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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:57 am to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:57 am to LSUFanHouston
Looks like the latest GFS isn’t doing much with either storm 96 hours in
2
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:58 am to rds dc
I’m bad with understand all this weather stuff. Is it possible either of these systems hit Louisiana head on?
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:58 am to Duke
quote:
But also realize the hurricane models aren't really intensifying the other one when they do storm scale projections and that would certainly throw a wrench into the intensity forecasts.
Don't pay attention to the pressure and winds, but do pay attention when they show quick strengthening as that is a pretty good signal conditions will be favorable for the storms.
Gotcha.
I'd assume we don't really need pay attention to pressure & winds projections until we see what happens after it crosses the Yucatan?
Posted on 8/21/20 at 10:58 am to lsuman25
I don’t see how Laura survives the land interaction with Cuba if the center goes over land
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:00 am to Glock17
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/31/23 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:01 am to deltaland
quote:
don’t see how Laura survives the land interaction with Cuba if the center goes over land
It’ll probably survive, but I think land interaction will probably help keep it from becoming stronger than a Cat. 1 or 2 in the Gulf. Since it’ll have to recover from the land interaction, rapid strengthening will probably be kept at bay.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:01 am to LSUFanHouston
I just had a thought that concerns me, and for those who know this professionally, please let me know if this is a valid concern.
As Laura comes into the Gulf coast, TD 13 (Marco) will be to the west along the Gulf coast. As Laura begins the natural turn northward and northeastward, she's going to pull Marco behind her in the weakness. Wherever Laura goes could have a serious flooding issue with the rains from it AND all the drawn out rains from Marco going over the same area.
Never thought about that but haven't followed this thread closely until now so maybe it was already mentioned.
As Laura comes into the Gulf coast, TD 13 (Marco) will be to the west along the Gulf coast. As Laura begins the natural turn northward and northeastward, she's going to pull Marco behind her in the weakness. Wherever Laura goes could have a serious flooding issue with the rains from it AND all the drawn out rains from Marco going over the same area.
Never thought about that but haven't followed this thread closely until now so maybe it was already mentioned.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:03 am to TDsngumbo
Looking more like the path Hurricane Georges took by the second.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:04 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Wherever Laura goes could have a serious flooding issue with the rains from it AND all the drawn out rains from Marco going over the same area.
As soon as I got finished reading who I follow, I came back and saw your concern. Here’s an excerpt...
quote:
There is still no clarity about the prediction for Tropical Depressions 14 and TS Laura. Neither system has greatly intensified in the past 24 hours. But it seems logical that both depressions will attain named status by Saturday. I see no need (yet) to alter the path scenarios into SE TX and will argue against rapid strengthening. Keep in mind that when a major hurricane threat looms, most forecast guidance will pick up on that potential well in advance. Examples: Floyd (1999), Sandy (2012), and Maria (2017).
I have some concerns, however, about excess rainfall along the Gulf Coast into lower Appalachia by the middle of next week. There is a sizable risk that two systems may merge and slow down, perhaps getting trapped under an elongated subtropical high. Using the ECMWF model output, it might take until August 29-30 for a cold front to pick up the remnants and allow for drying in Dixie.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:06 am to Glock17
I would ignore the GFS on intensity. It’s been way behind where the storms actually are. For some reason it’s struggling with this system
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:06 am to Prominentwon
quote:
quote:
Wherever Laura goes could have a serious flooding issue with the rains from it AND all the drawn out rains from Marco going over the same area.
As soon as I got finished reading who I follow, I came back and saw your concern. Here’s an excerpt...
quote:
There is still no clarity about the prediction for Tropical Depressions 14 and TS Laura. Neither system has greatly intensified in the past 24 hours. But it seems logical that both depressions will attain named status by Saturday. I see no need (yet) to alter the path scenarios into SE TX and will argue against rapid strengthening. Keep in mind that when a major hurricane threat looms, most forecast guidance will pick up on that potential well in advance. Examples: Floyd (1999), Sandy (2012), and Maria (2017).
I have some concerns, however, about excess rainfall along the Gulf Coast into lower Appalachia by the middle of next week. There is a sizable risk that two systems may merge and slow down, perhaps getting trapped under an elongated subtropical high. Using the ECMWF model output, it might take until August 29-30 for a cold front to pick up the remnants and allow for drying in Dixie.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:06 am to TDsngumbo
can really see the LLC on TD14 on the visible satellite
but the storms are so far away from it
but the storms are so far away from it
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:13 am to The Boat
quote:
Looking more like the path Hurricane Georges took by the second.
That's a great call on an analog.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:15 am to Duke
Once I get my forecasting gig I’d like to be a “weather historian” on the side. I was watching a doc one time and that title came up under the guy they were interviewing and I thought that sounds like a pretty sweet side hustle if you like weather and history. I see these paths and immediately recall a similar one.
This post was edited on 8/21/20 at 11:16 am
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:18 am to The Boat
quote:
I was watching a doc one time and that title came up under the guy they were interviewing and I thought that sounds like a pretty sweet side hustle if you like weather and history
Now there's a podcast I would follow.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:23 am to HogX
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:25 am to fr33manator
How long until a model shows them both going up the Mississippi? You know it’s coming. Every time a storm is in the Gulf we get a model right up the river. It’s like an inside joke or something.
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:25 am to The Boat
I remember being a wee lad in Death Valley watching LSU vs Idaho when all the older people were worried about Georges hitting in next few days.
I didn’t give a frick bc we were skull dragging Idaho that night but my parents had already packed our bags to leave for Memphis the next morning
I didn’t give a frick bc we were skull dragging Idaho that night but my parents had already packed our bags to leave for Memphis the next morning
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:26 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 8/21/20 at 11:28 am to PhillyTiger90
quote:
I remember being a wee lad in Death Valley watching LSU vs Idaho when all the older people were worried about Georges hitting in next few days.
Dan Borne was announcing evacuation orders over the PA.
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