursing Homes or LTC facilities.
Posted by Boudreaux35
BR
Member since Sep 2007
22281 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Federal Money > Constituents


He's on his second term. Constituents mean nothing. He has to get as much fed money as possible because between the virus shut down and the oil price plummet, the tax income is a trickle.
Posted by Cymry Teigr
Member since Sep 2012
2138 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

What goes on in a nursing home or prison, is not representative of the situation in society as a whole.


^This.

I really wish they'd break it out. Obviously those in facilities where they're being held, either with or against their will, aren't about to get up and mingle with society. Their number should be reported but as a secondary category.
Posted by uway
Member since Sep 2004
33109 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

and our people are beyond depressed despite best efforts of staff. Not sure what else they can do


Not letting them see their loved ones has to be making it harder on these people to fight disease.

It's so wrong that the government is stealing peace from people in their dying days.

It's so wrong.
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7716 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

we're at 8 deaths


How much higher than typical #s of total deaths are you at?

Anecdotal evidence is still useful.
Thanks for your input!
Posted by JJ27
Member since Sep 2004
61918 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:44 pm to
Cases 28,001 (+341)
Deaths 1,862 (+60)
Hospitalizations 1,601 (-28)
Vents 231 (-13)

Age/Cases/Deaths/Mortality

<18 358 (+9) 1 (0) 0.28%
18-29 3,183 (+51) 8 (0) 0.25%
30-39 4,441 (+70) 35 (0) 0.79%
40-49 4,795 (+41) 67 (+3) 1.4%
50-59 5,391 (+44) 165 (+1) 3.06%
60-69 4,738 (+61) 338 (+7) 7.13%
70+ 5,095 (+65) 1,248(+49) 24.5%

The deaths are all coming from 70+
This post was edited on 4/30/20 at 1:13 pm
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49062 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

However, with ventilator use plummeting, it's logical for deaths to as well.



Ventilator use is plummeting because people are dying on the vents but there aren't many new cases to go on.

For what it's worth, our current deaths per day really aren't out of line with the data.

The median time from onset of symptoms until death is 18 days with a interval of 16-22 days. If you assume that most cases are tested about 3 days after symptom onset, that range is 13-19 days from test to death.

The daily average for deaths the last five days is 48

If you overlay the interval of time to death and look at the case numbers from 4/7 (18 days from 4/26) through 4/17 (13 days from 4/30) the average number of cases was 825.1 per day.

48/825.1 = 5.8% fatality rate

Our overall mortality rate (through known cases) is 6.5%.

Hospitalizations and vent numbers matter.
Posted by darnol91
Member since Jun 2015
749 posts
Posted on 4/30/20 at 12:48 pm to
I don’t get how deaths aren’t affecting hospitalizations and vents more?
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