re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Collapse is when defenses get overrun by attacking soldiers and there is nothing left to stop their advances.

Is that happening?

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I don't know. I am not on the ground. Just giving you guys some info from a Pro Ukrainian source. The article was done by the Washington Post. Unfortunately it has a paywall so these are only quotes from the article

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russia has continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024–2025 strike campaign against Ukraine.

Russia has yet to address limitations in its ability to produce and field Shahed drones, however, and will likely continue to struggle with these limitations in 2025.

North Korean forces are continuing to experience high casualty rates amid recent confirmation of the first captured North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast

Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) attempted to blame weather conditions and the pilot’s response to the Russian emergency airspace closure over the Republic of Chechnya for the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan on December 25.

A Russian insider source — who is reportedly affiliated with Russian law enforcement and released an alleged transcript of the communications between the crew and a Russian air traffic control in Grozny — accused Rosaviatsiya of attempting to conceal the misuse of Russian air defense systems.

Finnish authorities seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel was recently involved in damaging undersea electricity and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea but noted that it is too soon to conclude that Russia is behind the cable disruptions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to head the newly established Scientific Expert Council of the Russian Security Council.

Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase the value of enlistment bonuses to incentivize military recruitment.

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Transnistria was its attempt to keep Moldova from merging with Romania. Kaliningrad was because it was almost 100% Russian and neither the Lithuania nor Poland wanted all the Russians

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Transnistria is stocked with Russians, mostly troops, rotated in and out through various roundabout ways...

Kaliningrad wants independence... last I saw they voted for it... and Germany, Poland and Lithuania have all claimed rights to it.

Barron,

When I read that article about the current state of the ukranian army it reminds one of Hitler's "fortress" strategy at the end of the war.

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The fortress doctrine evolved towards the end of World War II, when the German leadership had not yet accepted defeat, but had begun to realize that drastic measures were required to forestall inevitable offensives on the Reich. The first such stronghold was Stalingrad.[1]

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He just continued to let soldiers be slaughtered for his own hubris

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Now Day 1039 in its 3 day WAR where it only targets civilians with missiles and drones.

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Taking land while only targeting civilians.... So Ukraine is out of troops?

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
28 DECEMBER 2024

Overnight 12-13 December 2024 Russia conducted a large-scale multi-axis attack into Ukraine. As with the attacks that occurred in November and prior, it involved Russian Long Range Aviation assets and Russian fixed wing Tactical Aviation assets launching multiple types of air launched cruise-missile and air launched ballistic missile systems.

The air assets were supported by SAGARIS Land Attack Cruise Missiles launched by Black Sea Fleet assets, and One-Way Attack Uncrewed Aerial Systems (OWA UAS) were used from multiple launch sites. In total approximately 90 missiles were used in conjunction with at least 180 OWA UAS.

Since August 2024, it is highly likely Russia has chosen to take time to build stocks between strikes and then launch in larger, less frequent strike waves, rather than the more frequent smaller attacks conducted earlier in the year. The composition and target set of the 12-13 December attack was similar to previous attacks, focusing on Ukrainian Critical National Infrastructure and industry, whilst also attempting to supress Ukrainian Air Defence and airfields by saturating them with OWA UAS. However, Russia retains the ability and the stocks to allow such assets to be employed in smaller numbers, as a punitive measure, with little or no warning.

Interesting thread on how Ukraine used ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles inefficiently, choosing targets based on what would be embarrassing for Russia vs what would actually help Ukraine the most on the battlefield.

Specifically relevant given our recent discussions involving the US aid being supposedly lackluster ... You can lead someone to water but can't force them to drink.

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That's not as much territory as you think. It is the equivalent of taking the entire Donetsk Oblast in 1000 days.

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Taking land while only targeting civilians.... So Ukraine is out of troops?

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I don’t believe they are, but if you read some of these far out posts you’d think they were.