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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/31/24 at 5:59 pm to Camp Randall
Posted on 10/31/24 at 5:59 pm to Camp Randall
In my post I used truly as a modifier, keep up son....
And stay on topic, we are discussing the end of zelensky fleecing the US.
quote:
Truly is the adverbial form of the adjective “true.” It's used to mean “in a truthful way,” “absolutely,” or “properly.” It can be used to modify a verb, adjective, or adverb.
And stay on topic, we are discussing the end of zelensky fleecing the US.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 6:15 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
we are discussing the end of zelensky fleecing the US.
That must be really near. Since you said the eastern front was collapsing over two years ago.
And that Russia had punched a huge hole in Ukraine lines back in July.
And the troops in Kursk would be kicked out of Russia in two weeks (back in August).
And now the end is near??? When can we expect the Zhelensky regime to fall? Kiev by Christmas???
Posted on 10/31/24 at 6:16 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Given the sheer development of Chinese industry, it isn't as though where they are now is meaningful in terms of where they will be. Which is true of several states who had non-existent internal defense complexes at the turn of the century which are now much more robust. Again, the intrinsic factors, such as drive, vision, and the most important extrinsic factor, money, are on the side of the Chinese.
After the CCP recognized China's technological backwardness as a great weakness, they gave Party membership priority to engineers and people of hard tech backgrounds and ramped up engineering and tech schools. They also steal IP every chance they get any way they can.
Engineers are going to do engineer things.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 6:18 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
And stay on topic, we are discussing the end of zelensky fleecing the US.
You didn’t say truly.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 6:33 pm to doubleb
Even after all the recent tax hikes, more are on the way for Russians now swimming in a very expensive war economy — Reuters
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/31/24 at 8:24 pm to cypher
ISW Oct 31st
quote:
Key Takeaways:
North Korea and Russia signed an agreement on October 30 to cooperate in the sphere of digital communications — the latest development in Russian-North Korean cooperation likely aimed at enhancing the Kremlin's digital authoritarianism tools to increase domestic repressions.
The South Korean government reportedly intends to send an unspecified number of South Korean personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to communicate that he is uninterested in a negotiated ceasefire and is committed to achieving his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine and ensure future aid provisions over the long-term.
The Russian military command continues to commit seriously wounded personnel to highly attritional infantry-led “meat” assaults in the Kurakhove direction as Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to posture himself as deeply concerned with the medical treatment of Russian veterans.
The Moldovan Constitutional Court confirmed on October 31 the passing of the October 20 European Union (EU) referendum with a 50.72 percent turnout rate.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kurakhove.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:11 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kurakhove.
I’ve been absent from this tread for a while. Honest question, it appears this was is still pretty much stuck in a stalemate. How much longer can things go on this way?
Posted on 10/31/24 at 9:37 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
’ve been absent from this tread for a while. Honest question, it appears this was is still pretty much stuck in a stalemate. How much longer can things go on this way?
Lima says it’s about to end now.
But reports indicate Russia is planning on a long haul.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 11:56 pm to doubleb
Russia can't find buyers for its bonds and is financing its deficit with cash from its sovereign wealth fund. It's projected to run out sometime in 2025. At that point Putin won't be able to pay for his war without making drastic cuts to the domestic spending that's insulated most Russians from having to sacrifice much, and more to the point that has allowed the oligarchs and bureaucrats to stay happy by siphoning off their graft.
Unless western experts are completely wrong, 2025 is also when Russia will start having serious difficulty with manpower and equipment shortages. Meanwhile Ukraine is facing problems of its own, as well as uncertainty over US support post election.
Whether Ukraine crumbles, holds on long enough for the Russian war economy to grind to a halt, or has an unfavorable peace forced on it by a new US administration is anybody guess. But I think something decisive will occur before the end of next year.
Unless western experts are completely wrong, 2025 is also when Russia will start having serious difficulty with manpower and equipment shortages. Meanwhile Ukraine is facing problems of its own, as well as uncertainty over US support post election.
Whether Ukraine crumbles, holds on long enough for the Russian war economy to grind to a halt, or has an unfavorable peace forced on it by a new US administration is anybody guess. But I think something decisive will occur before the end of next year.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 4:48 am to Jim Rockford
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
01 November 2024
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
According to Russian independent media, convictions on treason charges in Russia are at the highest level in at least 9 years, with more convictions in the first 6 months of 2024 than in all of 2023, citing data from the Russian Ministry of Justice. Similarly, there has been significant growth in convictions under criminal articles relating to extremism, terrorism, and disinformation.
This conviction data illustrates the increasing reliance by the Russian government on coercive and demonstratively deterrent methods to maintain control over elements of the population that are hostile to the regime. Prior to Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, the regime would usually preference more subtle ways of controlling dissent.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
01 November 2024
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
According to Russian independent media, convictions on treason charges in Russia are at the highest level in at least 9 years, with more convictions in the first 6 months of 2024 than in all of 2023, citing data from the Russian Ministry of Justice. Similarly, there has been significant growth in convictions under criminal articles relating to extremism, terrorism, and disinformation.
This conviction data illustrates the increasing reliance by the Russian government on coercive and demonstratively deterrent methods to maintain control over elements of the population that are hostile to the regime. Prior to Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, the regime would usually preference more subtle ways of controlling dissent.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 6:57 am to cypher
Over 2,000 Russian strike drones attack Ukraine in October, most intercepted – General Staff
01.11.2024 11:08
Throughout October, Russian forces deployed 2,023 Shahed-type and unidentified strike UAVs against civilian and military targets in Ukraine, bringing the total to 6,987 strike UAVs launched since the beginning of 2024.
This information was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Telegram, according to Ukrinform.
"In October this year, Russian forces used 2,023 strike UAVs of the Shahed type and unidentified models against Ukrainian civilian and military sites. Of these, 1,185 were destroyed or neutralized by Ukrainian defenders, 738 were lost from traking, and 29 UAVs exited Ukrainian-controlled airspace. Since the start of 2024, the enemy has launched a total of 6,987 strike UAVs over Ukrainian territory," the message reads.
The majority of these hostile drones targeted Ukraine's civilian and critical infrastructure.
Ukrinform
01.11.2024 11:08
Throughout October, Russian forces deployed 2,023 Shahed-type and unidentified strike UAVs against civilian and military targets in Ukraine, bringing the total to 6,987 strike UAVs launched since the beginning of 2024.
This information was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Telegram, according to Ukrinform.
"In October this year, Russian forces used 2,023 strike UAVs of the Shahed type and unidentified models against Ukrainian civilian and military sites. Of these, 1,185 were destroyed or neutralized by Ukrainian defenders, 738 were lost from traking, and 29 UAVs exited Ukrainian-controlled airspace. Since the start of 2024, the enemy has launched a total of 6,987 strike UAVs over Ukrainian territory," the message reads.
The majority of these hostile drones targeted Ukraine's civilian and critical infrastructure.
Ukrinform
Posted on 11/1/24 at 7:22 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:32 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
trinidadtiger
It has been more than 4months since you said Kharkiv would fall in hours and Kharkiv still has not fallen. Why were you so wrong?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:38 am to WeeWee
quote:
It was supposed to fall in late August or early September at the latest.
Per who?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 8:45 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kurakhove.
I’ve been absent from this tread for a while. Honest question, it appears this was is still pretty much stuck in a stalemate. How much longer can things go on this way?
Even with 50-90% of US aid not being delivered to Ukraine in a timely fashion Russia cannot defeat Ukraine. The Ukrainians are unable to dislodge Russia from its soil. The Ukrainians hate the Russians. The Russians believe Putin's lies that they are fighting NATO in Ukraine. Neither side appears willing to give an inch so any talks that Trump or anyone else tries to mediate will likely fail. Even if a ceasefire does happen the conflict would continue as an insurgency. So the answer to your question is a long damn time. If the over/under was placed at 5.5 years I would take the over.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:29 am to WeeWee
quote:
any talks that Trump or anyone else tries to mediate will likely fail.
This will age like milk
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:47 am to texag7
Anti-drone nets saved Russian oil depot
During today’s long-range drone attack on the Stavropol Krai of the Russian Federation, anti-drone nets protected a Russian oil depot.
Local Telegram channels published the video of the drone strike.
The protective structures with nets around the perimeter of the oil bunkers stopped a direct hit by a Ukrainian strike drone.
As a result of the impact, the high-explosive-incendiary warhead of the drone detonated, but was unable to cause damage to the storage facility and create a fire.
Militarnyi
During today’s long-range drone attack on the Stavropol Krai of the Russian Federation, anti-drone nets protected a Russian oil depot.
Local Telegram channels published the video of the drone strike.
The protective structures with nets around the perimeter of the oil bunkers stopped a direct hit by a Ukrainian strike drone.
As a result of the impact, the high-explosive-incendiary warhead of the drone detonated, but was unable to cause damage to the storage facility and create a fire.
Militarnyi
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:56 am to WeeWee
quote:
So the answer to your question is a long damn time. If the over/under was placed at 5.5 years I would take the over
I don't think either side can or will sustain this. Russia will either tap out and negotiate peace or Ukraine will collapse before then.
The US centric view (which would also be possibly the most optimistic for Ukraine) is that Russia is blowing its load now because it thinks Trump will win, and it thinks Trump will more or less force them into peace talks by offering Ukraine weapons and support that the Biden administration refused to offer if they don't come to the table. I think the other side of that coin is that Trump could also squeeze Zelensky into accepting terms the Biden admin wouldn't advise/allow him to accept. If this is true, Russia's gains are unsustainable and only meant to better their bargaining position.
The other possibility is just that this war is slipping away from Ukraine.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 10:13 am to VolSquatch
Russia invaded in 2014. That was over ten years ago. It went so well that they went for the whole enchilada 8 years later. To their surprise they flopped.
I could see the war returning to sbout where it was when Biden was elected with one exception. Russia would make strong counterattacks and drive Ukraine out of Kursk.
They would strengthen the front defensively and scale back offensive operations there. All the while they would beef up air defenses.
The war would go on but at a smaller scale. Putin can’t win it seems, but he can’t quit either.
I could see the war returning to sbout where it was when Biden was elected with one exception. Russia would make strong counterattacks and drive Ukraine out of Kursk.
They would strengthen the front defensively and scale back offensive operations there. All the while they would beef up air defenses.
The war would go on but at a smaller scale. Putin can’t win it seems, but he can’t quit either.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 12:08 pm to cypher
quote:
During today’s long-range drone attack on the Stavropol Krai of the Russian Federation, anti-drone nets protected a Russian oil depot.
This cost to install all of those nets was not cheap.
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