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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:50 pm to Camp Randall
Posted on 5/12/25 at 8:50 pm to Camp Randall
ISW Update May 12 2025
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian officials appear to be setting conditions for Russian President Vladimir Putin to reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's invitation to meet on May 15 in Istanbul for bilateral ceasefire negotiations.
Russia has reportedly deployed a largely ceremonial regiment of the Federal Security Service (FSB) to the frontline in Donetsk Oblast, likely in an effort to generate fear of more rapid future Russian advances.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka directions.
1
Posted on 5/12/25 at 9:05 pm to Camp Randall
quote:
3 more days and the retarded military operation will be complete.
That's an insult to the retarded to compare them to Russians
Posted on 5/13/25 at 5:16 am to CitizenK
The Czechs have renamed some streets in Prague:
Posted on 5/13/25 at 5:40 am to Coeur du Tigre
Russia should surrender any minute now.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 6:55 am to Coeur du Tigre
russian - Houthi alliance update...
Russia Reportedly Using Secret Tankers to Supply Houthis and Destabilize Red Sea
May 13, 2025 13:30
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service uncovered evidence tying Russia’s secret oil shipping network—commonly referred to as its “shadow fleet”—to support operations for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants, the intelligence agency reported on May 8.
According to the agency, Russia is using these covert maritime operations to fulfill obligations to Iran, intensify pressure on US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, and drive up global oil prices by fueling instability in the Middle East.
At the center of the evidence is the oil tanker MAISAN, which Ukrainian officials say has repeatedly delivered Russian oil to the Houthi-controlled Yemeni port of Ras Isa.
One notable incident occurred in August 2024, when MAISAN conducted several ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Aegean Sea to disguise the origin of its Russian cargo before offloading it in Ras Isa. Its most recent delivery to the Houthis occurred in early April 2025.
Ukrainian intelligence has identified the vessel’s captain as Russian citizen Vitaly Orlyukov (born July 9, 1987), listing his passport number and taxpayer ID to further substantiate the claim.
In addition to MAISAN, at least two other tankers—PALM (IMO: 9281425, flagged in Guinea-Bissau) and NOBEL M (IMO: 9228784, flagged in Barbados)—have reportedly made repeated trips from Russian ports Vysotsk and Tuapse to Yemen. Ukrainian sources say PALM was last seen in Ras Isa in April 2025, and NOBEL M in May.
“The Russian ‘shadow fleet’ is becoming a global threat, supporting extremist groups such as the Yemeni Al-Houthi movement,” the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service warned.
“The Houthis systematically attack US Navy ships, launch missile strikes against Israel, and target merchant vessels—actions that have already disrupted transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.”
Earlier, reports emerged that Russia supplied satellite data to Yemen’s Houthi rebels to help target Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, disrupting global trade and further destabilizing the region.
United24
Russia Reportedly Using Secret Tankers to Supply Houthis and Destabilize Red Sea
May 13, 2025 13:30
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service uncovered evidence tying Russia’s secret oil shipping network—commonly referred to as its “shadow fleet”—to support operations for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants, the intelligence agency reported on May 8.
According to the agency, Russia is using these covert maritime operations to fulfill obligations to Iran, intensify pressure on US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, and drive up global oil prices by fueling instability in the Middle East.
At the center of the evidence is the oil tanker MAISAN, which Ukrainian officials say has repeatedly delivered Russian oil to the Houthi-controlled Yemeni port of Ras Isa.
One notable incident occurred in August 2024, when MAISAN conducted several ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Aegean Sea to disguise the origin of its Russian cargo before offloading it in Ras Isa. Its most recent delivery to the Houthis occurred in early April 2025.
Ukrainian intelligence has identified the vessel’s captain as Russian citizen Vitaly Orlyukov (born July 9, 1987), listing his passport number and taxpayer ID to further substantiate the claim.
In addition to MAISAN, at least two other tankers—PALM (IMO: 9281425, flagged in Guinea-Bissau) and NOBEL M (IMO: 9228784, flagged in Barbados)—have reportedly made repeated trips from Russian ports Vysotsk and Tuapse to Yemen. Ukrainian sources say PALM was last seen in Ras Isa in April 2025, and NOBEL M in May.
“The Russian ‘shadow fleet’ is becoming a global threat, supporting extremist groups such as the Yemeni Al-Houthi movement,” the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service warned.
“The Houthis systematically attack US Navy ships, launch missile strikes against Israel, and target merchant vessels—actions that have already disrupted transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.”
Earlier, reports emerged that Russia supplied satellite data to Yemen’s Houthi rebels to help target Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones, disrupting global trade and further destabilizing the region.
United24
Posted on 5/13/25 at 7:40 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
NATO could end this today if they wanted to by patrolling the combat line with fighters but they won’t collectively have the balls to make such a bold statement. NATO could announce to both sides it would be conducting security patrols and if the Russians fired on a NATO aircraft then they would be truly fricked. The Russian Air Force would cease to exist as a fighting force after what we would be done to it.
This has been my point to the Ukraine Must Be Admitted into NATO maxers for a long time now.... if its so imperative that we admit them into NATO, why aren't we just defending them right now?
And if all of the powers of NATO have decided that it isn't worth it to defend them now, why would we want to sign a pact saying we MUST defend them later?
A country is either worth defending or it isn't. The whole "they won't attack because of our collective strength" thing only works when you have collective strength. We have it now, sure. Will we down the road? Its not a guarantee.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 7:41 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian officials appear to be setting conditions for Russian President Vladimir Putin to reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's invitation to meet on May 15 in Istanbul for bilateral ceasefire negotiations.
Hoping they meet. Will likely just be a show even if they do.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 7:43 am to cypher
Russia is enabling attacks on US shipping, and is trying to drive up oil prices; yet its none of our business?
Posted on 5/13/25 at 9:46 am to doubleb
Trump "in an ultimatum form" insists on direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, otherwise the US will withdraw from the settlement process, - Special Envoy Witkoff.
More statements by Witkoff:
— Witkoff named Kyiv’s renunciation of territories, the use of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, and Ukraine’s access to the Dnieper and the Black Sea as the main topics in the negotiations on the settlement
— Without Putin’s consent, it is impossible to resolve the conflict in Ukraine peacefully; contacts with the Russian Federation are necessary
— A lot of work has already been done to narrow the range of problems; informal negotiations are underway with Moscow and Kyiv
— The main topics for discussion are Kyiv’s renunciation of territories, the use of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, and Ukraine’s access to the Dnieper and the Black Sea
More statements by Witkoff:
— Witkoff named Kyiv’s renunciation of territories, the use of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, and Ukraine’s access to the Dnieper and the Black Sea as the main topics in the negotiations on the settlement
— Without Putin’s consent, it is impossible to resolve the conflict in Ukraine peacefully; contacts with the Russian Federation are necessary
— A lot of work has already been done to narrow the range of problems; informal negotiations are underway with Moscow and Kyiv
— The main topics for discussion are Kyiv’s renunciation of territories, the use of the Zaporizhzhya NPP, and Ukraine’s access to the Dnieper and the Black Sea
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/13/25 at 9:51 am to VolSquatch
quote:
This has been my point to the Ukraine Must Be Admitted into NATO maxers for a long time now.... if its so imperative that we admit them into NATO, why aren't we just defending them right now?
I don’t recall any of the regulars here advocating that NATO accept Ukraine as a member with a hot war going on.[
quote]And if all of the powers of NATO have decided that it isn't worth it to defend them now, why would we want to sign a pact saying we MUST defend them later? [/quote]
Ukraine wax never on a fast track to get in NATO. They had issues that prevented them from getting in. After 2014 there was another big problem. Their country was invaded.
Plus there are degrees of defense. You can aid as country in their defense without having to put boots on the ground, or planes in the air.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 9:51 am to John Barron
Posted on 5/13/25 at 9:55 am to John Barron
Posted on 5/13/25 at 10:16 am to doubleb
quote:
I don’t recall any of the regulars here advocating that NATO accept Ukraine as a member with a hot war going on.[
quote]And if all of the powers of NATO have decided that it isn't worth it to defend them now, why would we want to sign a pact saying we MUST defend them later?
Ukraine wax never on a fast track to get in NATO. [/quote]
They absolutely have, but its not worth going back and forth over.
What actually is important is that Zelensky wants NATO membership. If he is adamant about it in actual closed door talks as he is publicly, then that is obviously holding up peace.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 10:18 am to AU86
Macron, Mertz and Starmer Diplomacy Accessory Kit.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 10:21 am to cypher
quote:
Russia Reportedly Using Secret Tankers to Supply Houthis and Destabilize Red Sea
quote:
“The Russian ‘shadow fleet’ is becoming a global threat, supporting extremist groups such as the Yemeni Al-Houthi movement,” the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service warned.
Maybe we should send the Ghost of Kyiv to sink the Houthi-backing shadow fleet
quote:
“The Houthis systematically attack US Navy ships, launch missile strikes against Israel, and target merchant vessels—actions that have already disrupted transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.”
I see they hit all the talking points to try to push Trump's buttons
Posted on 5/13/25 at 10:22 am to AU86
Posted on 5/13/25 at 10:27 am to dagrippa
Russia hoax!!!!!!!
Posted on 5/13/25 at 10:33 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Ukraine wax never on a fast track to get in NATO.
100% correct. To join NATO there are milestones which need to be accomplished. Some nations took almost 20 years to achieve this. PLUS no way it gets 100% vote with Hungary and Turkey needing to cast yes votes
Posted on 5/13/25 at 11:50 am to VolSquatch
quote:
What actually is important is that Zelensky wants NATO membership. If he is adamant about it in actual closed door talks as he is publicly, then that is obviously holding up peace.
Ukraine has been trying to get into NATO since 2005 long before Zelensky came onto the scene. 20 years and little was done to take them in. Contrast that with Finland and Sweden and you know the difference.
Zelensky is fighting for assurances that Ukraine will be protected. Why shouldn’t he? There’s little chance they will get into NATO and certainly he knows this, but he can’t just roll over and surrender. Putin has proven that Russia will not comply with treaties.
Putin is holding up peace. Trump has that figured out. You should too.
Posted on 5/13/25 at 12:17 pm to John Barron
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