re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

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Is the southern eye wall getting exposed due to that shear?

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Not likely just yet. What you are seeing appear to be mesovortices within the eye wall.

As to what is making the eye look "weird" right now.

91 you need to check your surge map for the area. I am pretty sure you should be expecting some surge for that area. I believe Slack posted a link a few pages back.

Ill check too.

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It may be a wobble or a jog or whatever, but the last couple of frames Appear to be directly north

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That’s why you can’t base movement off a few frames.

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Just watched Jeff P

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Is he getting 400mph winds yet?

Hendo I heard that. Glad I’ve got some margaritas in the freezer and anxiety meds.

The latest from Nick Mikulas on what we can possibly anticipate in Cenla.

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Here are the most current statistics on Hurricane Laura. This storm is just an absolute monster.

LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

An aircraft is on the way to measure the strength, but at this point, whether this is a category 4 or 5 won’t really have much impact on what this storm does. It’s hard to find historical examples of an event like this, so what I did was look back at what Hurricane Michael did when it tracked inland over Florida and Georgia. What I found, was pretty stunning. 100 mph wind gusts spread roughly 140 miles inland. That would be the equivalent of 100 mph gusts reaching Many Louisiana. 70 mph gusts reached a ridiculous 300 miles inland near the center of Michael, which would be north of Texarkana, or near Arkadelphia Arkansas. The reason I’m drawing this potential parallel is, Michael made landfall at 155 mph. Laura is currently forecast to be 150 mph. Laura is moving at 15 mph, while Michael was moving at 14 mph at landfall. Hurricane force winds extended 45 miles out in Michael, and extend 60 miles out in Laura. So there are some pretty spot on similarities here, and it gives me a decent guide to estimate peak wind gusts parish by parish. Here is what I’m seeing now. Yes, these numbers continue to increase.

Rapides… Peak gusts 60-90 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Vernon… Peak gusts 80-110 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Grant… Peak gusts 50-80 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Avoyelles… Peak gusts 50-70 mph 3-7 inches of rain
Sabine… Peak gusts 65-100 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Natchitoches… Peak gusts 65-95 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Winn… Peak gusts 55-75 mph 3-7 inches of rain
LaSalle… Peak gusts 50-70 mph 3-7 inches of rain
Catahoula… Peak gusts 45-65 mph 3-6 inches of rain
Concordia… Peak gusts 45-65 mph 3-6 inches of rain
Beauregard… Peak gusts 90-120 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Allen… Peak gusts 75-105 mph 4-8 inches of rain
Evangeline… Peak gusts 60-85 mph 3-7 inches of rain
St. Landry… Peak gusts 50-75 mph 3-7 inches of rain

These are incredible wind speeds. You don’t want to be caught out in this. 100% of customers lost power along, and just east of the track 140 miles inland from Michael. Expect to lose power in most areas, and to have a very rough night, especially near the track of the center, and on the eastern side, which includes our entire area. The impacts will be less as you get closer to the Mississippi border, but it appears this will be a historical storm for a large part of the state. There’s not much more time to prepare, so I’m know pretty much watching any wobbles the center might make as it approaches the coast. I’ll update what the aircraft finds when they report back.

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate after 9:00 PM in Beauregard, Allen, Evangeline, and St. Landry parishes, with higher impacts the farther west you go. Vernon, Rapides, and Avoyelles can expect things to go quickly downhill after 11:00 PM, with the worst of conditions farther west. And it looks like things will worsen quickly after 1:00 AM in Sabine, Natchitoches, Grant, Winn, LaSalle, Catahoula, and Concordia Parishes. You’ll want to be hunkered down well before these times. I’ll update all night.

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The eye is going into the border between Cameron and Vermillion Parishes. Lafayette is going to get rocked more than expected.

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Eye is already due south of eastern Cameron

Nice try though

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What time is landfall expected?

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Sometime after midnight.

Wait until he gives him climate change spill