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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/19/24 at 3:00 pm to doubleb
Posted on 12/19/24 at 3:00 pm to doubleb
quote:
WRONG
This is a terrible analysis. The changed resulting from Ukraine’s rugged defense and the ancillary effects will be felt for years.
Until we see it actually happen, this is an opinion
quote:
And comparing the mythical 2022 deal to a mythical 2025 deal is ludicrous. There is nothing written in stone to compare.
We do know some of the rough parameters of the 2022 deal though, whether the Ukucks want to finally rip their heads out of the sand and admit it or not. You don't send drafts back and forth if you're not agreeing on most of the content.
2
Posted on 12/19/24 at 3:39 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 12/19/24 at 3:55 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
This is a terrible analysis. The changed resulting from Ukraine’s rugged defense and the ancillary effects will be felt for years.
Until we see it actually happen, this is an opinion
All these things happened already:
Finland and Sweden joined NATO.
NATO countries invested more in defense.
Western Europe figured out ways to heat their homes without Russian gas.
NK put boots on the ground in Russia.
Wagner is gone.
Russian street cred had diminished.
The Russian military had been weakened.
quote:
You don't send drafts back and forth if you're not agreeing on most of the content.
I missed that. Do you have a link to what was included in these rough drafts?
Posted on 12/19/24 at 4:07 pm to doubleb
quote:
NATO countries invested more in defense.
This is continuing to accelerate. There's now widespread talk of 3% of GDP being the new standard, not 2%.
That's actually the chess game that I believe that Trump is playing. The more sour notes he hits right now on Ukraine, the more worried our European friends get, and the more they increase defense spending. And that lessens the level of our long-term defense obligation in Europe.
If Trump had come right out and said during the campaign that he was going to increase aid to Ukraine, all the Euros would've breathed.a sigh of relief and not allocated the defense spending that we are now seeing.
Posted on 12/19/24 at 6:38 pm to doubleb
quote:
Do you have a link to what was included in these rough drafts?
I dont agree with Vol on a lot, but there were drafts going back and forth. Why it fell apart depends on who you ask and it's a bit hard to sift through because of confirmation bias
What we do know is that publicly that Bucha happened and both Ukraine and Russia publicly stated that was a tilting point in the talks. Ukraine for saying Russia did war crimes and Russia for saying Ukraine faked it.
Then One of these things happened
1) borris/the west shot it down
2) Russia started making additional demands at the end that Ukraine didn't agree with (ie Russia started putting in poison pills such as Russia would have the authority to block any security guarantors from providing aid to Ukraine)
3) Something else and/or a combo of the above
Posted on 12/19/24 at 6:50 pm to StormyMcMan
4) When talks began, Ukraine was completely desperate, as it looked like Russia might take Kyiv, so they initially considered a horrible deal. But then the Ukrainians defeated the Russian assault on their capital, the very existence of their country was no longer at stake, and they were not inclined to accept a horrible deal.
Posted on 12/19/24 at 7:17 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
I dont agree with Vol on a lot, but there were drafts going back and forth. Why it fell apart depends on who you ask and it's a bit hard to sift through because of confirmation bias
I asked the question because I have never seen the rough drafts. Do you know what they said?
And if you’ve ever negotiated before you’d know that drafts going back and forth could mean a lot of things. It doesn’t mean the more drafts you have the closer you are to an agreement.
Both sides put out their own propaganda and I don’t believe the public really knows what was in the discussions.
Posted on 12/19/24 at 7:55 pm to doubleb
quote:
I asked the question because I have never seen the rough drafts. Do you know what they said?
This is what the WSJ reported as the conditions of the rough draft.
Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace
WSJ via MSN
Posted on 12/19/24 at 8:10 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
) When talks began, Ukraine was completely desperate, as it looked like Russia might take Kyiv, so they initially considered a horrible deal. But then the Ukrainians defeated the Russian assault on their capital, the very existence of their country was no longer at stake, and they were not inclined to accept a horrible deal.
Fake news!
The Kyiv offensive had been all but repelled by the first week of April but it was clear well before then Kyiv was fine. The document referenced in the reports was dated April 15th.
This post was edited on 12/19/24 at 8:13 pm
Posted on 12/19/24 at 8:11 pm to doubleb
quote:
And if you’ve ever negotiated before you’d know that drafts going back and forth could mean a lot of things. It doesn’t mean the more drafts you have the closer you are to an agreement.
Both sides put out their own propaganda and I don’t believe the public really knows what was in the discussions.
Just can't accept that he was wrong.
Head, meet sand.
Posted on 12/19/24 at 8:17 pm to cypher
Thank you
Posted on 12/19/24 at 8:18 pm to VolSquatch
quote:m
Just can't accept that he was wrong. Head, meet sand.
Keep posting you keep making a fool of yourself.
Posted on 12/19/24 at 8:24 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Thats not a personal stance, that's a reality.
Would you feel more comfortable punching Steve Buscemi or prime Mike Tyson?
Why would I punch either of them?
Posted on 12/19/24 at 8:41 pm to doubleb
This is the actual text of the draft referenced by the NYT. Note that the red italic and red bold text indicates the points of disagreements.
Draft as of 4/15/2022 - Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine
Draft as of 4/15/2022 - Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine
This post was edited on 12/19/24 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 12/19/24 at 9:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If Trump had come right out and said during the campaign that he was going to increase aid to Ukraine, all the Euros would've breathed.a sigh of relief and not allocated the defense spending that we are now seeing.
This is very likely 100% correct. A stronger Western Europe is the best deterrent to Russian expansionism. We can’t be expected to do it from this side of the Atlantic.
I stand by the opinion that Trump is coming in to office at a very good time from the standpoint of his being able to project American power in the world. If he and his advisers seize this opportunity, it will be good for American beyond the next four years. Putin’s weakness is Trump’s opportunity.
Posted on 12/19/24 at 9:30 pm to doubleb
Grandpas mad because he got caught unable to remember basic facts again
Posted on 12/19/24 at 10:08 pm to TBoy
quote:
This is very likely 100% correct. A stronger Western Europe is the best deterrent to Russian expansionism. We can’t be expected to do it from this side of the Atlantic.
I stand by the opinion that Trump is coming in to office at a very good time from the standpoint of his being able to project American power in the world. If he and his advisers seize this opportunity, it will be good for American beyond the next four years. Putin’s weakness is Trump’s opportunity.
Maybe so, but with Boomers all but gone from the workforce here and definitely in Europe, there aren't enough workers to fill existing jobs. I received an email from an engineer in TN that his last day was tomorrow. A personal friend retired from that same multinational company as their top chemical engineer who informed me that the plant had shutdown production lines because they cannot find workers. So, administration and engineering had to be cut. They are a net exporter to China and Especially Europe.
Russia's demographics and work force are in far worse shape though.
This post was edited on 12/19/24 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 12/19/24 at 11:09 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 12/19/24 at 11:34 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Maybe so, but with Boomers all but gone from the workforce here and definitely in Europe, there aren't enough workers to fill existing jobs. I received an email from an engineer in TN that his last day was tomorrow. A personal friend retired from that same multinational company as their top chemical engineer who informed me that the plant had shutdown production lines because they cannot find workers. So, administration and engineering had to be cut.
How can this be? Is the problem finding plant workers who are qualified?
Posted on 12/20/24 at 12:04 am to John Barron
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