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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/11/24 at 10:38 pm to gizmothepug
Posted on 10/11/24 at 10:38 pm to gizmothepug
ISW Update Oct 11th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces intensified their ongoing effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast around the evening of October 10 and have recently advanced further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast while reportedly eliminating almost the entirety of the smaller Ukrainian salient in Glushkovsky Raion.
Intensified Russian counterattacks likely aim to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast before poor weather conditions in Fall 2024 and early Winter 2024-2025 begin to constrain battlefield maneuver.
The Russian military command likely aims to rapidly push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast in order to free up combat power for its priority offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and to ease the theater-wide operational pressures that the Ukrainian incursion has generated.
South Korean and Ukrainian officials reportedly continue to identify North Korean military personnel already fighting in Ukraine as well as training in Russia for possible future deployments alongside the Russian military.
Western partners continue to announce and provide new military assistance to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues diplomatic efforts to establish and clarify Ukraine’s strategic vision for peace.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov declared a "blood feud" against Russian legislators, suggesting that Kadyrov is becoming increasingly emboldened in his personal political disputes.
Ukrainian officials confirmed that Ukrainian journalist Viktoriya Roshchyna died in Russian captivity.
Ukrainian officials announced new appointments in the Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
The Kremlin is deceptively recruiting young African women to assemble Iranian-designed Shahed drones in the Republic of Tatarstan, likely to address labor shortages in Russia.
1
Posted on 10/12/24 at 6:20 am to doubleb
quote:Very weird.... My boy??
Your boy
None of these characters are "my boy".
If you'd drop your schoolchild obsession with Zelenskyy, and actually read what you're responding to, rather than reading nonsense into it, you'd see that.
quote:Just a stupid, stupid strawman post. Sorry, but come on.
taking the money and running had nothing to do with Zekensky
When Yanukovych was overthrown, Zelenskyy was still dancing on camera in tights and stilettos. So of course the US-backed coup d'etat, and Yanukovych's exile in 2014, had nothing to do with Zekenskyy.
"Taking the money and running had nothing to do with" Taylor Swift either, though if you were as obsessed with Swift as you are with Z, you'd probably attempt that association as well.
quote:There you go again.
If Putin wasn’t a ruthless dictator, Russia wouldn’t have invaded.
----
Facts not remotely in evidence. The entire Russo polity said Ukraine to NATO = War. Not just Putin.
----
Putin led forces started ward in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukrsine and you font categorize Putin as a ruthless dictator???? Really???
Disregarding your incorrect Georgia assertion, I said nothing, yea or nay, about Putin being a ruthless dictator. Your premise was, if not for Putin (attach any Putin invectives you'd like), there would have been no invasion. That is simpleton fantasy.
There is virtual unanimity in animus for NATO amongst the Russian polity. I know of not one Russian public official who'd view NATO incorporation of Ukraine as anything but an overtly bellicose act, and an incendiary invitation to war. You want to make this about Putin, only Putin, and nothing but Putin. It isn't.
Regarding your "dictator" tangent, yes Putin is a dictator. Yes he is ruthless. It might surprise you that throughout history those two things - dictator and ruthless - are strongly associated. To the point that redundantly stringing them together leaves more an appearance of emotion than of insight.
Posted on 10/12/24 at 6:56 am to doubleb
quote:Some of these responses are just off.
They were as close as the US saying "Admit them."
---
You already admitted the West was leading them on.
"Already admitted"?
Stating simple facts, facts which I've never contradicted or refuted is an "admission"? Okay. Seems an odd malapropism to me, but whatever.
The expression I used was chasing a carrot. Eventually the carrot can be awarded, in this case, at US discretion. How close we were to that point was anyone's guess. Russia was simply tired of guessing.
quote:Again, facts are stubborn things. Biden's December 2021 assurances to Z regarding NATO directly contradict your claim.
No way Ukraine could get in putting NATO at war.
Posted on 10/12/24 at 7:33 am to NC_Tigah
Unconfirmed, seems like Fighterbomber is one of the russian sources.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/12/24 at 8:45 am to cypher
How close would the F-16 have to get for it's missiles to be in range? Early on the speculation was they wouldn't operate with 40k of the front? If that still holds that's a 90km shot.
Posted on 10/12/24 at 9:00 am to bigjoe1
Disclaimer: Not sure if these have been delivered.
As Ukraine Prepares to Get F-16s, US Provides AMRAAM Missiles
Sept. 2, 2023 | By Chris Gordon
Ukraine will receive AIM-120 AMRAAM advanced air-to-air missiles from the U.S. that could be used on its aircraft, Ukrainian officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.
“The United States will supply Ukraine with AMRAAM aircraft missiles with a range of 160-180 km,” said Yuriy Inhat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force.
LINK
Ukraine Gets Priority in Getting AIM-120 and Patriot Air Defense Missiles, How Many is Expected, Exactly
As Ukraine Prepares to Get F-16s, US Provides AMRAAM Missiles
Sept. 2, 2023 | By Chris Gordon
Ukraine will receive AIM-120 AMRAAM advanced air-to-air missiles from the U.S. that could be used on its aircraft, Ukrainian officials told Air & Space Forces Magazine.
“The United States will supply Ukraine with AMRAAM aircraft missiles with a range of 160-180 km,” said Yuriy Inhat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force.
LINK
Ukraine Gets Priority in Getting AIM-120 and Patriot Air Defense Missiles, How Many is Expected, Exactly
This post was edited on 10/12/24 at 9:04 am
Posted on 10/12/24 at 9:31 am to cypher
quote:
“The United States will supply Ukraine with AMRAAM aircraft missiles with a range of 160-180 km,” said Yuriy Inhat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force.
That would for sure put the Russian plane in range and keep the F-16 over Ukrainian lines.
Thanks
Posted on 10/12/24 at 10:39 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Your premise was, if not for Putin (attach any Putin invectives you'd like), there would have been no invasion. That is simpleton fantasy.
This is where you miss the boat.
There is no reason for Russia to spend billions of dollars, wreck their economy, lose thousands of able bodied men and cost themselves street cred and attack Ukraine except for Putin.
Russia is being led by an old school KGB type who believes in the old ways of the old empire. Replace him with a leader whose election isn’t rubber stamped and whose service is limited by real constitutional restraints and there would be no war.
Posted on 10/12/24 at 10:40 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Again, facts are stubborn things. Biden's December 2021 assurances to Z regarding NATO directly contradict your claim.
You said it yourself. Biden was just dangling the carrot,
Posted on 10/12/24 at 11:11 am to doubleb
Posted on 10/12/24 at 11:14 am to doubleb
quote:Yes, and he remained free to feed the carrot to the horse anytime he wanted.
Biden was just dangling the carrot,
This post was edited on 10/12/24 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 10/12/24 at 12:30 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Yes, and he remained free to feed the carrot to the horse anytime he wanted.
And after a couple of decades there was no reason to think Biden and the West were ready to let go of the carrot especially with Russian troops already in Ukraine.
No way.
Posted on 10/12/24 at 4:14 pm to CitizenK
Standing a few feet from Orban...
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/12/24 at 5:49 pm to cypher
this is the way...
Some partners also possess specialized technologies that can be applied in Ukraine right now, helping in our defense and active operations.
Some partners also possess specialized technologies that can be applied in Ukraine right now, helping in our defense and active operations.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/12/24 at 6:35 pm to cypher
ISW Update Oct 12th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces.
A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in an unspecified area of the theater on October 12, but ISW cannot verify the claim that a Ukrainian F-16 was involved in the reported loss of the Russian Su-34.
Unknown actors opened fire on personnel of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' (MVD) Center for Combating Extremism in Nazran, Republic of Ingushetia on the night of October 11.
Indian enterprises are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, in part thanks to large Russian reserves of rupees from oil sales to India.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
Russian forces are reportedly struggling to conduct effective counterbattery fires.
Posted on 10/13/24 at 1:15 am to StormyMcMan
Can we just give Ukes a few dozen nukes and move a few hundred to edge of Nato and call this a draw
Posted on 10/13/24 at 7:06 am to TutHillTiger
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 October 2024
Between 10 and 16 September 2024, the Russian Federation Navy (RFN) conducted OKEAN-24, a large-scale strategic exercise. This followed a two-year pause on any large-scale exercises by the Russian armed forces. Up until 2022, Russia would conduct an annual exercise involving all its armed forces - the Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE) - but the last two have been cancelled almost certainly as a consequence of the demands of the war in Ukraine
OKEAN-24 was likely an effort to demonstrate reach and capability in spite of the war. Initial Russian media reports stated that OKEAN-2024 would involve over 400 vessels, 120 aircraft, 7,000 vehicles and 90,000 personnel, with units conducting operations in the Barents, Baltic, Mediterranean and Caspian Sea as well as the Pacific and Arctic Oceans.
The exercise did operate in these areas, but Russia has almost certainly grossly exaggerated these figures as there are currently only around 300 vessels available to take part.
No OKEAN-2024 activity took place in the Black Sea, highly likely because of Ukrainian attacks in the first six months of 2024.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 October 2024
Between 10 and 16 September 2024, the Russian Federation Navy (RFN) conducted OKEAN-24, a large-scale strategic exercise. This followed a two-year pause on any large-scale exercises by the Russian armed forces. Up until 2022, Russia would conduct an annual exercise involving all its armed forces - the Joint Strategic Exercise (JSE) - but the last two have been cancelled almost certainly as a consequence of the demands of the war in Ukraine
OKEAN-24 was likely an effort to demonstrate reach and capability in spite of the war. Initial Russian media reports stated that OKEAN-2024 would involve over 400 vessels, 120 aircraft, 7,000 vehicles and 90,000 personnel, with units conducting operations in the Barents, Baltic, Mediterranean and Caspian Sea as well as the Pacific and Arctic Oceans.
The exercise did operate in these areas, but Russia has almost certainly grossly exaggerated these figures as there are currently only around 300 vessels available to take part.
No OKEAN-2024 activity took place in the Black Sea, highly likely because of Ukrainian attacks in the first six months of 2024.
Posted on 10/13/24 at 9:43 am to cypher
Posted on 10/13/24 at 9:49 am to John Barron
Germany's Scholz announces more military aid as Zelenskiy visits Berlin
By Andreas Rinke and Matthias Williams
October 11, 202410:21 AM CDT
Summary
Aid package includes air defence, tanks, drones, and artillery
Zelenskiy presents 'victory plan' to end war, seeks more weapons
Germany's support faces domestic political challenges
BERLIN, Oct 11 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday announced a 1.4 billion euro ($1.53 billion) military aid package for Ukraine by the end of 2024, telling President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that it was a signal to Russia that the West would not stop supporting Kyiv.
Reuters
By Andreas Rinke and Matthias Williams
October 11, 202410:21 AM CDT
Summary
Aid package includes air defence, tanks, drones, and artillery
Zelenskiy presents 'victory plan' to end war, seeks more weapons
Germany's support faces domestic political challenges
BERLIN, Oct 11 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Friday announced a 1.4 billion euro ($1.53 billion) military aid package for Ukraine by the end of 2024, telling President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that it was a signal to Russia that the West would not stop supporting Kyiv.
Reuters
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