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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:33 am to AUriptide
No worries baws these two look like rain makers lets hope they stay that way. i just dont see how any tropical storms stay a cat 1 when entering the gulf with so much warm water but not complaining plenty of family in Louisiana. Stay Safe.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:35 am to SlidellCajun
Acccttttuuuuaaallllyyyyyyyyyyy
I believe the value here will be Marco churning up cooler deeper water.
I believe the value here will be Marco churning up cooler deeper water.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:35 am to FLObserver
Did you all see the GFS 06z? Has Marco doing a little power loop before landfall in Texas.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:35 am to AUriptide
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
1m
#Marco (in the NW Caribbean) is moving a bit faster toward the north than expected, likely due to the small center that it formed yesterday. This will take it close to the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and increases the odds of impacts to Louisiana Monday or Tuesday.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:39 am to Purple Spoon
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:44 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Marco will create a weakness for Laura to sort of follow into but the the ridge is expected to whip her around the western edge, turning more northward. The big question is WHEN does that occur? It depends on how strong the ridge builds westward and how far west the ridge itself moves
Everyone who is checking this thread and depending on the updates/advice from the solid weather guys on here, please remember to take everything this guy says with a a grain of salt. He admittedly post things for attention. He's not one of the posters you should be listening to.
There are a few exceptional posters on here when it comes to weather. This jackass is not one of them though, even though he pretends to be.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:45 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I had no idea there was a southernwx.com! Looks good, joining now.
Is it the same people that have americanwx.com? I hope not they're douchebags.
Nope not the same people. SouthernWX has a lot of good people who are just Weather nerds. I’ve been posting with some of them for more than a decade between there and an old forum that most of them came from.
This post was edited on 8/22/20 at 7:51 am
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:49 am to Roll Tide Ravens
so can somebody give me an expectation for LC
these both look like either tropical storms or low cat 1s at landfall, correct?
looks like Marco's easterly side is going to likely impact us...late Tues/early Wed?
these both look like either tropical storms or low cat 1s at landfall, correct?
looks like Marco's easterly side is going to likely impact us...late Tues/early Wed?
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:50 am to rds dc
Little Marco, the storm, is getting pushed around like Little Marco the Senator. 
This post was edited on 8/22/20 at 7:52 am
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:58 am to oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
quote:
There are a few exceptional posters on here when it comes to weather
This. I'm almost at the point that I think once we have a named stormed in the gulf, the stickied thread should be locked and only two or three people should be given access to update it.
Too many are just throwing BS info and sadly, many don't know who the good guys are.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 7:58 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
so can somebody give me an expectation for LC
these both look like either tropical storms or low cat 1s at landfall, correct?
looks like Marco's easterly side is going to likely impact us...late Tues/early Wed?
The Nam shows Marco rain bands in SW LA Monday afternoon
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:00 am to tigerdup07
quote:.
except gustav I was 1 mph away from being a cat 3.
Gustav fizzled out right before landfall. The eye parked itself over Houma for hours in the daylight.
It brought all that water into St Bernard and Laplace.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:02 am to notiger1997
That’s actually not a bad idea. Have two threads, one for RDS and company and the other for the rest of us to talk about pop tarts and Vienna sausage supply.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:04 am to notiger1997
I’m guilty of getting off topic.
This is a very valuable thread to me and many others.
Our OT experts are to be commended.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:04 am to deaconjones35
quote:
and the other for the rest of us to talk about pop tarts and Vienna sausage supply.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:05 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Katrina was a category 3 at landfall, most people don’t realize that.
It went through a eye walk replacement cycle right before landfall. It still had a Cat 5 surge though
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:08 am to deltaland
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Recon continues to observe sharp pressure falls within the tiny center of #Marco - and an increase in winds on the east side to ~65 mph at the surface. This is the risk of the small circulations - they can intensify quickly like this.
Current motion could take it closer to Cuba.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:09 am to deaconjones35
I love these threads. Great source of knowledge. Also see a lot of people talking about how the accuracy of forecasts this year have been off. Well, we can thank Covid for that:
Forbes - Covid Impacting Weather Forecasts
Also, also! Thanks for these threads. Really do enjoy them and find them tremendously helpful.
quote:
Today, with COVID-19 related travel restrictions and economic impact, The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reports an 80% drop in meteorological readings due to flight cancellations of commercial flights. This situation can have a slight impact on the skill of weather forecasts, as the aircraft provide wind and temperature observations at jet stream level, but this error reduces when the uncertainty of the atmosphere as a whole takes over after 24 hours.
However, some of these ‘data gaps’ can be filled by using a combination of increased weather balloon ascents and also sophisticated new satellites that can measure wind speeds through the depth of the lower atmosphere, so the overall impact on forecast quality isn’t expected to be significant.
Forbes - Covid Impacting Weather Forecasts
Also, also! Thanks for these threads. Really do enjoy them and find them tremendously helpful.
Posted on 8/22/20 at 8:15 am to CitizenK
quote:
Laura ain't Katrina and it isn't coming into where another storm JUST pulled a lot of heat out of the water. That is what storms do.
That is what big, slow-moving storms do. There’s plenty of warm water to feed on, but those almost-stationary monsters can cause upwelling of cooler water and deplete their own energy source if they don’t start moving again.
Marco is predicted to be neither big or slow-moving, though, so I’m not really sure why this talking point keeps getting tossed around as some broad and immutable truth that governs all tropical systems. It’s totally nonsensical in this context.
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