re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

China won't touch this situation with a 10ft pole. Prior to this Russian request, the US and China were already lined up for high level talks in Rome this week to discuss what's going on in Ukraine. This means the US and China understand the seriousness of the situation and are willing to talk through it. China isn't going to blow up that partnership to save a two bit dictator who bit off more than he could chew.

The only way I could see China providing weapons and support to Russia is if Putin offers them valuable land and/or incredibly cheap access to Russian oil. That said, would Xi really trust Putin to keep his promises? I wouldn't.

China doesn’t care about oil nearly as much as we think they do. They’re trying to control the world by cornering the market on EV raw materials. They’re also trying to fix their ghastly smog problems. Oil doesn’t help them in the long run.

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Not that I want to find out, but do you think China is a paper tiger like Russia when it comes to equipment etc? Partially? Not at all? Once you look under the hood.

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Not wanting to find out either, but if I had to guess, paper Tiger on equipment, not paper Tiger on their military actually believing in any cause they’re given. They also have a substantially larger military aged population that I’d bet is much more in fighting shape than some of these Russians we’ve seen.

Zero expertise on my part, just to be clear.

Sorry if this has been previously posted.

March 13, 4:00 pm EST

Russian forces again conducted few ground offensives on March 13, only securing new terrain in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces predominantly took measures to restore combat readiness and regrouped combat units as of noon local time on March 13.[1] Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Russian forces may intend to resume larger-scale attacks on both axes of advance in the coming week, but will likely take longer to (or may never) cohere the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of Kyiv.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the third day in a row.

Russian forces did not conduct attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and prioritized reinforcing their lines of communication and logistics routes.

Russian and proxy forces successfully captured several towns north of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast on March 13, the only offensive ground actions of the day.

Ukrainian protests in occupied Kherson are likely expanding.

Russia is diluting its international deployments in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to reinforce operations in Ukraine and pulling additional forces from Russia’s far east.

Ukrainian intelligence reported Russia will deploy preexisting pro-Assad Syrian units to Ukraine, in addition to previously announced plans to recruit new Syrian and Libyan mercenaries. These forces are unlikely to enable Russia to favorably change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may provide a longer-term pool of low-quality replacements.

Russian ballistic missiles killed 35 Ukrainians at the Yavoriv military training center near Poland in a likely effort to interdict Western aid deliveries to Ukraine—following up on the Kremlin’s March 12 announcement it will treat international aid shipments as military targets.

I'm no military expert, but it sounds like the initial invasion has failed. Pulling in reserves isn't unheard of, still...kinda surprised.

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Russian and proxy forces successfully captured several towns north of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast on March 13, the only offensive ground actions of the day.

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When all is said and done, the battles in this area may well be the most brutal of the war, barring this dragging on for months and true urban combat developing in the heart of Kyiv.

Most of the land/towns outside of Mariupol has/have been heavily contested with Russian control being heavily challenged, and even outright lost at times in areas. The separatists in that area are likely not as restrained as Russian troops when directly combating Ukrainians.

There are going to be stories from there that will be written.

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I'm no military expert, but it sounds like the initial invasion has failed. Pulling in reserves isn't unheard of, still...kinda surprised.

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Truthfully, that initial invasion was doomed to fail. It appeared as though Putin initially wanted total war results using limited war methods.

I fear what we are seeing now is Russia shift to their more traditional warfare approach. Their movements around Kyiv have the look of an army that is preparing to lay siege to a city. The next few days to week will tell it all in that regard.

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Ukrainian intelligence reported Russia will deploy preexisting pro-Assad Syrian units to Ukraine, in addition to previously announced plans to recruit new Syrian and Libyan mercenaries. These forces are unlikely to enable Russia to favorably change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may provide a longer-term pool of low-quality replacements.

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Well this is going to work out well. Lots of war crimes about to happen. The Ukrainians are not known for being a muslim friendly society.

I also want to say that viewing Russia as a "paper tiger" strictly on how they've fought the first phase of this Ukranian war may be flawed thinking.

It is almost a guarantee that we would see an entirely different, fully motivated force if war with NATO were to come. Russia would find a more readily/easily accepted enemy and war would become much more palatable over night to most of their forces.

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China doesn’t care about oil nearly as much as we think they do. They’re trying to control the world by cornering the market on EV raw materials

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This is the bottom line. China has a well thought out 50 year plan and won’t deviate from it just because Putin wants to put back together something that has no value to them

China has moves in Africa, South America and elsewhere and everyday that it goes unrivaled is another day closer to them becoming unbearably powerful.

They have huge issues feeding their population that I guess the Russian grain could help, but in general I don’t see China taking a micro view on anything

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Unless it’s a red cross truck, if it moves in Ukraine it’s a potential target for russians

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Load weapons into Red Cross trucks.


Damn I’m a genius