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Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/19/20 at 2:39 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/19/20 at 2:39 pm to rds dc
quote:
ETA: bit more Euro EPS members showing a system in the Gulf vs prior runs. About in line with the 12z GEFSv12.
Would agree. Some certainly more intense than others.
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 2:40 pm
1
Posted on 8/19/20 at 3:50 pm to rds dc
Is that 98L?
If so, we better pay real close attention the next couple of days
If so, we better pay real close attention the next couple of days
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 4:16 pm to rds dc
I’m sure those models are nonsense...
quote:
rds dc
Posted on 8/19/20 at 4:28 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
PhillyTiger90
Posted on 8/19/20 at 4:31 pm to rds dc
The thing that is a bit concerning about many of those ensemble members is how quickly they ramp up the intensity once it clears Cuba/Florida.
Keep at least half an eye on it until around Friday evening, Then we will have a better idea of what to expect
Keep at least half an eye on it until around Friday evening, Then we will have a better idea of what to expect
Posted on 8/19/20 at 4:39 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
The thing that is a bit concerning about many of those ensemble members is how quickly they ramp up the intensity once it clears Cuba/Florida.
This is similar to what a portion of the 12z GEFSv12 members show. This tells us that a portion of the ensemble members are seeing a favorable to very favorable environment over the Gulf at that time. However, almost 2/3s of the Euro EPS members don't do anything with 98L and the Hurricane Wind Probability % is still very low.
ETA: 12z GEFSv12 (upgraded version with 32 members that is running in the test environment)
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 4:48 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Just now updated HMON - Cat 3 right into Miami at end of run (5 days)
The 12z HAFS-B splits the difference b/w the HMON and HWRF and looks like it will shot the Florida Straits with a pretty big ridge over the top.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 4:50 pm to rds dc
Oh frick. Here we go.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:04 pm to rds dc
shite.....I don't like it when storms enter the gulf in that area. They usually don't push over to Texas and they seldom make that big bend and hit the Panhandle.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:05 pm to rds dc
just what we fricking need right now in the middle of this shite show virus. give destroya an excuse to shut new orleans down for another year and watch every business in it go bankrupt sucking on the government tit for help.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:08 pm to Ponchy Tiger
the storm is already looking like it's starting to get organized so it will be interesting to see what they show tomorrow. by the time we wake up it might be a depression.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:13 pm to deuce985
quote:
the storm is already looking like it's starting to get organized so it will be interesting to see what they show tomorrow. by the time we wake up it might be a depression.
What we need is for it run dead center over the islands, Now while it is weak. It might just break the whole thing up.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:14 pm to rds dc
So how screwed is my trip to gulf shores next week? Flying into Pensacola Wednesday evening. Flying back Sunday. When will I know that I should probably cancel it?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:15 pm to deuce985
Steve from WAFB gave a nice update today on Facebook. Basically both storms likely to come into the gulf but the intensity is uncertain right now.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:17 pm to jgoodw318
quote:
So how screwed is my trip to gulf shores next week? Flying into Pensacola Wednesday evening. Flying back Sunday. When will I know that I should probably cancel it?
97 could be around gulf shores on Sunday 98 won't be till the middle of next week. I'd go ahead with your trip and keep an eye on it
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:20 pm to catholictigerfan
quote:
97 could be around gulf shores on Sunday 98 won't be till the middle of next week. I'd go ahead with your trip and keep an eye on it
I’m flying in the middle of next week. We’re you referring to this Sunday when your we’re talking about 97? Or the following Sunday?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:21 pm to catholictigerfan
Well, you can already see 98L forming slowly so it's probably going to be something depending on the path. If it just straight shots and misses everything that ain't good. Don't trust computer models on intensity.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 5:36 pm to catholictigerfan
quote:
97 could be around gulf shores on Sunday 98 won't be till the middle of next week. I'd go ahead with your trip and keep an eye on it
How can 97 get to northern gulf by this Sunday?
And if 98 is going to be coming in mid next week then how can he keep his trip planned?
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