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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:18 pm to tiger91
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:18 pm to tiger91
97L is ahead of 98L but the two could make landfall in different places of the U.S at the same time with 98L making a 2nd landfall a few days later at the northern part of the gulf.
1
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:25 pm to SlidellCajun
Mike who?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:29 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Why not listen to him?
For the same reason we don't listen to Dukke v...
Besides, if I have to really explain it to you, then you just go ahead and keep on getting info from him.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:34 pm to jgoodw318
quote:
Mike who?
Mike Jones
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:35 pm to jgoodw318
not sure what last name is.
He has a weather page called Mikes Weather Page that I check out during hurricane season and he does some live stuff that I like despite what some think around here.
He has a weather page called Mikes Weather Page that I check out during hurricane season and he does some live stuff that I like despite what some think around here.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:41 pm to purple18
quote:
Next week is going to be really interesting around the northern gulf coast
And next week, I'm supposed to be in Birmingham for a yearly MRI and checkup for my 13 yr old daughter...meaning my home in extreme south Mobile County is gonna be basically abandoned.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:43 pm to Duke
Looking at 98L earlier today looked like it was getting organized slowly to me. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a depression by Friday maybe a little earlier.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:45 pm to SlidellCajun
When in doubt for landfall always pick a Morgan City landfall for a hurricane you can't go wrong with that pick. Seems like more often than not it's correct or very close. Morgan City has to be the arse of the earth bullseye when it comes to hurricanes for some reason.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:51 pm to deuce985
quote:
Looking at 98L earlier today looked like it was getting organized slowly to me.
Agreed. Some signs of a spiral band getting set up. Slow evolution looks to be the story but wouldn't be surprised if we had a TD official by morning.
Going to be dealing with some shear for a bit too, so should be a pretty slow progression regardless of getting an official designation. At least till it gets to the Bahamas.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:56 pm to TidenUP
Wishcasters tonight
Posted on 8/19/20 at 8:57 pm to rds dc
97L is shedding most of it's deep convection tonight, which is consistent with a system battling dry air.
The flow across the Caribbean hasn't been as fast as it sometimes can be but it has still been quick enough to not do 97L any favors. The system has been guided by the ridge to it's north but it will slow down as it reaches the edge of the ridge over the next day or two. This will allow for vorticity (spin) to "pile up" in the WCAB and give 97L a brief chance to gain named status.
After that, both the Euro and GFS show an upper level trough anchored across the Gulf that will shred any system trying to move westward.
While the GFS-para shows a different scenario with the axis of the UL trough being far enough west to provide a favorable poleward outflow channel vs. shredding shear.
These aren't huge differences but do illistruate how complicated the setup over the Gulf will be over the coming days. Then beyond that, the future of 97L will play a role in what happens to 98L. If 97L is able to develop and move into the Gulf then the upper level outflow from 97L will impact the downstream environment and could have negative impacts on 98L. As of right now, it appears that 98L is the system that poses the greatest risk to the Gulf (has been that way all along) but there are a number of scenarios that don't really do much with 98L or 97L.
The flow across the Caribbean hasn't been as fast as it sometimes can be but it has still been quick enough to not do 97L any favors. The system has been guided by the ridge to it's north but it will slow down as it reaches the edge of the ridge over the next day or two. This will allow for vorticity (spin) to "pile up" in the WCAB and give 97L a brief chance to gain named status.
After that, both the Euro and GFS show an upper level trough anchored across the Gulf that will shred any system trying to move westward.
While the GFS-para shows a different scenario with the axis of the UL trough being far enough west to provide a favorable poleward outflow channel vs. shredding shear.
These aren't huge differences but do illistruate how complicated the setup over the Gulf will be over the coming days. Then beyond that, the future of 97L will play a role in what happens to 98L. If 97L is able to develop and move into the Gulf then the upper level outflow from 97L will impact the downstream environment and could have negative impacts on 98L. As of right now, it appears that 98L is the system that poses the greatest risk to the Gulf (has been that way all along) but there are a number of scenarios that don't really do much with 98L or 97L.
This post was edited on 8/19/20 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:00 pm to JackieTreehorn
quote:
Wishcasters tonight
Trying to figure out how to get both of these storms into Texas.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:07 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
not?
He's looking at the same models everyone else look at. He points out which models have been most accurate and which haven't.
Why not listen to him?
He’s a joke. He has a good site but he gets hyped up for any blob in the gulf
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:12 pm to JackieTreehorn
I would hope you aren't referring to me as a wishcaster. I hope nothing comes from either of these waves.
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:12 pm to rds dc
I remember Levi said the gulf had to be primed for rapid intensification... does the 97 then 98 scenario creating a primed atmosphere?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:23 pm to TidenUP
Levi's video tonight telling everyone why 98L still looks like shite to him while the untrained are believing it's REALLY starting to get its shite together
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:26 pm to rt3
Special Message from NHC Issued 20 Aug 2020 02:23 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located east of the Lesser Antilles, at 11 PM AST/EDT (0300 UTC).
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located east of the Lesser Antilles, at 11 PM AST/EDT (0300 UTC).
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:30 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Special Message from NHC Issued 20 Aug 2020 02:23 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located east of the Lesser Antilles, at 11 PM AST/EDT (0300 UTC).
east of the Lesser Antilles...
that's gotta be 98L right?
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:30 pm to rt3
yes
Posted on 8/19/20 at 9:31 pm to lsuman25
Oh Lawd
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