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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/3/25 at 3:26 am to cypher
Posted on 1/3/25 at 3:26 am to cypher
The biggest threat to Putin’s regime is Donald Trump
Vladimir Putin’s plan to outlast Joe Biden and an exhausted West has run into an unpleasant surprise – Donald Trump is surrounding himself with pro-Ukrainian hardliners.
Trump appears more willing than Biden ever was to throttle the Russian economy, if that is what it takes to force the Kremlin to accept peace on “America First” terms.
A new mood of relief – not yet optimism – is taking hold among Volodymyr Zelensky’s advisers in Kyiv. Europe’s diplomats are starting to wonder whether a Trump 2.0 presidency might not be such a bad outcome after all, at least when it comes to dealing with Russia.
“It is now absolutely clear that Trump is not going to throw Ukraine under a bus,” said Prof Alan Riley, a regional expert at the Atlantic Council.
Trump’s advisers have persuaded him, by the odd “socratic method” that shapes policy at Mar-a-Lago, that a shabby American retreat from Ukraine would be orders of magnitude worse than Biden’s humiliation in Afghanistan, and also that the first line of defence against China lies in the Donbas.
“The first order of business is to force Putin to the table,” said Robert O’Brien,Trump’s former National Security Adviser and still a close confidant. “Right now he has no incentive to do so. He thinks he’s going to win.
“The easiest way to do that without some sort of escalation that puts us in danger of a nuclear exchange is massive sanctions,” he said.
He advises Trump to go for the jugular on oil, gas, and commodities, backed with secondary sanctions on Chinese or Indian entities that breach the blockade.
The Telegraph
Vladimir Putin’s plan to outlast Joe Biden and an exhausted West has run into an unpleasant surprise – Donald Trump is surrounding himself with pro-Ukrainian hardliners.
Trump appears more willing than Biden ever was to throttle the Russian economy, if that is what it takes to force the Kremlin to accept peace on “America First” terms.
A new mood of relief – not yet optimism – is taking hold among Volodymyr Zelensky’s advisers in Kyiv. Europe’s diplomats are starting to wonder whether a Trump 2.0 presidency might not be such a bad outcome after all, at least when it comes to dealing with Russia.
“It is now absolutely clear that Trump is not going to throw Ukraine under a bus,” said Prof Alan Riley, a regional expert at the Atlantic Council.
Trump’s advisers have persuaded him, by the odd “socratic method” that shapes policy at Mar-a-Lago, that a shabby American retreat from Ukraine would be orders of magnitude worse than Biden’s humiliation in Afghanistan, and also that the first line of defence against China lies in the Donbas.
“The first order of business is to force Putin to the table,” said Robert O’Brien,Trump’s former National Security Adviser and still a close confidant. “Right now he has no incentive to do so. He thinks he’s going to win.
“The easiest way to do that without some sort of escalation that puts us in danger of a nuclear exchange is massive sanctions,” he said.
He advises Trump to go for the jugular on oil, gas, and commodities, backed with secondary sanctions on Chinese or Indian entities that breach the blockade.
The Telegraph
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 3:34 am
1
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:15 am to Camp Randall
quote:
Just keep posting your bullshite. It’s so informative.
quote:
Camp Randall
Its been months and I still haven't seen Camp Randall do anything in this thread except talk about other posters
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:21 am to cypher
quote:
a shabby American retreat from Ukraine would be orders of magnitude worse than Biden’s humiliation in Afghanistan
We are retreating from a war we aren't fighting now?
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:29 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Its been months and I still haven't seen Camp Randall do anything in this thread except talk about other posters
And you don’t????
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:31 am to VolSquatch
quote:
We are retreating from a war we aren't fighting now?
If we quit aiding Ukraine, it would be deserting a nation we agreed to help. It wouldn’t be a retreat.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:46 am to doubleb
the human safari continues...
Russians dropped explosives from drone on resident of Kherson - he was hospitalized
A 59-year-old civilian was injured in Kherson as a result of shelling from a Russian drone.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the Kherson Regional Military Administration.
“At about 10:00, the Russians attacked Kherson from a drone,” the report says.
As noted, as a result of the explosive drop, a 59-year-old man suffered an explosive injury and a shrapnel wound to his leg. He is currently in the hospital.
According to the RMA, the 59-year-old man was injured when Russians attacked the Dnipro district of the city from a drone.
Ukrinform
Russians dropped explosives from drone on resident of Kherson - he was hospitalized
A 59-year-old civilian was injured in Kherson as a result of shelling from a Russian drone.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the Kherson Regional Military Administration.
“At about 10:00, the Russians attacked Kherson from a drone,” the report says.
As noted, as a result of the explosive drop, a 59-year-old man suffered an explosive injury and a shrapnel wound to his leg. He is currently in the hospital.
According to the RMA, the 59-year-old man was injured when Russians attacked the Dnipro district of the city from a drone.
Ukrinform
This post was edited on 1/3/25 at 7:47 am
Posted on 1/3/25 at 7:53 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 03 January 2025
On 20 December 2024, the Russian Central Bank (CBR) decided to hold interest rates at 21 per cent, marking a shift from its recent approach to tackling inflation. At its last meeting in October 2024, the CBR hiked interest rates from 19 per cent to 21 per cent, the highest rate since the beginning of the war in 2022. Criticism of high interest rates is growing amongst Russian businesses; however inflationary pressures are also likely intensifying, in part due to the recent depreciation of the ruble.
In November 2024, the ruble depreciated to its lowest rate against the US dollar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (114 per US dollar). The drop in the ruble's value was almost certainly driven by the announcement of sanctions on Gazprombank, followed by the publication of economic statistics indicating continued overheating of the Russian economy. In response, the CBR announced it would cease the purchase of foreign currencies until 2025.
However, the ruble remained above 100 to the US dollar until 20 December 2024, leading to wide market expectations of another interest rate hike. The CBR's decision to hold interest rates at the current level will likely add to the imbalances in the economy due to the inflationary effects of the depreciation, labour shortages and high government spending.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 03 January 2025
On 20 December 2024, the Russian Central Bank (CBR) decided to hold interest rates at 21 per cent, marking a shift from its recent approach to tackling inflation. At its last meeting in October 2024, the CBR hiked interest rates from 19 per cent to 21 per cent, the highest rate since the beginning of the war in 2022. Criticism of high interest rates is growing amongst Russian businesses; however inflationary pressures are also likely intensifying, in part due to the recent depreciation of the ruble.
In November 2024, the ruble depreciated to its lowest rate against the US dollar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 (114 per US dollar). The drop in the ruble's value was almost certainly driven by the announcement of sanctions on Gazprombank, followed by the publication of economic statistics indicating continued overheating of the Russian economy. In response, the CBR announced it would cease the purchase of foreign currencies until 2025.
However, the ruble remained above 100 to the US dollar until 20 December 2024, leading to wide market expectations of another interest rate hike. The CBR's decision to hold interest rates at the current level will likely add to the imbalances in the economy due to the inflationary effects of the depreciation, labour shortages and high government spending.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:01 am to doubleb
quote:
a nation we agreed to help
We have helped them more than anyone else
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:04 am to doubleb
quote:
And you don’t????
I actually talk about the war and how it can get resolved, so no
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:08 am to VolSquatch
quote:
We have helped them more than anyone else
Unless we nuke Russia for them, doubleb won’t be satisfied.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 8:55 am to cypher
It's $10 for a pound of butter now for them and a family of 4 lives on around $500 per month.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 9:09 am to VolSquatch
It sure sounds like it annoys you. That makes me smile. Thanks!
Posted on 1/3/25 at 9:10 am to VolSquatch
quote:
We have helped them more than anyone else
True and we have more to bring to the table than anyone else. And as best as I can tell we are still at the table.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 9:26 am to Camp Randall
quote:
It sure sounds like it annoys you. That makes me smile. Thanks!
I'm mostly just curious as to why someone so seemingly passionate about one side of this issue also seemingly has zero to actually say about it.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 9:32 am to texag7
quote:
Unless we nuke Russia for them, doubleb won’t be satisfied.
The lengths some in here want to go to save a country that doesn't matter because "we need to keep our word" is insane.
Just don't think too much about the fact that Ukraine didn't get anything concrete in writing from us or anyone else outside of "don't invade us". Russia broke the one part of it that was crystal clear
By the letter of the agreement merely us saying publicly "We support Ukraine in their defense against Russia" and then not sending them a single cent worth of aid would be honoring the agreement because there aren't any specific parameters about what "support" means in said agreement. It says we have to "respect their sovereignty" or something along those lines.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 9:36 am to doubleb
quote:
And as best as I can tell we are still at the table.
Yeah the conversation is generally about whether we should still be there or not, not if we are there at all.
Glad you could catch up with the rest of us.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 10:08 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Glad you could catch up with the rest of us.
I owe it all to you Doc.
Posted on 1/3/25 at 10:12 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 1/3/25 at 10:18 am to John Barron
Posted on 1/3/25 at 10:28 am to John Barron
I think using the word 'collapse' was a poor choice. 130 days of 'collapsing' is a long time.
To me if the war drags on long enough this gradual decline in Ukraine's position/prospects that has been going on for a while will suddenly uptick, and there will be 2-4 weeks with tons of movement and gains by Russia. I think that is inevitable if the war is prolonged, just not sure how long it would take to get there and if both sides have the stomach for that.
To me if the war drags on long enough this gradual decline in Ukraine's position/prospects that has been going on for a while will suddenly uptick, and there will be 2-4 weeks with tons of movement and gains by Russia. I think that is inevitable if the war is prolonged, just not sure how long it would take to get there and if both sides have the stomach for that.
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