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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/3/25 at 10:38 am to cypher
Posted on 1/3/25 at 10:38 am to cypher
Russia is not your normal Western economy, so we cannot measure the Russian economy with normal Western methods. Russia is an autocracy built on a population without agency. The only economy that exists is the Putin economy - what is good or bad for Putin personally.
Therefore, of the three issues here - a (official) interest rate of 21%, domestic inflation out of effective control and a weakening Ruble - only the interest rate threatens Putin. Putin couldn't care less about the inflationary cost of food there, and due to sanctions there is no serious international trade. Even the Indians and Chinese refuse to take Rubles now.
However, his supporting oligarchs don't want higher interest rates costing their businesses. Especially the defense manufacturing businesses. As their overseas investments are frozen, they very much depend on domestic income to keep things under control. Like their private security. So if the Rubles they are making are losing substantial value, they can see the future of their personal health. And they didn't get where they are today by waiting to see what will happen.
The key event to watch now is the maintenance of the Russian gold reserves held in Russia. If Putin starts drawing on this to keep the oligarchs happy you know it's about to get bad. Not Western bad, but Putin bad.
Therefore, of the three issues here - a (official) interest rate of 21%, domestic inflation out of effective control and a weakening Ruble - only the interest rate threatens Putin. Putin couldn't care less about the inflationary cost of food there, and due to sanctions there is no serious international trade. Even the Indians and Chinese refuse to take Rubles now.
However, his supporting oligarchs don't want higher interest rates costing their businesses. Especially the defense manufacturing businesses. As their overseas investments are frozen, they very much depend on domestic income to keep things under control. Like their private security. So if the Rubles they are making are losing substantial value, they can see the future of their personal health. And they didn't get where they are today by waiting to see what will happen.
The key event to watch now is the maintenance of the Russian gold reserves held in Russia. If Putin starts drawing on this to keep the oligarchs happy you know it's about to get bad. Not Western bad, but Putin bad.
0
Posted on 1/3/25 at 11:06 am to VolSquatch
Institute for the Study of War
?@thestudyofwar.bsky.social?
Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements - Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove - in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people.
?@thestudyofwar.bsky.social?
Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements - Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove - in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 1:59 pm to cypher
Did you lot know that the institute for the study of war is run entirely by Globalist neocons like Victoria Nuland, Robert Kagan, and Chaim "Bill" Kristol?
All want perpetual war to make benefit for their diaspora.
All want perpetual war to make benefit for their diaspora.
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 1/3/25 at 2:53 pm to SirWinston
Did you know Ayden is Scottson Sterritt, the well known grifter recently referenced in this thread ?
Scottson Sterritt
Scottson Sterritt
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 1/3/25 at 4:25 pm to cypher
Posted on 1/3/25 at 4:26 pm to John Barron
The Russian army is pushing through Ukraine's defense: its fighters have become elusive to the Ukrainian Armed Forces due to electric scooters, motorcycles and ATVs, — New York Times
-Russian attacks continue to escalate, say frontline soldiers and military analysts. Russian soldiers are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles and quad bikes, allowing them to move quickly and spread out along the front lines.
-"It is quite easy to hit just one vehicle carrying 15 people. But when these 15 people are riding electric scooters, it is a very big problem," complains Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel Pavlenko-Kryzheshevsky.
-“It is quite normal for them to use 150-200 soldiers at a time for offensive actions,” says an officer via video link from a command post at the front, describing the battle in the Toretsk area.
??Such incessant Russian attacks have led to the front lines in a number of areas in eastern Ukraine bending," experts say.
(Time told again...)
-Russian attacks continue to escalate, say frontline soldiers and military analysts. Russian soldiers are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles and quad bikes, allowing them to move quickly and spread out along the front lines.
-"It is quite easy to hit just one vehicle carrying 15 people. But when these 15 people are riding electric scooters, it is a very big problem," complains Ukrainian Armed Forces Colonel Pavlenko-Kryzheshevsky.
-“It is quite normal for them to use 150-200 soldiers at a time for offensive actions,” says an officer via video link from a command post at the front, describing the battle in the Toretsk area.
??Such incessant Russian attacks have led to the front lines in a number of areas in eastern Ukraine bending," experts say.
(Time told again...)
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 1/3/25 at 4:37 pm to John Barron
The apparent joy you (and some others) see in Russia advancing says much about your actual motivation in opposing further support for Ukraine...
and it reflects badly on you as a person
and it reflects badly on you as a person
Posted on 1/3/25 at 5:00 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
To me if the war drags on long enough this gradual decline in Ukraine's position/prospects that has been going on for a while will suddenly uptick, and there will be 2-4 weeks with tons of movement and gains by Russia. I think that is inevitable if the war is prolonged, just not sure how long it would take to get there and if both sides have the stomach for that.
There is no doubt Putin and Russia have the stomach. Putin is becoming very confident in the military situation. The situation is very advantageous for him regarding the negotiations. They are plowing through defenses and if you notice on the map there are no defenses beyond the Donbass. It's all open ground.
Putin is going to drive a very hard bargain. Ukraine is going to have to swallow a bitter pill.
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 1/3/25 at 5:04 pm to TigersnJeeps
quote:
The apparent joy you
There is no joy. I just post the facts. I do not like when someone is pissing on my head and telling me it's raining though. I will always pushback against that
Posted on 1/3/25 at 5:05 pm to John Barron
quote:
I just post the facts
Lolz
Posted on 1/3/25 at 5:07 pm to SirWinston
quote:
institute for the study of war
A broken clock is right more often than that “institute”
Posted on 1/3/25 at 5:12 pm to AU86
quote:
Ukraine is going to have to swallow a bitter pill.
Like half of Ukraine already speaks Russian. It’ll be an easy transition for them
Posted on 1/3/25 at 5:50 pm to John Barron
quote:
I also wouldn't believe pro Russian OSINT accounts that do the same thing
quote:
Collapse Day #130
Posted on 1/3/25 at 6:18 pm to StormyMcMan
So you are denying this happened?
"Russian forces have capture the final major defense node in the southern Donetsk, Kurakhove. With its capture comes a new blossom much like we've seen from Selydove to the north, where Russian forces have advanced quickly and are already 10km west of Pokrovsk.…"
His wording of "collapse" is hyperbolic. The information is not. Much different than Oryx double counting Ukraine tank kills as Russian Tanks then when the NATO equipment came on the battlefield he quit because he could no longer pass off Ukrainian Equipment as Russian. Big Difference
"Russian forces have capture the final major defense node in the southern Donetsk, Kurakhove. With its capture comes a new blossom much like we've seen from Selydove to the north, where Russian forces have advanced quickly and are already 10km west of Pokrovsk.…"
His wording of "collapse" is hyperbolic. The information is not. Much different than Oryx double counting Ukraine tank kills as Russian Tanks then when the NATO equipment came on the battlefield he quit because he could no longer pass off Ukrainian Equipment as Russian. Big Difference
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 1/3/25 at 6:43 pm to John Barron
Moldova faces 'security crisis' after Russian gas shut-off, PM Recean says
by Abbey Fenbert January 4, 2025 2:20 AM
Russia's decision to cut off gas supplies to Moldova has thrown the country into a "security crisis," Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said on Jan. 3.
The Russian state energy company Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Moldova on Jan. 1, triggering an energy emergency in the Russian-occupied breakaway region of Transnistria. The region now risks industrial collapse due to widespread power outages.
"By jeopardizing the future of the protectorate it has backed for three decades in an effort to destabilize Moldova, Russia is revealing the inevitable outcome for all its allies — betrayal and isolation," Recean said in a statement.
"We treat this as a security crisis aimed at enabling the return of pro-Russian forces to power in Moldova and weaponizing our territory against Ukraine, with whom we share a 1,200-km border."
Russian troops have occupied Transnistria since the early 1990s. While the rest of Moldova switched to European energy supplies after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the region remains heavily dependent on Russian gas.
Gazprom's suspension has left nearly 75,000 households without gas and another 116,000 with reduced supply, according to Sergey Obolonik, the first deputy chairman of the Transnistrian administration.
Transnistria has initiated rolling blackouts to mitigate the crisis.
While Moldova offered to assist Transnistria in purchasing alternatives to Russian gas via the European market, authorities in the region refused, saying they believed Gazprom would resume deliveries.
Gazprom has said that the decision to cut off gas to Moldova resulted from outstanding debts, an allegation Chisinau disputes.
A deal allowing Russian gas to transit to Europe through Ukraine also expired on Jan. 1, but Gazprom did not cite transit issues as the reason for the suspension. Moldova could still receive Russian gas supplies via alternative routes.
Chisinau has repeatedly accused Moscow of attemping to destabilize the country in order to bring Moldova under Russian control.
The Kyiv Independent
by Abbey Fenbert January 4, 2025 2:20 AM
Russia's decision to cut off gas supplies to Moldova has thrown the country into a "security crisis," Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said on Jan. 3.
The Russian state energy company Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Moldova on Jan. 1, triggering an energy emergency in the Russian-occupied breakaway region of Transnistria. The region now risks industrial collapse due to widespread power outages.
"By jeopardizing the future of the protectorate it has backed for three decades in an effort to destabilize Moldova, Russia is revealing the inevitable outcome for all its allies — betrayal and isolation," Recean said in a statement.
"We treat this as a security crisis aimed at enabling the return of pro-Russian forces to power in Moldova and weaponizing our territory against Ukraine, with whom we share a 1,200-km border."
Russian troops have occupied Transnistria since the early 1990s. While the rest of Moldova switched to European energy supplies after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the region remains heavily dependent on Russian gas.
Gazprom's suspension has left nearly 75,000 households without gas and another 116,000 with reduced supply, according to Sergey Obolonik, the first deputy chairman of the Transnistrian administration.
Transnistria has initiated rolling blackouts to mitigate the crisis.
While Moldova offered to assist Transnistria in purchasing alternatives to Russian gas via the European market, authorities in the region refused, saying they believed Gazprom would resume deliveries.
Gazprom has said that the decision to cut off gas to Moldova resulted from outstanding debts, an allegation Chisinau disputes.
A deal allowing Russian gas to transit to Europe through Ukraine also expired on Jan. 1, but Gazprom did not cite transit issues as the reason for the suspension. Moldova could still receive Russian gas supplies via alternative routes.
Chisinau has repeatedly accused Moscow of attemping to destabilize the country in order to bring Moldova under Russian control.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:13 pm to texag7
quote:
Like half of Ukraine already speaks Russian. It’ll be an easy transition for them
Probably so, but Ukrainian is the primary language.
quote:
Ukrainian is the primary language used in the vast majority of Ukraine. 67% of Ukrainians speak Ukrainian as their primary language, while 30% speak Russian as their primary language
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:17 pm to cypher
quote:
The Russian state energy company Gazprom halted gas deliveries to Moldova on Jan. 1, triggering an energy emergency in the Russian-occupied breakaway region of Transnistria. The region now risks industrial collapse due to widespread power outages.
"By jeopardizing the future of the protectorate it has backed for three decades in an effort to destabilize Moldova, Russia is revealing the inevitable outcome for all its allies — betrayal and isolation," Recean said in a statement.
What if the plan is if negotiations fail and fighting continues that Russia goes to the aid of the "ethnic Russians" by taking Odessa and extends the land bridge to Transnistria?
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:21 pm to texag7
If that's the yard stick we are going to use to determine "ownership" of a country, the US better watch out, Spanish speakers are a growing portion of the population. If 50% of the US can speak Spanish, does Mexico have a claim???
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:24 pm to AU86
That’s been discussed since the start of the three day special military operation as one of the dozens of plans the Russians will execute if at all possible.
Just gonna convince the West to abandon Ukraine and its easy killing.
Just gonna convince the West to abandon Ukraine and its easy killing.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:30 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
If that's the yard stick we are going to use to determine "ownership" of a country, the US better watch out, Spanish speakers are a growing portion of the population. If 50% of the US can speak Spanish, does Mexico have a claim???
Earlier today someone stated that Ukrsine wasn’t old enough to call themselves sovereign or something like that. I guess the US is safe, we are about 250 years old now and I don’t thing England is going to try and take us back.
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