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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/6/25 at 11:08 am to AU86
Posted on 1/6/25 at 11:08 am to AU86
quote:
What???????? Are you trying to get out of manning the frontlines in Lithuania?
You have been preaching to us for months Russia is going to attack a NATO country.
I don't discount the possibility... because I don't discount the possibility of Trump screwing NATO somehow... time will tell...
2
Posted on 1/6/25 at 11:20 am to Lee B
human safari update
In Kherson, Russians fire at minibus with drone: 1 killed, 9 wounded
06.01.2025 18:35
In Kherson, Russians opened fire on a minibus, one person was killed and nine others were wounded.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Prokudin.
“At about 17:00, Russians attacked a taxi in the Shumensky district of Kherson with a UAV,” the report says.
As noted, one person was killed and nine others were wounded.
Video: Official channel of Oleksandr Prokudin
Ukrinform
In Kherson, Russians fire at minibus with drone: 1 killed, 9 wounded
06.01.2025 18:35
In Kherson, Russians opened fire on a minibus, one person was killed and nine others were wounded.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Prokudin.
“At about 17:00, Russians attacked a taxi in the Shumensky district of Kherson with a UAV,” the report says.
As noted, one person was killed and nine others were wounded.
Video: Official channel of Oleksandr Prokudin
Ukrinform
Posted on 1/6/25 at 11:26 am to Lee B
quote:
I don't discount the possibility..
I do. Heavily.
Even going into this conflict we all knew NATO's combined might would crush Russia. Now that is painfully obvious. Russia doesn't have the apparatus to support a war against NATO. Their navy (or what is left of it) would be obliterated within hours.
If all of that weren't true, they wouldn't be so opposed to Ukraine joining NATO.
Thats the kicker that both sides of our little debate don't want to admit.... NATO membership for Ukraine would have prevented the invasion, but the proposed NATO membership/expansion was also part of the reason for it in the first place. If we wanted them in NATO we should have given that (or at least some provisional form of it, since Russia was involved in those talks too) to them as a reward for handing over their nukes.... that train has left the station at this point.
Prepping for that possibility is in the realm of deciding not to drive a car solely because "well somebody can just decide they want to kill themselves, swerve into oncoming traffic, and hit you head on".
Posted on 1/6/25 at 11:36 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Even going into this conflict we all knew NATO's combined might would crush Russia. Now that is painfully obvious. Russia doesn't have the apparatus to support a war against NATO. Their navy (or what is left of it) would be obliterated within hours.
Jfc dude, you just signed us up for like 3 pages of x embed posts.
Posted on 1/6/25 at 12:05 pm to Pendulum
quote:
Jfc dude, you just signed us up for like 3 pages of x embed posts.
Don't worry I'm apparently a Russian shill too so he will leave me alone
Posted on 1/6/25 at 12:07 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 1/6/25 at 12:13 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Even going into this conflict we all knew NATO's combined might would crush Russia. Now that is painfully obvious. Russia doesn't have the apparatus to support a war against NATO. Their navy (or what is left of it) would be obliterated within hours.
Our conventional war fighting skills have severely atrophied over the last twenty years, and we haven’t prioritized the development of the heavy weapons we would need to fight the Russians. Systems like Crusader were canceled instead of fielded. And then we had a series of big budget failed projects, from the Future Combat System to the Litoral Combat Ship. We also didn’t adequately prepare for the way the Russians responded to our technology. We are not prepared to fight an enemy that uses electronic warfare the way they do. We would also struggle against their air defenses. The problem is the way this negates some of our core strengths, turning them into weaknesses.
This post was edited on 1/6/25 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 1/6/25 at 12:24 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
We would also struggle against their air defenses.
Lol, they can barely drop an embraer 190 taking off. Ask Iran what they think of Russia's vaunted air defenses vs our planes.
This post was edited on 1/6/25 at 5:14 pm
Posted on 1/6/25 at 1:15 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Our conventional war fighting skills have severely atrophied over the last twenty years, and we haven’t prioritized the development of the heavy weapons we would need to fight the Russians. Systems like Crusader were canceled instead of fielded. And then we had a series of big budget failed projects, from the Future Combat System to the Litoral Combat Ship. We also didn’t adequately prepare for the way the Russians responded to our technology. We are not prepared to fight an enemy that uses electronic warfare the way they do. We would also struggle against their air defenses. The problem is the way this negates some of our core strengths.
Keep in mind that the scenario Lee laid out was that Russia attacks a NATO country. This isn't us trying to march into Moscow in an aggressive maneuver, and their forces would be extended beyond much of what their defense apparatus covers.
I think you are partially correct in that we have experienced some strength and capability degradation, but I think you are over-estimating Russia here and under-estimating the combined force of NATO.
I guess the calculus changes if you think China jumps into it, but China is out for China and they at least try to pick winning fights. This isn't a winning fight.
Posted on 1/6/25 at 1:25 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I think you are partially correct in that we have experienced some strength and capability degradation, but I think you are over-estimating Russia here and under-estimating the combined force of NATO.
With the exception of the Turks, the major NATO armies are expeditionary forces, and our equipment is designed with that in mind. I don't think it would go well, especially if the Russians can negate our advantage in air power.
It's an academic point though. The war would go nuclear very quickly, and we'd all be dead.
This post was edited on 1/6/25 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 1/6/25 at 1:50 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Our conventional war fighting skills have severely atrophied over the last twenty years, and we haven’t prioritized the development of the heavy weapons we would need to fight the Russians. Systems like Crusader were canceled instead of fielded. And then we had a series of big budget failed projects, from the Future Combat System to the Litoral Combat Ship. We also didn’t adequately prepare for the way the Russians responded to our technology. We are not prepared to fight an enemy that uses electronic warfare the way they do. We would also struggle against their air defenses. The problem is the way this negates some of our core strengths, turning them into weaknesses.
I disagree with some of this; our conventional warfighting skills have not atrophied; they evolved to fight the enemy we were dealing with in the GWOT. Now that the GWOT is over, the Army is rapidly transitioning back to training for a peer-on-peer conventional war. That takes some time, but the top-to-bottom quality of the US army is much greater than that of Russia.
Let's consider naval power; Russia's navy is terrible. Their only aircraft carrier has been out of service for years and will probably never see another deployment. Russia's only naval force projection comes from its submarine fleet, which is aging and shrinking.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/01/the-russian-navy-is-slowly-sinking-into-the-abyss/
quote:
Key Points and Summary: Russia’s navy faces severe challenges as attrition, outdated equipment, and shipyard issues undermine its capability. Losses in the Black Sea, notably the Moskva, have decimated the fleet, while aging vessels like the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier and Kirov-class battlecruisers struggle for relevance.
-Limited shipbuilding capacity and geopolitical constraints exacerbate the decline, trapping fleets in the Black and Baltic Seas due to NATO’s expanded presence. Submarine programs like the Borei and Yasen classes provide some strength, but overall naval power is dwindling.
-Without substantial reform or external aid, such as Chinese-built ships, the Russian navy risks long-term irrelevance.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-navy-atrophy-one-aircraft-carrier-1795603
quote:
Russia's military has allowed its above-water naval fleet to "atrophy," according to a former United States Navy admiral.
Russia's surface fleet has been neglected, although Russia's underwater capabilities far outshine its above-water fleet, retired U.S. Naval Admiral and dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy, James G. Foggo, told Newsweek.
Russia's growing naval capabilities have caused concern among NATO allies as Russian President Vladimir Putin doubles down on expanding its advanced submarine fleet. However, the surface fleets have experienced a number of high-profile embarrassments, including the sinking of the Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022.
As of 2023, Russia has a total of 598 military ships, including 15 destroyers and 11 frigates, according to Statista figures published on March 30. Moscow's forces have just one aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.
Russia's airforce can't even establish air superiority over Ukraine, and is no match for the USAF.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/03/the-russian-air-force-is-hollowing-itself-out-air-defenses.html#:~:text=The%20Russian%20Aerospace%20Forces%2C%20or,over%20the%20past%20eight%20months.
quote:
The Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS, continues to burn through the life span of its fighter aircraft in the war against Ukraine. After two years of air war, its total force is slightly less than 75 percent of its prewar strength.
The VKS has directly lost approximately 16 fighters over the past eight months. However, this does not account for the imputed losses, which arise from an aircraft accruing more flight hours than planned, reducing its overall life. Based on updated information, the VKS is on track to suffer approximately 60 imputed aircraft losses this year from overuse. That is equivalent to losing 26 new airframes. Meanwhile the VKS currently procures only about 20 total Su-30, Su-34, and Su-35 aircraft per year.
The one area that I think we are truly vulnerable in is the use of small drones on the battlefield. The US Army is still trying to figure this out and doesn't have a scalable answer yet on protecting troops in the field from FPV drones. The US also hasn't figured out how to field FPV drones at the small unit level. My son-in-law is a Major in the 25th Infantry Division; I spent Christmas in Hawaii with him and my daughter/grandkids. We talked quite a bit about what was happening in Ukraine and specifically about small drone warfare. The US army hasn't adapted to that yet.
Don't lose sight of the fact that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has given the US lots of exposure to how Russia fights while at the same time not having to expose how the US fights. Russia would be unprepared for what we unleash because they've never seen it. Don't discount that point.
This post was edited on 1/6/25 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 1/6/25 at 2:05 pm to Chromdome35
Is NATO weaker, as strong or stronger than Ukraine?
I believe the correct answer is stronger and I believe NATO would have no problem stopping a Russian invasion of Poland.
Would NATO have a tough time attacking Russia and getting to Moscow for instance? Certainly, but NATO was not designed to do that.
Putin is no more worried about a NATO attack than LSU is worried about Tulane in football.
I believe the correct answer is stronger and I believe NATO would have no problem stopping a Russian invasion of Poland.
Would NATO have a tough time attacking Russia and getting to Moscow for instance? Certainly, but NATO was not designed to do that.
Putin is no more worried about a NATO attack than LSU is worried about Tulane in football.
Posted on 1/6/25 at 2:22 pm to VolSquatch
As far as the Baltic States are concerned, the invasion is already underway through hybrid warfare... like dragging anchors to sever communications and power lines in the Baltic, which they've done, and stirring up internal actors just like in the Donbas, which they've been doing, and prodding things just to test the response things like redrawing other countries' borders to Russia's advantage, which they've tried...
Secret Kremlin document reveals Russia’s plans for Baltic states – LRT investigation - 5/1/23
Coordinated action
The plan for the Baltic states reached Putin’s administration in autumn 2021. One of its objectives is to exploit pro-Russian forces and organisations, already present in the Baltics, to its advantage.
----------
Financial Times 5/22/24: Russia unsettles Nato with plan to redraw Baltic Sea borders
The plan is the latest attempt by Moscow to unsettle its neighbours following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nato countries including Lithuania and Finland have warned of increasing hybrid attacks from Russia in recent months, including cyber attacks, forced migration and acts of sabotage.
----------
Newsweek 12/3/24- Europe Quietly Prepares for World War III
"Russia is preparing for a war with the West," Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service, said in late November.
But it's not likely to be a large-scale attack into NATO territory, the intelligence chief warned. Moscow could opt for a limited incursion or upping its hybrid warfare tactics to probe the alliance's conviction, Kahl said.
NATO is trying to prepare for both scenarios: an all-out war, and less obvious techniques designed to undermine stability in the alliance's member countries.
The absurdity of terrorist gang taking down the World Trade Centers was laughable... until they did it.
Secret Kremlin document reveals Russia’s plans for Baltic states – LRT investigation - 5/1/23
Coordinated action
The plan for the Baltic states reached Putin’s administration in autumn 2021. One of its objectives is to exploit pro-Russian forces and organisations, already present in the Baltics, to its advantage.
----------
Financial Times 5/22/24: Russia unsettles Nato with plan to redraw Baltic Sea borders
The plan is the latest attempt by Moscow to unsettle its neighbours following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Nato countries including Lithuania and Finland have warned of increasing hybrid attacks from Russia in recent months, including cyber attacks, forced migration and acts of sabotage.
----------
Newsweek 12/3/24- Europe Quietly Prepares for World War III
"Russia is preparing for a war with the West," Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany's foreign intelligence service, said in late November.
But it's not likely to be a large-scale attack into NATO territory, the intelligence chief warned. Moscow could opt for a limited incursion or upping its hybrid warfare tactics to probe the alliance's conviction, Kahl said.
NATO is trying to prepare for both scenarios: an all-out war, and less obvious techniques designed to undermine stability in the alliance's member countries.
The absurdity of terrorist gang taking down the World Trade Centers was laughable... until they did it.
Posted on 1/6/25 at 2:52 pm to Lee B
quote:
The absurdity of terrorist gang taking down the World Trade Centers was laughable... until they did it.
Actually the opposite is true, when you look into it its you will be shocked at how many people before 9/11 were warning not just of an attack, but specifically one involving airlines.
quote:
the invasion is already underway through hybrid warfare... like dragging anchors to sever communications and power lines in the Baltic, which they've done, and stirring up internal actors just like in the Donbas, which they've been doing, and prodding things just to test the response things like redrawing other countries' borders to Russia's advantage, which they've tried...
So, not an actual invasion
Posted on 1/6/25 at 3:36 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Actually the opposite is true, when you look into it its you will be shocked at how many people before 9/11 were warning not just of an attack, but specifically one involving airlines.
Well, many people are warning of these various attacks, are they not?
quote:
So, not an actual invasion
A Special Military Operation by any other name...
Posted on 1/6/25 at 4:54 pm to Lee B
another USV variant, they can now launch FPVs to strike land targets. I think this has been known since Dec.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 1/6/25 at 4:56 pm
Posted on 1/6/25 at 5:24 pm to VolSquatch
Leon lives in a world of fantasy. He probably larps a Russian.invasion on the Baltics in his basement.
He is having a tough time right now watching all his beloved leftists/globalists lose power.
If I knew his address I would send him a picture of Viktor Orban and Trump.
He is having a tough time right now watching all his beloved leftists/globalists lose power.
If I knew his address I would send him a picture of Viktor Orban and Trump.
Posted on 1/6/25 at 6:24 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 1/6/25 at 8:47 pm to cypher
So Ukraine launched drones from sea drones. Russia is using wired drones that can supposedly go kms. It's wild how far we are from the beginning of this war in battlefield technology.
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