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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:43 pm to notiger1997
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:43 pm to notiger1997
The intensity of the models sometimes exaggerates on the higher end and the lower end fairly often. Especially storms this far out. Performance wise the computer models have been pretty awful this hurricane season.
If there's anywhere that computer models need to improve it's intensity forecasts. They're far more trustworthy on their forecasted paths.
If there's anywhere that computer models need to improve it's intensity forecasts. They're far more trustworthy on their forecasted paths.
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 5:45 pm
1
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:56 pm to jgoodw318
quote:
So how screwed is my trip to gulf shores next week? Flying into Pensacola Wednesday evening. Flying back Sunday. When will I know that I should probably cancel it?
You are pretty screwed. There is always a tropical threat in the gulf around late August and Labor Day.
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 5:57 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 6:29 pm to jgoodw318
quote:
We all can’t be perfect like you, Mr Perfect.
Please don’t try. He’s a douchebag to most everyone on this website.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 6:43 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 8/19/20 at 6:44 pm to deuce985
quote:
The intensity of the models sometimes exaggerates on the higher end and the lower end fairly often.
The tropical models (looking at you HWRF) do have a strong bias but the globals don't typically overdo it. If anything they will end up underdoing it. But we need a good center for any of that to matter much.
Just clarifying your point a little, not like a correction or anything.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 6:52 pm to Hulkklogan
Double Whammy!
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 6:54 pm to rds dc
Looks like we got three heading for the gulf?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 7:05 pm to GeauxTigers80
The GFS-para has been spin up happy but that solution is certainly one possibility, with the 18z GFS no development being on the other extreme.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 7:17 pm to rds dc
18z HWRF & HMON see a favorable environment for strengthening on the approach to S. Florida, if there is a system and it stays north of the big islands.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 7:44 pm to rds dc
Next week is going to be really interesting around the northern gulf coast
Posted on 8/19/20 at 7:44 pm to rds dc
my guess is 97L hits Morgan City Monday evening as a Tropical Storm or level 1 hurricane.
98L first hits South Fla Monday afternoon at 2 and then gets back out into he Gulf for a 2nd landfall early Wednesday cat 3 between Destin and Apalachicola.
The TV folks really don't have much to say about these systems yet....
Yet.
98L first hits South Fla Monday afternoon at 2 and then gets back out into he Gulf for a 2nd landfall early Wednesday cat 3 between Destin and Apalachicola.
The TV folks really don't have much to say about these systems yet....
Yet.
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:06 pm to rds dc
quote:
see a favorable environment for strengthening on the approach to S. Florida, if there is a system and it stays north of the big islands.
The environment looks very favorable heading into the Bahamas but it'd need to be at least a decently organized TS to really take advantage.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:10 pm to SlidellCajun
What are you looking at to make this prediction? Not a smart arse question, the only thing I know how to find is NOAA and I’m trying to find more information.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:11 pm to jgoodw318
listening to Mike on his weather page.
He's made some predictions.
He says people are going to wake up tomorrow and say "WTF"
He's made some predictions.
He says people are going to wake up tomorrow and say "WTF"
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 8:12 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:13 pm to jgoodw318
It’s his gut feeling. Pay attention to what rds says and you’ll be fine.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:14 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
listening to Mike on his weather page.
He's made some predictions.
He says people are going to wake up tomorrow and say "WTF"
I'm not sayin' he's wrong, but Mike's site is a good place to go for aggregated information from people that know what they're talking about. Mike's site should not be the place to go to hear what Mike thinks...
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:15 pm to Ba Ba Boooey
Of course it is but he uses some rationale to back it up.
He also puts more stock in some models over others and says EURO and GFS are asleep on these two storms.
And nothing wrong with rds input either.
Why not listen to both?
He also puts more stock in some models over others and says EURO and GFS are asleep on these two storms.
And nothing wrong with rds input either.
Why not listen to both?
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 9:21 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:16 pm to SlidellCajun
The one closest to the GOM I assume is 97 and the other red one 98?? Thanks.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:16 pm to RummelTiger
why not?
He's looking at the same models everyone else look at. He points out which models have been most accurate and which haven't.
Why not listen to him?
He's looking at the same models everyone else look at. He points out which models have been most accurate and which haven't.
Why not listen to him?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:17 pm to SlidellCajun
Mike Naso?
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