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Posted on 3/13/22 at 11:52 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Interesting thread about Russia's capability to hit convoys in Western Ukraine. TL;DR they don't have the Intel or assets to carry it out. The best they can do is lob missiles at static targets, which they did today. Given the lack of accuracy of their guidance systems, one straying into NATO territory is a matter of when, not if.
I'd be careful believing this as 100% fact. I've heard/read a few people say that Russia has "smart bombs" and we know they have them. Kaufman, the guy I mentioned in an earlier post, is one who has said it. His theory is that Russia doesn't have a massive stockpile of them, but they do have them. He feels they are strategically sitting on them right now as a way of guarding against future need if the war escalates and drags NATO into it.
Look up War on the Rocks podcast and listen to the most recent two or three episodes. Kaufman is on there. He seems to know his shite.
This post was edited on 3/13/22 at 11:54 pm
Posted on 3/13/22 at 11:56 pm to LegendInMyMind
The guy goes into that. They don't have the real time Intel to locate and identify targets, and air defense in western Ukraine is very active. It would be high risk with little chance of success .
Posted on 3/14/22 at 12:02 am to Mr Happy
quote:
China has a well thought out 50 year plan and won’t deviate from it.
This. China is playing chess while we're arguing about what bathroom people can use.
The problem with long term plans is they become increasingly dependent on variables the planner doesn't control. We have our problems but so does China, among them an economy built on a shaky foundation, significant ethnic tensions, and an impending demographic time bomb. While they're waiting patiently for their master plan to come together, their house may burn down around them.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 1:58 am to Jim Rockford
Can't decide if this should make me feel better about America or worse about the world.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 3:49 am to Dr RC
Like a grown up Eric Cartman.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 4:22 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Three separate back-channel efforts are underway to start negotiations to end the war. But so far, all have hit the stone wall of President Vladimir V. Putin’s refusal to engage in any serious negotiation. w/@sangerNYT LINK
Why would he? He’s winning. Putin doesn’t consider losing a few thousand conscripts and a hundred or so tanks to be some great military disaster like we are all conditioned to. He’ll take his objectives in due time.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 5:04 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:No, he's not winning. The only way Putin wins this war is with the consent of the Ukrainian government and military.
Why would he? He’s winning.
Not gonna happen.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 5:49 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:What are his objectives? I once he take them, then what?
He’ll take his objectives in due time.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 5:54 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
No, he's not winning. The only way Putin wins this war is with the consent of the Ukrainian government and military.
He’s winning according to his standards. Ukraine is putting up a hell of a fight but they’re losing more ground and more troops everyday. Most of the news of grand Ukrainian victories are wishful thinking for the most part. If anything Russia has regained the initiative the last few days.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 5:56 am to WDE24
quote:Ive always said I believe it’s everyone East of the Dniepr River.
What are his objectives?
quote:The world stamps it’s feet for a few months while slowly and quietly rolling back the sanctions and eventually abandoning any insurgency or resistance, if there even is one.
I once he take them, then what?
Posted on 3/14/22 at 6:01 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:I don’t see any reason sanctions would be lifted at the point or the insurgency just stops. How does Russia survive the sanctions that long?
The world stamps it’s feet for a few months while slowly and quietly rolling back the sanctions and eventually abandoning any insurgency or resistance, if there even is one.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 6:03 am to WDE24
quote:
I don’t see any reason sanctions would be lifted at the point or the insurgency just stops.
People are going to want to do business in Russia. Those people will pressure their governments to ease up on sanctions. The insurgency will be put down after we abandon them. Just like every other insurgency or resistance we’ve abandoned in the past once we got bored or it was politically expedient to do so.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 6:40 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:That is possible. It’s going to be a pretty big risk for the first couple that do that. Who do you think it will be?
People are going to want to do business in Russia. Those people will pressure their governments to ease up on sanctions.
This post was edited on 3/14/22 at 6:41 am
Posted on 3/14/22 at 6:56 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
The problem with long term plans is they become increasingly dependent on variables the planner doesn't control. We have our problems but so does China, among them an economy built on a shaky foundation, significant ethnic tensions, and an impending demographic time bomb
Yeah I agree they have issues.
I just don’t see them deviating to jump into supporting Russia in Ukraine. It doesn’t align with anything they need unless they can grab a large control of wheat to feed that population.
They won’t play in the micro unless it aligns with their strategy or helps push it forward. They won’t come rescue Putin unless there is upside in it for them, and right now I can’t see what that is
Posted on 3/14/22 at 7:02 am to Coeur du Tigre
Even then it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Putin.
This post was edited on 3/14/22 at 7:13 am
Posted on 3/14/22 at 7:29 am to Dr RC
quote:
Putin is probably setting up the Syrians and Chechens to take the blame for all the horrors inflicted on Ukraine. He won't be able to keep the Russian population in the dark forever so these units will be his scapegoat domestically even though he's obviously going to use them for the urban combat that will be needed to pacify the major cities.
We disagree on a lot, but this is a good point.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 8:28 am to WDE24
quote:
How does Russia survive the sanctions that long?
They dont. Ultimately it will take regime change/civil war.
Posted on 3/14/22 at 8:56 am to Brummy
Yea I’m not trained in that
Posted on 3/14/22 at 8:56 am to LSUBoo
quote:
Elon Musk @elonmusk
I hereby challenge Vladimir Putin to single combat
Stakes are Ukraine
Don’t be a pussy Vlad
This post was edited on 3/14/22 at 8:58 am
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