re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I’ve been absent from this tread for a while. Honest question, it appears this was is still pretty much stuck in a stalemate. How much longer can things go on this way?

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Neither side can long continue to wage war in the way that they currently are.

Ukraine is still facing manpower shortages, which is the biggest reason that they are continuing to lose significant ground in southern Donetsk (along with poor fortifications). But one significant reason for the manpower shortages is the lack of equipment for troops to use, so this is a chicken-and-egg problem, as Ukraine has never had enough armor and artillery for the men who are actually fighting.

Another component of this is that the US is running out of armor that can easily be sent to Ukraine. We have many, many hundreds of armored vehicles that are in long-term storage, but the DoD has not deigned to start refurbishing any of them, so they aren't fit to be sent to Ukraine.

The political will to fight is also just starting to wane in Ukraine, as polls show more and more people comfortable giving up some territory in exchange for peace.


But Russia's problems may be more severe.

Russia's storage bases have now been almost completely depleted of artillery, and reports from the field indicate that that artillery advantage Russia has enjoyed since the start of the war is now at its lowest level. That should continue to decline, as western 155mm production has finally ramped up.

This connects with the 2nd big concern of Russia: the rapidly increasing production of weapons inside Ukraine. Rheinmetall is now building three separate plants in Ukraine, and one of them is already operational. The recent US investment of $800 million in Ukraine's drone industry is very bad news for Moscow, as Ukraine will significantly increase its ability to hit every part of Russia with impunity.

In the meantime, Russia is not only starting to run low on artillery, but also on armored vehicles. Storage bases have almost been completely depleted, and Russia is losing some 15 or so per day. The math for Russia simply doesn't work, and it gets worse if the South Korean defense industry starts producing for Ukraine.

And no one really knows how much longer Russian bankers can keep up the incredible juggling act that has kept their economy from collapse. As Russian interest rates climb up over 20%, inflation is beginning to impose real costs. And their sovereign wealth fund has only been sustained because they have a lot of gold in it, and the price of gold has gone up a lot this year. A big drop in the price of oil or gold would devastate Russia.


So, this isn't a war that can continue indefinitely. How it ends, though, is still up in the air.