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Posted on 11/24/24 at 10:53 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Your 12 DV's (excepting my singular UV) indicate facts are stubborn things, and truth sometimes hurts. People in this thread have a reality to face, yet are obviously too fragile to do so.
There is too much cheerleading and not enough facts, but compared to the political board, there are many more factual postings here.
I prefer facts and data to ideological cheerleading.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 12:01 am to Auburn1968
The Russian Rubble is down vs Rupee, Yuan, Dollar,etc... While it makes Russian goods less expensive, it also makes imported (most finished goods and high tech components) more expensive for Russia.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 3:07 am to CitizenK
Posted on 11/25/24 at 3:21 am to cypher
ISW Update Nov 24
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated. The frontline in Donetsk Oblast is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023.
Russian advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions present the Russian military command with several courses of action (COAs) that the Russian command may attempt in the coming weeks and months.
COA 1: Russian forces advance southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to envelop the settlement from its flanks, bypassing the area immediately south of Velyka Novosilka.
COA 2: Russian forces advance to Andriivka (along the H15 highway and west of Kurakhove) from the south in support of Russian efforts to close the Ukrainian pockets near Kurakhove and level the frontline.
COA 3: Russian forces advance west and southwest from Selydove along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line in the direction of Andriivka to collapse the Ukrainian pocket north of Kurakhove and threaten Ukrainian egress routes.
The Russian military command is likely planning on how to advance into the southeasternmost part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in support of Russia's longstanding objective to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.
Elements of the Russian Central, Eastern, and Southern military districts (CMD, EMD, and SMD) are conducting simultaneous, mutually supportive offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and have recently made relatively rapid tactical advances. The Russian military command may be learning from some battlefield mistakes after three years of war, but the extent of this learning is currently unclear.
The Russian military command appears to be planning more complex operations, but Russian forces have yet to be able to restore operational maneuver to the battlefield and are instead still relying on their ability to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defensive lines to make gradual, tactical advances.
Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 air defense system radar in an unspecified area in Kursk Oblast on the night of November 23 to 24.
Russia reportedly recruited hundreds of Yemeni nationals to fight in the Russian military amid growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed Houthi movement.
Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 5:57 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
25 November 2024
It is likely that Ukraine will see real economic growth of around 3 per cent in 2024. This continues the trend of wartime recovery after Ukraine's economy contracted by around 29 per cent in 2022, followed by real economic growth of 5 per cent in 2023. The IMF has forecast an average annual inflation rate of 5.8 per cent for 2024, down from a peak of around 20 per cent in 2022. Defence spending is expected to account for
approximately 60 per cent of Ukraine's state expenditures in 2025.
The Russian economy will likely grow by around 3.6 per cent in 2024, a continuing trend of growth since the initial economic shock of the war in 2022. This growth is highly likely being driven by government spending, particularly on the Military Industrial Complex. However, economic growth is forecast to slow in 2025 due to pressures from inflation, labour shortages and sanctions.
Russian defence spending is expected to increase further in 2025 to account for 32 per cent of total budget expenditures, while other areas of the budget such as social spending face cuts. Increased government spending will highly likely intensify existing inflationary pressures in the economy, with an annual average inflation rate of 7.9 per cent forecast for 2024.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
25 November 2024
It is likely that Ukraine will see real economic growth of around 3 per cent in 2024. This continues the trend of wartime recovery after Ukraine's economy contracted by around 29 per cent in 2022, followed by real economic growth of 5 per cent in 2023. The IMF has forecast an average annual inflation rate of 5.8 per cent for 2024, down from a peak of around 20 per cent in 2022. Defence spending is expected to account for
approximately 60 per cent of Ukraine's state expenditures in 2025.
The Russian economy will likely grow by around 3.6 per cent in 2024, a continuing trend of growth since the initial economic shock of the war in 2022. This growth is highly likely being driven by government spending, particularly on the Military Industrial Complex. However, economic growth is forecast to slow in 2025 due to pressures from inflation, labour shortages and sanctions.
Russian defence spending is expected to increase further in 2025 to account for 32 per cent of total budget expenditures, while other areas of the budget such as social spending face cuts. Increased government spending will highly likely intensify existing inflationary pressures in the economy, with an annual average inflation rate of 7.9 per cent forecast for 2024.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 6:20 am to cypher
quote:
The Russian economy will likely grow by around 3.6 per cent in 2024, a continuing trend of growth since the initial economic shock of the war in 2022. This growth is highly likely being driven by government spending, particularly on the Military Industrial Complex. However, economic growth is forecast to slow in 2025 due to pressures from inflation, labour shortages and sanctions.
Should fighting stop and troops come home (other than body bags) what economy remains? It's not like made friends over the last almost 4 years to export to.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 6:22 am to cypher
Ukraine’s Defense Forces strike key targets in Russia’s Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk regions – General Staff
25.11.2024 13:20
On the night of November 25, Ukraine's Defense Forces launched strikes on several critical targets of the Russian invaders in Bryansk, Kaluga, and Kursk regions of Russia.
According to Ukrinform, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this on Facebook.
"On the night of November 25, units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces, attacked several key targets, including in Bryansk, Kaluga, and Kursk regions," the statement reads.
Confirmed reports indicate a successful strike on an oil depot in Kaluga region. The results of strikes on other targets are still being clarified.
Ukrinform
25.11.2024 13:20
On the night of November 25, Ukraine's Defense Forces launched strikes on several critical targets of the Russian invaders in Bryansk, Kaluga, and Kursk regions of Russia.
According to Ukrinform, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this on Facebook.
"On the night of November 25, units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces, attacked several key targets, including in Bryansk, Kaluga, and Kursk regions," the statement reads.
Confirmed reports indicate a successful strike on an oil depot in Kaluga region. The results of strikes on other targets are still being clarified.
Ukrinform
Posted on 11/25/24 at 6:26 am to cypher
Overnight, Ukrainian drones targeted an oil refinery in the Russian city of Kaluga.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/25/24 at 6:31 am to cypher
Missile component factory catches fire in Russia's Kaluga after attack – video
Iryna Balachuk — Monday, 25 November 2024, 07:54
Drones have attacked the Typhoon plant, which is part of the Russian defence industrial base, in the city of Kaluga, Kaluga Oblast, Russia.
Source: Andrii Kovalenko, Head of the National Security and Defence Council's Center for Countering Disinformation, on Telegram
Details: Kovalenko said that this plant produces communication systems, electronic intelligence and radar equipment and manufactures components for surveillance and guidance systems installed on military equipment.
Typhoon also produces parts for air defence systems, aircraft and missile systems, and maintains and improves equipment in service with the Russian military.
Ukrainska Pravda
Iryna Balachuk — Monday, 25 November 2024, 07:54
Drones have attacked the Typhoon plant, which is part of the Russian defence industrial base, in the city of Kaluga, Kaluga Oblast, Russia.
Source: Andrii Kovalenko, Head of the National Security and Defence Council's Center for Countering Disinformation, on Telegram
Details: Kovalenko said that this plant produces communication systems, electronic intelligence and radar equipment and manufactures components for surveillance and guidance systems installed on military equipment.
Typhoon also produces parts for air defence systems, aircraft and missile systems, and maintains and improves equipment in service with the Russian military.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 11/25/24 at 7:15 am to REG861
quote:I haven't seen that.
Trinidad posted the laughable “zelensky vineyard “ trope. I’ll eagerly await you to call it out.
But yes, there have been a number of false allegations tying the Zelenskyys to various spending adventures. Some appear more credible than others, at first glance. The Economist has a great piece on this. People with reasonable suspicions of Zelenskyy can easily get caught up in those "tropes." If Trinidad did, he got taken. I have no problem whatsoever "calling it out," though it's on a completely different level than the BS you posted about him.
I noted "reasonable suspicions." Let's explore bases for "reasonable suspicions" about the Zelenskyys:
• Ukraine obviously has a long history of corruption, as do its leaders.
• Up to half of monetary and material aid to Ukraine may have been stolen. LINK, LINK
• Zelenkyy's benefactor, Igor Kolomoyskyi, is notoriously corrupt. He even pulled off a swindle of one of Putin's equally corrupt oligarchs, which I find particularly amusing. But he's been implicated in a variety of crimes, upto and including murder. LINK, LINK, LINK
• Geo Leros, a Ukrainian Member of Parliament and former Zelenskyy ally, says Zelenskyy and his associates took about $40 million from Kolomoyskyi then laundered it in offshore accounts LINK
• The Zelenskyys own an odd litany of questionable appearing offshore businesses which serve as source material for the "tropes" you're berating. E.g., San Tommaso SRL, an Italian HQ'd REIT owned by Zelenskyy was at the center of the "Vineyard Trope." Zelenskyy's Belize-registered firm called Film Heritage, Inc was center of a similar $100M Casino "trope." Zelenskyy owns Aldorante Limited, a Cyprus-based business front. He also is involved with a shady a BVI registered company. LINK
So there are plenty of appearances of Zelenskyy impropriety involved. Granted, appearances do not equate to guilt. But in my experience, when there is so much smoke, there's usually a fire.
Regardless, my take is this entire atrocity of a war was easily avoidable. Once started it could and should have ended within months. Ukraine got unwittingly maneuvered into the thing. Russian actions were predictable. NATO affiliates knew that from the outset, yet did nothing to de-escalate, quite the opposite. My suspicion is Zelenskyy was offered personal reward by the West in Apr2022 to shutdown negotiations. This is not, nor was it ever, a contest that can end favorably for Ukraine. Zelenskyy had to know that. We certainly know that. The UK knows that. Russia, Putin, knows it as well, and is out to take the fullest advantage possible.
quote:and FWIW, we are currently in an Ice Age
Any time before the next ice age please.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 7:16 am to cypher
Posted on 11/25/24 at 8:08 am to NC_Tigah
You could post the same kinds of things about Trump and say with all this smoke there must be a fire.
But Zekensky as we all know had no role in the government of Ukraine when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. He has become the target of Russian propaganda just as Trump became the target of Democrat propaganda.
Zelensky is not the bad guy here Putin is. He launched the war and he ratcheted it up. There are no excuses for what he did. If he really believes NATO is a threat he should be attacking NATO not some independent nation who wants in.
But Zekensky as we all know had no role in the government of Ukraine when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. He has become the target of Russian propaganda just as Trump became the target of Democrat propaganda.
Zelensky is not the bad guy here Putin is. He launched the war and he ratcheted it up. There are no excuses for what he did. If he really believes NATO is a threat he should be attacking NATO not some independent nation who wants in.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 8:22 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
and FWIW, we are currently in an Ice Age
This is true
Posted on 11/25/24 at 8:26 am to doubleb
quote:That is not exactly what I said, is it.
with all this smoke there must be a fire.
What I said is appearances do not equate to guilt.
What I said is in my experience, when there is so much smoke, there's usually a fire.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 9:18 am to cypher
From that tweet:
quote:In this day and age, a 24k BPD refinery sounds pretty small. I've got to think that very, very little U.S. refined products come out of refineries of less than 100k BPD, and there seem to be a lot of 250k BPD refineries. Is the Russian petroleum industry operating on that much of a different scale / different economies of scale? That sounds pretty primitive, but maybe that just reflects my ignorance of the global petroleum industry.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones targeted an oil refinery in the Russian city of Kaluga. The Kaluganaftoprodukt refinery, has a nominal oil refining capacity of 1.2 million tons per year, which is approximately 24,000 barrels per day.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 10:02 am to CitizenK
quote:
Should fighting stop and troops come home (other than body bags) what economy remains? It's not like made friends over the last almost 4 years to export to.
Putin's misadventure in Ukraine has done a lot of long term damage to Russia at a lot of levels. It will take decades to repair international trade relations with Europe and America even if they get a leader who doesn't suffer from delusions of being Peter the Great.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:37 am to Auburn1968
This thing is still going on?
Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:40 am to grizzlylongcut
quote:
This thing is still going on?
Yeah. Ukraine would win but there are several people in this thread that won’t go help because they are scared of Russians.
Posted on 11/25/24 at 11:46 am to texag7
quote:
Yeah. Ukraine would win but there are several people in this thread that won’t go help because they are scared of Russians.
Brilliance on display
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