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Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:24 am to Burhead
quote:
Now Russia has shut off gas supplies to Poland.
Good. All Russian shipments should be shut off. Russia may think it is punishing the customers here, but it will be Russia that bears the loss.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:25 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
TBH I don't know what Putin could be up to. The troops he has in Transnistria are said to be exceptionally poor quality. To do anything there he would need reinforcements that he doesn't have. Maybe this along with the other stuff is him trying to build a case for mass mobilization.
The so called Tranistrian Republic has a force of about 7500 paramilitary personnel. Their civilian militia force is even larger. They fought against Moldova In 1990-92.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:26 am to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
What are the chances other players join russia...like China/Iran/NK?
I don’t foresee anyone joining force with Russia unless this thing totally spirals into WWIII. Even their quasi proxies have turned them down (Belarus and Kazakhstan). China has much more to lose and is probably wide eyed watching Russian poor performance and Russian made equipment losses.
What can NK realistically do conventionally? It’s not like they have a massive navy to transport significant troops to the region and land transport would make them sitting ducks.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:29 am to Burhead
Trent Telenko said several weeks ago that the Russian logistics window would close in late April or early May, after which their supply chain would be so degraded they wouldn't be able to conduct offensive, or perhaps even defensive operations. That may be happening now and Putin may see escalation as his only way out.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:30 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
unless this thing totally spirals into WWIII.
Bingo.
I'd bet China/NK/Iran/etc join. Anything to take America and friends down.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:31 am to Burhead
quote:
Now Russia has shut off gas supplies to Poland.
Poland had already been moving away from Russian energy and stopped oil and coal imports. Under Trump they began to receive LNG shipments from us for the first time. I don’t think this is a big deal for Poland.
We spent all this money in aid to these countries we should spend the money to cooperate with domestic O&G producers and refiners to open up the flood gates to pump as much O&G as possible for domestic use and export. Wont happen, but it’s what we should do.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:32 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
What can NK realistically do conventionally?
They can make some absolutely electric propaganda videos to turn around the Russian morale
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:32 am to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Bingo.
It's not happening.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:34 am to Jim Rockford
And escalation requires bringing his people along with him. Russian media is pumping out constant "the west is coming for you" messages. Younger people who can work VPN can get foreign media and get a better sense of the situation, but the broad general Russian public is being prepared for a war with the west.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:34 am to AU86
If Russia goes into Moldova I would keep an eye on Romania. I don't think Romania will take this lightly. Moldova would be smart to reunite with Romania. Moldova is already the poorest country in Europe and it would provide them protection. If it is not too late. Their President was recently elected and is pro-western. She defeated pro Russian who had been in office for awhile. Putin had to take notice of this. Another link to the chain of his eventual action/plan.
This post was edited on 4/26/22 at 10:40 am
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:35 am to TigerDoc
quote:
The brain drain is clearly having a significant stupidification effect on Russian society. Today’s FSB reveal of a supposed UKR neo-Nazi assassination squad is case in point
1st a book inscription with instruction to kill signed by “Signature Unclear”. 2nd is purchase of “SIMs” LINK
quote:
Russian FSB has fabricated a "plot" to kill Russian TV propagandist Solovyov. Allegedly by Ukrainian SBU and Nazis. One of the "evidences" is neonazi inscription on a book. Signed by "Signature unclear". Yes, FSB got an order to sign it with a "signature unclear" - and did so! LINK
Pictures on the links but SIMs is a copy of the SIMs game
Also just a run of the mill Nazi t-shirt that all assassination squads would totally carry
This post was edited on 4/26/22 at 10:36 am
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:36 am to Spaceman Spiff
quote:
Bingo.
I'd bet China/NK/Iran/etc join. Anything to take America and friends down.
Then maybe. China may find it in their best interest to chill and buy time for their own ambitions in the future. Ukraine has shown they can’t be ready militarily given much of their equipment is Russian made and they don’t have a massive navy. Of course they could attempt a rapid program to do just that, so who knows.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:36 am to OldmanBeasley
Bombard Seoul, launch a missile at Japan, etc. Doubtful because China doesn't want a war in its backyard at the present time but there are some things NK could do that would be a major distraction.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:37 am to AU86
quote:
If Russia goes into Moldova I would keep an eye on Romania. I don't think Romania will take this lightly. Moldova would be smart to reunite with Romania. Moldova is already the poorest country in Europe and it would provide them protection. If it is not too late.
That’s where my thinking is, does this push Romania from supplier/transporter to active participant? Do they form a coalition with Czechia and Poland?
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:41 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Trent Telenko said several weeks ago that the Russian logistics window would close in late April or early May, after which their supply chain would be so degraded they wouldn't be able to conduct offensive, or perhaps even defensive operations.
Yeah the lines in Donbas havent moved so the "new" offensive hasnt gained much if anything. Watch the Kherson area the next 4 or 5 days.
I wonder if 9 May Putin calls it a victory and we essentially go back to what we had 24 Feb.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:42 am to DabosDynasty
I heard several weeks ago that if Moldova is threatened Romania would mobilize.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:43 am to Lakeboy7
I think the longer this goes on, the less happy Ukraine is going to be with simply going back to Feb 24.
Ukraine is going to be angry and have a lot of shiny toys with a broke as frick Russian logistics chain.
Everyone keeps saying it would be a tough row to hoe but Ukraine might just decide to enforce the “don’t start shite, wont be shite” philosophy.
Ukraine is going to be angry and have a lot of shiny toys with a broke as frick Russian logistics chain.
Everyone keeps saying it would be a tough row to hoe but Ukraine might just decide to enforce the “don’t start shite, wont be shite” philosophy.
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:46 am to StormyMcMan
You'd think that would give them pause, but Russia's boomers are probably even more gullible than ours 
Posted on 4/26/22 at 10:49 am to Dataisbeautiful
quote:
Ukraine is going to be angry and have a lot of shiny toys with a broke as frick Russian logistics chain.
Watch that Kherson area in the next week, its about to be pound town.
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