re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Rod Dreher is flipping out that Putin, the great patron of the Russian Orthodox Church, is hiring Muslim mercenaries to kill Ukrainian Orthodox Christians. I can see his point.

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It is the first month of war in Eastern Europe. The Siege of Mariupol exhibits no shortage of both courage and barbarity. Rumors swirl of high civilian casualty rates in that city, but no one knows for certain yet. It is defended doggedly by the Azov Battalion, a crack unit not without sins. They are, in fact, a far right extremist paramilitary unit that Putin's regime easily exploits in their "denazification" narrative. There is a lot of old baggage in this war that few in the West will ever understand. In any case, its become a grudge fight where the Russians can not unreasonably pretend they are fighting neo-Nazis. The siege is holding up the Russian advance into the Ukrainian field army's rear along the Donbas. Its suggestive that the Ukrainians may attempt to relieve the siege.

NATO's likely misstep in the Polish MiG-29 fiasco has stoked Putin's temerity in striking targets near the Polish border with missiles, particularly a military camp where US Special Forces recently helped train the Ukrainians. Russia is signaling a threat against NATO arms transshipment points. It comes at an unwelcome time when the NATO Reaction Force is not in position yet to lend any credibility to allied conventional military power. But given the heretofore abysmal performance of the Russian Army, its a bluff that NATO may find the confidence to call.

The Chechen supreme warlord Kadyrov is visiting his troops, "Putin's Cossacks," fighting in Ukraine. Their record for human rights abuses are well documented. Its also the case of that of the Wagner Group, a Russian sponsored mercenary group. The Russians are recruiting Syrians hard bitten to urban fighting during their dreadful civil war. Russia have most recently appealed to China for the supply of arms as Russian stocks of munitions deplete rapidly. China is locked in an embarrassing position that threatens to undermine their own agenda just to support their biggest rival in Central Asia. What comes of this request will be unusually telling of China's turn. They would not readily sell their munitions stocks to Russia if it would jeopardize their readiness to act against Taiwan.

The war drags on now with almost banal violence as the Russian offensive stalls out before the gates of Ukraine's cities. Fears of Russian chemical weapon attacks continue, though that has not come to pass yet. Could the Russians fear additional vitriol and consequences of breaking that taboo? Experience with Putin's sense of restraint suggests otherwise. The use of chemical weapons is not taboo to Russian battle doctrine.

What will be of interest this week is Russia's continuing slide into economic abyss and how that will affect the Kremlin's decision-making domestically and diplomatically. NATO's response to attacks in proximity to Poland will also be important to note. NATO could build a de facto no-fly zone by allow surface-to-air missile batteries to cover the Western Ukrainian border. That would be a dicey proposal, but it could protect those vital arms transshipment routes.

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fan be called on to fight that fight? Chechens and Syrians. They aren't being brought in, necessarily, because Russia absolutely needs the forces. They're there to do the dirty work

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NEW: Russian naval forces have established a blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, cutting of the country from sea trade: British Defense Intelligence agency.

Russian naval forces continue to conduct missile strikes from the sea & could do an amphibious landing, UK assesses. LINK

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The Kremlin may be seeking to take direct control of Belarusian units to deploy them in Ukraine but faces Belarusian resistance. Independent Ukrainian media reported on March 13 that Russian commanders are taking control of Belarusian units to suppress Belarusian soldiers’ efforts to resist going to war in Ukraine and reported  “riots” in some Brest-based units.[6] ISW cannot independently confirm these reports through other sources at this time; if confirmed, the reports support ISW’s previous assessment that the Kremlin seeks to bring Belarus into the war but faces resistance from both Belarusian soldiers and Belarusian President Lukashenko. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces established a base for repairing and restoring military equipment in Kulichikha, Belarus, (17 km from the border) on March 13.[7]

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After 2014-2015 I found myself regularly arguing that the Russian mil is not 12ft tall. After 2022 I will probably spend much of my time arguing that it isn't 4ft tall either. History teaches us to moderate these kinds of impressions, neither extreme is especially helpful. 22/

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Didn't the Central African Republic make a video last week saying they stand with Russia?

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