re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

TS Laura nearing Puerto Rico this morning:

That radar is misleading. The low level circulation is actually on the NE tip of Puerto Rico. What looks like the heart of the storm with all the convection is the mid level circulation.

So your saying it Marco went from 35-40mph to 50 to 65 mph winds that quick?

Looks like it, small circulations like this can intensify rapidly. Could weaken rapidly also if conditions aren't good.

Looks like the offshore fishing trip I’m supposed to go on Friday may be a washout. I would imagine the under swells will wreak havoc on fishing....

Levi seems to be hinting pretty strongly that he disagrees with the models and thinks this will end up further east into Louisiana. In my opinion, he is one of the best out there. It’s crazy having to closely watch two at the same time.

space city weathers morning update

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Tropical Storm Marco
It appears that Marco has begun to intensify further overnight, and the storm has 50 mph sustained winds. If Marco continues to strengthen further this weekend, up to hurricane strength, it likely will take a more northerly track, toward southeastern Louisiana. However a weaker storm is more likely to move more westward, toward the central or upper Texas coast. Why? Because a stronger storm might have more impetus to barrel into building high pressure over the southeastern United States, whereas a weaker one would be more steerable to the west. Here’s a map showing the National Hurricane Center forecast track (in black) along with a couple of scenarios:

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Scenario One, in which Marco never really makes a leftward turn while over the Gulf, would lead to limited impacts for the Houston metro area and the potential for heavy rainfall in southern Louisiana. Scenario Two will bring a decent amount of rainfall to the Houston region—2 to 6 inches, maybe?—along with elevated tides. At this point I would weight these two scenarios equally, in terms of probability.

Because there is so much uncertainty in the track and intensity, projecting other effects such as a storm surge is sort of fruitless. However, probably a worst case scenario is seas about six feet higher than normal along Galveston by late Monday. Peak winds, of tropical storm strength, would likely arrive here by late Monday. All of this is subject to change. All of this.

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Tropical Storm Laura
Oh, we have many questions about Laura as well. At present the system is fairly disorganized, and contending with its “center” moving over Puerto Rico. What happens over the next 24 to 48 hours will probably have important implications how how menacing Laura ultimately becomes when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s what I mean by that:

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[img]Along the current National Hurricane Center track (shown in black) Laura will traverse the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, followed by the spine of Cuba. If the system is already a struggling tropical storm, it is difficult to see how a particularly organized system emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore the threat of Laura becoming a hurricane next week diminishes. However, if the storm can find a track just south of the islands, then it has a chance to escape the shredder and move into the Gulf later on Monday poised to intensify.

In terms of track, anything is still possible. Under the “no-shred” track above, Texas would probably be threatened by a hurricane next Wednesday or Thursday. Under the shred track, a weaker system probably comes toward Louisiana. But our confidence in a track remains very low.[/img]

LINK

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
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3m
#Marco is forming an eyewall on Cuba radar as it approaches the Yucatan Channel while rapidly intensifying.
Cuban Radar showing eyewall trying to form

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Marco looks intense!! If it becomes a Hurricane a Louisiana Landfall is probably intimate.

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Marco reforming or moving almost due north in the short term. Will be interesting to see if this continues or not.