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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/25/24 at 9:14 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 10/25/24 at 9:14 pm to StormyMcMan
In the first entire year of fighting Ukraine had 9,000 deserters, so far this year, over 50,000.
Conscripted, not trained, no equipment, and getting the shat kicked out of them by the russians are the main reasons.
Buildings in kyiv on fire yet again.
Much of ukraine could suffer daily power outages of between 8 to 18 hours and the temps are dropping into the 30s now.
The only people who want to keep this going are the ones making money off of it at this point, certainly not the ukranian people, heck they have voted with their feet and nearly 20% have already left.
I do hope Trump cuts off funding and support day one and puts an end to this nonsense.
Conscripted, not trained, no equipment, and getting the shat kicked out of them by the russians are the main reasons.
Buildings in kyiv on fire yet again.
Much of ukraine could suffer daily power outages of between 8 to 18 hours and the temps are dropping into the 30s now.
The only people who want to keep this going are the ones making money off of it at this point, certainly not the ukranian people, heck they have voted with their feet and nearly 20% have already left.
I do hope Trump cuts off funding and support day one and puts an end to this nonsense.
1
Posted on 10/25/24 at 9:40 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
In the first entire year of fighting Ukraine had 9,000 deserters, so far this year, over 50,000.
Wow. Thanks for bringing amazing news to this thread and linking reliable sources. You are such a valuable poster.
Posted on 10/25/24 at 10:29 pm to Lee B
So one can know what Drumpth will do because he doesn't have a clue what he is going to do
Posted on 10/26/24 at 1:25 am to TutHillTiger
We should send the nukes. Reset the whole ordeal. Far less collateral damage than when this thing inevitably falls into a global altercation. Biden ice cream I’ll take Trump here. At least the guy knows how to say hello every now and then. Turn it into glass either way it’s win/win.
Posted on 10/26/24 at 7:51 am to IamNotaRobot
Posted on 10/26/24 at 7:57 am to Lee B
quote:5 years later?
I don't believe he would've been able to actually do much to stop Putin, because America was just suddenly exhausted from the Bush/Cheney adventures
Regardless, had the Obama administration not stuck its nose into Ukrainian politics and orchestrated a coup, Crimea would still be Ukrainian today.
Posted on 10/26/24 at 9:39 am to NC_Tigah
As Trump correctly stated in his Rogan interview, allowing oil prices to rise gave Putin the funds to invade in 2022.
Posted on 10/26/24 at 10:29 am to CitizenK
I don’t think oil prices were a factor, yes, the Russians had gotten to the point where they through they had sufficiently modernized the ground forces, and they believed they were autarkic enough to survive what came, but it was the conclusion that NATO membership was happening, at that point, Russian avos took over.
It’s the same impulse that drove the Pristina Dash, or the invasion of Prussia in the opening days of WW1.
It’s the same impulse that drove the Pristina Dash, or the invasion of Prussia in the opening days of WW1.
This post was edited on 10/26/24 at 10:57 am
Posted on 10/26/24 at 10:35 am to SirWinston
quote:
who is Robert Kagan
Umm the guy who founded the Institute for the Study of War that you goon over 3 times a day?
quote:
by SirWinston
Further confirmation you are confused about gender.Posted on 10/26/24 at 11:51 am to GOP_Tiger
Pedo Peter and Hussein have done so much good for Ukraine
Posted on 10/26/24 at 12:46 pm to CitizenK
quote:
As Trump correctly stated in his Rogan interview, allowing oil prices to rise gave Putin the funds to invade in 2022.
Well, how much did Putin originally spend on the invasion? Most of the troops didn't have ammo, there was barely any gas in the vehicles, the cheap Chinese tires on everything blew out. And Russian troops were banging on doors demanding food because they had no rations. I guess he might've thought he'd spent millions and the corruption on every level of the Russian military took it all. He did spend millions over the years on psy ops in Ukraine to convince the population that Europe and America were awful and they should want to be Russian...
But wasn't it also all the Natural Gas revenue from Europe that really stuffed his coffers?
And OPEC is ultimately the one who exerts control on oil prices, and they've actually done Putin a solid or two during this...
speaking of which, isn't Saudi Arabia pissed at losing market share to the few countries that didn't go through with pulling back production so they're about to turn on the spigot and put those places out of business by driving the price down for a while? You know much, much, much, much more about that sector than I do, and I believe US shale production is cheap enough to not really be dragged down but it would spell trouble for Russia?
I also don't understand the talk of dissuading Israel from hitting Iranian Oil production to not harm the global market.... because 90% of Iran's oil goes to China because of sanctions, right? And China's demand actually goes down as prices go up? But I guess any excuse for traders to hold futures and make their bank...
Posted on 10/26/24 at 12:56 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
I don’t think oil prices were a factor, yes, the Russians had gotten to the point where they through they had sufficiently modernized the ground forces, and they believed they were autarkic enough to survive what came, but it was the conclusion that NATO membership was happening, at that point, Russian avos took over.
It’s the same impulse that drove the Pristina Dash, or the invasion of Prussia in the opening days of WW1.
Would this have eventually happened if someone other than Putin was in power?
I think so. Paranoia about being invaded and being geographically vulnerable is just baked into the Russian psyche... because of their history. Yeltsin launched these same actions in places immediately when he came to power right after the USSR disintegrated.
The same reason that antipathy towards Russia is baked into the Polish and Baltic states and Romanian and Bulgarian psyches...
The extra factor is that Putin in particular does not want thriving EU countries in view of his peasants because that will lead to unrest eventually. And he fears a color revolution more than anything else.
The driving thing to all of this is paranoia.
This post was edited on 10/26/24 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 10/26/24 at 1:52 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 10/26/24 at 2:15 pm to Lima Whiskey
High cost for Russia to produce oil and ship to point of export due inherent inefficiencies of thousands of miles as well as well Russia and its corruption. Trump properly stated at least $40 per barrel required for any profit from oil sales. I was told that it was more like $50 per barrel in 2015
Posted on 10/26/24 at 2:21 pm to DMAN1968
“It is the lack of weapons and munitions that is the major stopper from mobilisation,” Davlikanova told Al Jazeera. “It would have been way cheaper to supply enough air defence systems on time than plan Ukraine’s reconstruction, the cost of which is close to half a trillion US dollars,” she added, referring to the estimated cost of rebuilding the devastated country.
Is Russia facing the same problem?
Manpower and weaponry problems are also putting pressure on the Russian side, experts say.
Is Russia facing the same problem?
Manpower and weaponry problems are also putting pressure on the Russian side, experts say.
This post was edited on 10/26/24 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 10/26/24 at 2:28 pm to DMAN1968
Thanks for the link, but it's a pro-Russian opinion piece masquerading as news.
Take this bit:
In reality, sources on both sides have recently said that Russia's artillery advantage is now at its lowest level of the war. Why would the author try to paint a false picture on the current artillery balance based solely on a comment from April? The question answers itself.
The author also doesn't seem to be any kind of expert on this conflict. She normally writes about Africa. I looked at the headlines of every article she's written in 2024, and the only ones that mentioned Russia or Ukraine were an article on Africans who had been in Ukraine and fled the fighting to the Netherlands, and an article on Mali's anger with Ukraine after Ukraine hinted that it helped Taureg rebels kill Wagner troops in Mali.
Looking at her Twitter/X account, I scrolled back a year and didn't see a single tweet about Russia or Ukraine -- most of it lately is sympathy for Gaza.
Take this bit:
quote:
Speaking in the United States Congress during a testimony on April 10, General Christopher Cavoli, head of US European Command, described Russia’s five-to-one advantage in artillery shells, predicting that would soon grow to 10 to one.
In reality, sources on both sides have recently said that Russia's artillery advantage is now at its lowest level of the war. Why would the author try to paint a false picture on the current artillery balance based solely on a comment from April? The question answers itself.
The author also doesn't seem to be any kind of expert on this conflict. She normally writes about Africa. I looked at the headlines of every article she's written in 2024, and the only ones that mentioned Russia or Ukraine were an article on Africans who had been in Ukraine and fled the fighting to the Netherlands, and an article on Mali's anger with Ukraine after Ukraine hinted that it helped Taureg rebels kill Wagner troops in Mali.
Looking at her Twitter/X account, I scrolled back a year and didn't see a single tweet about Russia or Ukraine -- most of it lately is sympathy for Gaza.
Posted on 10/26/24 at 2:53 pm to DMAN1968
So you like NY Times authors based in Nigeria? Got it
Posted on 10/26/24 at 5:25 pm to Lee B
quote:
The extra factor is that Putin in particular does not want thriving EU countries in view of his peasants because that will lead to unrest eventually.
The EU is in difficult shape economically, and Russia has a better immediate future.
quote:
peasants because that will lead to unrest
Putin wouldn’t see poor Russians, the people who were once peasants, as being an “other” that would revolt. They’re one people.
Also, Russians didn’t revolt even at the countries nadir in the 90s. What you did see was ethnic separatism from the Islamic groups.
quote:
And he fears a color revolution more than anything else.
The war killed off the liberals.
quote:
Would this have eventually happened if someone other than Putin was in power?
I agree with you. I think he reacted the way any Russian leader would have responded.
This post was edited on 10/26/24 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 10/26/24 at 7:13 pm to Lima Whiskey
...what Putin fears most is the independence of Russia’s neighbours — not because they pose a military threat to the country’s security, but because they pose a political threat to his rule.
Putin worries that if any of these states becomes a successful and prosperous democracy, let alone fully integrates with the west, the Russian people will demand the same. To forestall that, Putin has tried to ensure the neighbouring states are run by strongmen dependent on Russia to stay in power.
Vladimir Putin’s deepest fear is the freedom of Russia’s neighbours
Putin worries that if any of these states becomes a successful and prosperous democracy, let alone fully integrates with the west, the Russian people will demand the same. To forestall that, Putin has tried to ensure the neighbouring states are run by strongmen dependent on Russia to stay in power.
Vladimir Putin’s deepest fear is the freedom of Russia’s neighbours
Posted on 10/26/24 at 7:33 pm to Lee B
ISW Update Oct 26th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Bloomberg reported on October 25, citing South Korean intelligence documents, that a second group of North Korean soldiers will soon deploy to Russia.
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced preparations to open additional defense industrial plants in Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.
Russian military command is reportedly continuing to commit military specialists to assault operations and incurring unnecessary losses, likely in an effort to centralize control over Russian forces and maintain the tempo of Russian offensive operations throughout the theater.
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