re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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fwiw, Caspian Report is another really good channel covering geopolitical issues. it covers basically the entire world but has obviously spent the last two months covering ukraine. really recommend it

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It is the second month of war in Eastern Europe. Everyone is wondering when the second great Russian offensive will begin. This one will be focused on pinching off the Donbas, possibly to partition Ukraine into an eastern zone. The Russians seem to have withdrawn completely from Kyiv, relieving the Chernihiv Pocket and liberating Sumy. They leave behind scenes of unspeakable atrocity, borne of ill-disciplined soldiery and a breakdown of morale. Meanwhile they are regrouping for the next great effort which will take one of two forms. The Russians will either try a shallow envelopment of the Donbas that encompasses only the two breakaway republics, or they will try a deep envelopment targeting Dnipro and the Dnieper crossings. We have yet to find out which they will choose. Either option is stymied by continued resistance at Mariupol, which has devolved into a grudge fight against the neo-fascist Ukrainian Azov Battalion. God knows what horrors could be found in that city. There are reports that the Russians have moved mobile crematoriums into Mariupol to incinerate a numberless dead. And if Mariupol complicates the southern sector of Russian aims, so continued resistance around Kharkiv complicates the northern sector. Kharkiv could become the next Mariupol when the next Russian offensive kicks off. As we speak the Russians are mobilizing 60,000 more reserves for the coming attack. The Russians are continuing to play the long game.

The long game could be working. If Western aims are for Ukraine to outlast Putin’s regime, it is Putin’s aim that his war outlasts NATO unity. Germany and Hungary are the weakest links. Germany continues to feed billions daily into the Russian war chest in exchange for liquid natural gas. Despite announcing a Zeitenwende in German history, or “turning point” in its views on international security, Germany continues to waffle on arms deliveries and reducing its dependence on Russian energy. Putin relented on accepting payments in rubles for German energy imports. Hungary’s Orban wants nothing to do with supporting NATO aims in the war. Meanwhile, Macron commenced name calling Poland’s Morawiecki an anti-semite at a time when Poland’s PM is hosting millions of Ukrainian refugees.

But just as NATO seemed to show signs of tension, Boris Johnson goes to Kyiv. It is a soft signal of the UK’s nuclear independence in international affairs. As a nuclear power, it matters when the head of government shows up in a warzone among the rubble of Kyiv’s streets. In this critical moment in history, nuclear powers signal their power to one another. France has three of its four nuclear missile submarines at sea right now. The United States signals lightly by flying nuclear bombers off Poland and Romania. At sea there must be epic games of cat and mouse between Russian nuclear missile submarines and the NATO submarines that shadow them. Meanwhile Russia is moving nuclear weapons into Belarus. The world’s other nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan, China and South Africa, either abstained or voted against the measure which ejected Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. Each nuclear power is wary of its influence on global crises.

Britain has backed its commitment by delivering Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which are intended to protect Odessa. This could effectively neutralize the amphibious threat to Odessa. It secures the seaborne flank of Ukrainian forces that are battling to retake Kherson. Meanwhile the Ukrainian’s took delivery of a powerful S-400 surface-to-air missile system from Slovakia. Even a single piece of powerful weaponry like this can help secure a wide margin of airspace, bringing Russian aircraft down to low level where they can be picked off by shoulder-fired missiles. The US is now mulling over larger scale deployments of forces from CONUS to Europe. The great buildup of NATO conventional forces will continue throughout this Spring and into Summer and into beyond. This is going to be a long war. The Russians have deep pockets to try and try again. Putin is not a Western politician. As long as his regime can stay afloat amidst the rising tide of economic distress and battlefield disappointments, he will continue to drive this war relentlessly until he’s achieved a victory or a face-saving ‘exit’ from this quagmire. It doesn’t matter what the cost is to him, his army or to the innocent of Ukraine.

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Not only has anyone never denied it. We freaking publicized it. 1)Green Berets are not tier 1 guys or whatever we’re calling them these days. 2)Green Berets and many conventional units including national guard units were regularly in Ukraine prior to the invasion helping to train the Ukrainian Army but left before the invasion. And 3) What would our Tier 1/JSOC/SMU units be doing in Ukraine during this fight? Their mission isn’t to go up against Russian tank columns in a conventional fight. At best they’re pretty far behind the lines training Ukrainians on how to shoot Javelins and switchblades IMO

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2. Based on the results of the first 6 weeks they have done a hell of a job training the Ukies and need to keep up the good work.

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According to the s&p, Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt

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According to S&P, a selective default is declared when an entity has defaulted on a specific obligation but not its entire debt....

"We will sue, because we undertook all necessary action so that investors would receive their payments," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper on Monday.

"We will show the court proof of our payments, to confirm our efforts to pay in rubles, just as we did in foreign currency. It won't be a simple process," he added. He did not say who Russia planned to sue.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a press conference last week that any default would be "artificial" because Russia has the dollars to pay — it just can't access them.

"There are no grounds for a real default," Peskov said. "Not even close."

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Probably referring to their energy exports, which has been bringing in billions of $ per month.

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so Russia offered to pay in rubles instead. The S&P basically said that doesn't work like that and your are in default.

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They’ll take Putin’s $600 million dollar yacht first.

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