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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/27/24 at 10:09 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 12/27/24 at 10:09 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Not exactly. If his calculus is still telling him that its better to continue, then the war can't really be going that poorly for him. Thats kind of the point of the entire post
You believe the war is going well for Russia? I do not. They aren’t losing, but winning is way harder than they expected.
1
Posted on 12/27/24 at 10:27 am to doubleb
quote:
You believe the war is going well for Russia?
Didn't say that, I'm speaking from Putin's perspective.
I don't know what their internal capacity/breaking point is. I just know what we all know: Things have seemingly gone poorly for them... their economy has taken a hit... They have lost a ton of men and equipment... There is more of an off ramp than ever right now... and yet they aren't stopping and might not even be willing to negotiate. So that leads me to my two possibilities.
But I'll introduce a third possibility: All of the negative headlines about Russia are true, but it doesn't matter because they know they can still outlast Ukraine and win. We focus a lot on Russia's position or Ukraine's position individually, when what really matters is what their positions are relative to each other.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 10:57 am to VolSquatch
quote:
But I'll introduce a third possibility: All of the negative headlines about Russia are true, but it doesn't matter because they know they can still outlast Ukraine and win. We focus a lot on Russia's position or Ukraine's position individually, when what really matters is what their positions are relative to each other.
I think this is what’s happening.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 11:53 am to doubleb
Posted on 12/27/24 at 11:56 am to VolSquatch
The Russians don't care if they maul themselves back to the 19th century. if they can defeat Ukraine, it keeps the powers that be, in office, for another generation.
The people are blind patriots, it is pretty crazy but they will never change their ways.
The people are blind patriots, it is pretty crazy but they will never change their ways.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 12:04 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Not exactly. If his calculus is still telling him that its better to continue, then the war can't really be going that poorly for him. Thats kind of the point of the entire post
Eh, I kinda think that he's playing out the string. He doesn't have good options, and he's continually overestimated his military since the beginning of the war, since he doesn't like to get bad news.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 12:38 pm to cypher
Dugin is correct. Russia needs Ukraine's intellectual firepower in engineering and technology.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 12:41 pm to Pfft
quote:
The Russians don't care if they maul themselves back to the 19th century. if they can defeat Ukraine, it keeps the powers that be, in office, for another generation.
Thats how they've always fought. I don't know why we ignore the history and pretend that we aren't dealing with a country who has a very different definition of what constitutes an unreasonable amount of losses than most anyone else.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 12:42 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Eh, I kinda think that he's playing out the string. He doesn't have good options, and he's continually overestimated his military since the beginning of the war, since he doesn't like to get bad news.
I think that’s what is going on.
The war is almost three years old. It was launched as a special operation because the Russians believed they would win quickly.
You know they had to have planned this thing months or maybe a year in advance. None of their advance planning could have prepared them for this.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 12:55 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
He doesn't have good options, and he's continually overestimated his military since the beginning of the war, since he doesn't like to get bad news.
His options don't even have to be good for him to want to continue the war despite having an off-ramp though. There is a possibility he is choosing to drive the lemon he bought instead of eat the loss and get another car because he thinks long term it could be worth it.
Everything is relative. If Russia were hanging on by a thread like some here believe and they could come away with the land they hold today and kick the NATO can down the road, I think they would do it. That outcome relative to having to withdraw and losing that land is obviously preferable.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 1:15 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Everything is relative. If Russia were hanging on by a thread like some here believe and they could come away with the land they hold today and kick the NATO can down the road, I think they would do it. That outcome relative to having to withdraw and losing that land is obviously preferable.
Russia isn’t hanging on by a thread, but they are hanging in there hoping the west gets tired of helping Ukraine and backs off.
They keep grinding forward slowly at a high price. They aren’t going to retreat and Ukraine can’t defeat them so we have this stalemate.
It’s becoming more and more like a Vietnam. Not in the type of war of course, but the fact they have no good way out.
This post was edited on 12/27/24 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 12/27/24 at 1:16 pm to VolSquatch
hybrid war in progress....
Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’
Listening equipment was placed on Eagle S and related tanker Swiftsea Rider to monitor Nato naval and aircraft activities, Lloyd’s List was told
27 Dec 2024
Eagle S, the Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging an underwater electricity cable on Christmas Day, was kitted out with special transmitting and receiving devices that were used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship, which has since been detained by Finnish police
RUSSIA-LINKED dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a “spy ship” for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt.
The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.
Lloyd’s List
Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’
Listening equipment was placed on Eagle S and related tanker Swiftsea Rider to monitor Nato naval and aircraft activities, Lloyd’s List was told
27 Dec 2024
Eagle S, the Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging an underwater electricity cable on Christmas Day, was kitted out with special transmitting and receiving devices that were used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship, which has since been detained by Finnish police
RUSSIA-LINKED dark fleet* tanker Eagle S (IMO: 9329760), seized by Finland on December 25 for damaging an undersea cable, had transmitting and receiving devices installed that effectively allowed it to become a “spy ship” for Russia, Lloyd’s List has learnt.
The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.
Lloyd’s List
Posted on 12/27/24 at 1:57 pm to doubleb
quote:
It’s becoming more and more like a Vietnam. Not in the type of war of course, but the fact they have no good way out.
The US had a WAY easier out with Vietnam than Russia does with Ukraine. Totally different ballgame when you're dealing with a country on your border and getting globally sanctioned for you war with them.
quote:
They aren’t going to retreat and Ukraine can’t defeat them so we have this stalemate.
If this were going to be the reality long term we would have a deal by now. Its obvious not. Something is going to break.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 2:36 pm to doubleb
quote:
The war is almost three years old. It was launched as a special operation because the Russians believed they would win quickly.
You know they had to have planned this thing months or maybe a year in advance. None of their advance planning could have prepared them for this.
uh... decades... like, from the moment Ukraine gained its independence and the USSR collapsed.
Why did Russia hold onto Transnistria and Kaliningrad?
There were psy ops to convince the Ukrainian people they were Russian and the West is evil, and it worked on some of them,... just as there have been decades of psy ops on the American people to convince them the US is evil and Russia is the good guy... and unfortunately that has worked on some, too.
This post was edited on 12/27/24 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 12/27/24 at 2:40 pm to VolSquatch
Putin is trapped in a web of his own making.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 3:09 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Putin rejects Trump team's 'peace plan' idea – ISW
Means nothing until Trump actually has power and real, legitimate terms are on the table. They are effectively sending each other rough drafts via public statement at this point.
True but if Putin continues to act like a spoiled child who won't let anyone touch his toy past 12:01pm EST on 1/20/24 then Ukraine will be getting a metric f**kload of new aid. Hopefully the Trump administration can deliver it more efficiently than the Biden administration.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 3:20 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 12/27/24 at 3:33 pm to John Barron
Posted on 12/27/24 at 3:42 pm to John Barron
I read that Russia is out producing the West in munitions. Trump says NATO is weak and Europe doesn’t properly support it. Now I see that neither Germsny, nor the Patriot System can stop Russia’s new missile.
Now please explain to me why Putin fears NATO.
It doesn’t add up.
Now please explain to me why Putin fears NATO.
It doesn’t add up.
Posted on 12/27/24 at 3:56 pm to John Barron
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Good thing Germany is protected by NATO's missile defense system which includes the Aegis missile defense ships in the Baltic Sea, Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania, and THAAD missile systems deployed by the US army in Europe. The SM-3 missiles in the Aegis Systems and the THAAD can intercept Oreshnik. However, do you think Putin is desperate enough to attack a NATO country?
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