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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/5/24 at 8:28 pm to Philzilla2k
Posted on 10/5/24 at 8:28 pm to Philzilla2k
quote:
New victory narrative.
He's correct per honest Russians
1
Posted on 10/5/24 at 8:34 pm to CitizenK
ISW Update Oct 5th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Russian Government plans to allocate 90 billion rubles ($948 million) to one-time payments for concluding a military contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) between 2025 and 2027, indicating that the Kremlin plans to continue relying on ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts to meet the manpower requirements of its war in Ukraine for as long as the crypto-mobilization system works.
Ukrainian officials continue to provide statistics regarding Russian war crimes, shedding light on the extent of violations committed by Russian forces and authorities.
The Russian government appears to have amended its plan to deanonymize Russian social media accounts following significant backlash within the Russian ultranationalist information space.
A recent Ukrainian missile strike near occupied Donetsk City reportedly killed several North Korean military officials.
Russian forces recently advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, near Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and southwest of Donetsk City.
Posted on 10/5/24 at 8:36 pm to Philzilla2k
quote:
New victory narrative
Maybe you just started reading this thread. Anyone here not getting paid by Putin has recognized since summer 2022 that Russia has suffered a strategic defeat.
The only thing in question is the scale of that defeat.
Posted on 10/5/24 at 8:56 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
GDP is pretty useless
How about famine ? Is that a good barometer of economic health? As in; North Korea suffered a mass famine in the last 30 years that killed a million people?
You are not well. You are ill.. Healthy people do not think like you do.
This post was edited on 10/5/24 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 10/6/24 at 2:04 am to REG861
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. We’ve taught the Russian how to defeat our weapons systems
Posted on 10/6/24 at 4:44 am to Lima Whiskey
The GMLRS rockets that Ukraine is firing at Russia are old tech. It's why we developed the PrSM.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 7:22 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
We’ve taught the Russian how to defeat our weapons systems
It's so cute that you think Ukraine is using our latest technology.....
Oh wait. You actually do know that's not true. Someone just pays you to pretend.
"It was always himself that the coward abandoned first. After this all other betrayals came easily." -- Cormac Mccarthy
Posted on 10/6/24 at 7:50 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There's no doubt that this war already represents a strategic defeat for Russia. NATO is much, much stronger now than it was a few years ago
Ehh, I don’t think the NATO point matters as much. They could easily defeat Russia before and will be able to more easily defeat them after, but if you’re Russia it was still a losing battle for you in 2021 so not sure the margin matters that much.
quote:
There has absolutely not been a "gradual shift."
The lines have been pretty stable for 2 years before the last few months, and they aren’t moving that swiftly now. That’s certainly a gradual shift from stalemate to Russian advantage. But that’s not addressing relative strength, which sounds like what you thought I meant.
quote:
The way that a peace deal would likely work would be that a ceasefire
A ceasefire is a ceasefire, a peace deal is something at least intended to be a lasting solution. Two separate concepts. The current lines won’t stay how they are with an actual peace deal. I don’t see Russia agreeing to Ukrainian control of any of their territory because it’s pretty clear they could just reroute resources they are using to advance in other areas and take that back, albeit likely at a high cost.
quote:
The Ukraine that emerges from this war will be far stronger than the country that existed pre-2022, and that is a strategic problem for Russia
I just don’t really buy this. I think Russia pretty much gets what they want in the East in the end. I think taking the whole country was more of a “nice to have” thing instead of tactically essential, and taking the whole country puts them directly on the border with NATO. If Ukraine doesn’t get NATO membership, which seems extremely dumb and unlikely, then they still have a buffer but get those areas of interest in the east.
This outcome is obviously better for Ukraine than just not existing anymore, but I think you’re downplaying the issues they will have in recovery a bit and overstating the impact of the EU. We are a couple of far right exit movements in certain countries away from the EU being gutted in terms of its impact.
Russia obviously has all kinds of problems after this too and will for decades, but driving them into China’s arms is probably worse for the world long term than if they just quickly won this war for a country that doesn’t really matter anyway.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 7:54 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russia has suffered a strategic defeat.
The problem isn’t this statement, it’s that you think that means Ukraine won.
The west has won a long term strategic victory over Russia. Ukraine is TBD
Posted on 10/6/24 at 7:56 am to No Colors
quote:
It's so cute that you think Ukraine is using our latest technology
You would think the west would give its best stuff to a country that was so important, per you.
That’s just more evidence that Ukraine just doesn’t really matter all that much.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 8:02 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
GDP is pretty useless
GDP in a country without rampant corruption is actually a pretty good barometer
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:45 am to VolSquatch
quote:
The west has won a long term strategic victory over Russia. Ukraine is TBD
I would agree with that.
Russian gains will they be enough to offset Russian losses? I do not think so.
Will Ukraine come out better? I don’t think so.
It’s kind of like this scenario. If a gang invades your home and puts you and your family at risk and they finally leave; you can only judge the totality of the horror after they leave.
Was you or your family harmed?
Did they steal all your valuables?
Did they miss the safe hidden in the closet?
Did they damage anything?
If Russia is forced to stop the war and agrees to a cease fire, Ukraine’s fate is still up in the air. Russia might resume as the Commies did in Viet Nam. Russia might just bully Ukraine and grab more land as they did with Crimea.
No one knows.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:35 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The problem isn’t this statement, it’s that you think that means Ukraine won.
No, I actually thought that I was pretty clear with my comparison to Finland's Winter War with the USSR. A negotiated end to the war would be more complicated for Ukraine than "winning" or "losing "
Posted on 10/6/24 at 12:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
No, I actually thought that I was pretty clear with my comparison to Finland's Winter War with the USSR. A negotiated end to the war would be more complicated for Ukraine than "winning" or "losing "
Since you brought up Finland, I want to point out how fast they got into NATO. They obviously felt they could be next.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 3:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The GMLRS rockets that Ukraine is firing at Russia are old tech. It's why we developed the PrSM.
Also, don't believe everything you read.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/6/24 at 8:08 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update oct 6th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five divisions’ worth of armored vehicles and tanks in Pokrovsk Raion since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in Summer 2024.
The Russian military command may not be willing or able to accept the current scale and rate of vehicle loss in the coming months and years given the constraints in Russia's defense industrial production, limits to Russia’s Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, and the Russian military's failure to achieve operationally significant territorial advances through mechanized maneuver.
Ukrainian officials continue to document and prosecute Russian war crimes committed against Ukrainian forces.
Russian authorities reportedly arrested the administrator of the Russian Telegram channel Thirteenth, who has previously criticized the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), on October 5.
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:14 pm to Lima Whiskey
The Atlantic is more like a Bunk Moreland far leftist source.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 5:58 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 October 2024
The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reached a new monthly war high during September 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,271 per day compared to the previous monthly war high of 1,262 recorded in May 2024, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties.
The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline. Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilising mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains.
Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter. To date winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction of offensive operations or attrition rates due to Russia's reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of manoeuvre warfare, which requires better conditions.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 07 October 2024
The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine reached a new monthly war high during September 2024. The average daily loss rate was 1,271 per day compared to the previous monthly war high of 1,262 recorded in May 2024, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 648,000 casualties.
The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline. Russian forces highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilising mass to overwhelm defensive positions and achieve tactical gains.
Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day for the rest of 2024 despite the onset of winter. To date winter conditions have not resulted in a reduction of offensive operations or attrition rates due to Russia's reliance on dismounted tactics and a lack of manoeuvre warfare, which requires better conditions.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 6:09 am to cypher
The main building of Putin's residence in Sochi was demolished.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/7/24 at 6:15 am to cypher
Ukraine's General Staff confirms strike on Russian oil depot in Crimea
STANISLAV POHORILOV — Monday, 7 October 2024, 08:38
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reported that Ukraine’s defence forces successfully struck a Russian marine oil terminal in the city of Feodosiia in temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 6-7 October.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Quote: "A successful strike was conducted on the enemy's marine oil terminal located in temporarily occupied Feodosiia, Crimea, last night. A fire has been detected in the vicinity of the facility. The consequences of the strike are being established."
Details: The General Staff reiterated that the Feodosiia terminal is the largest in Crimea in terms of oil product transshipment volumes, which were used to supply the needs of the Russian army.
Ukrainska Pravda
STANISLAV POHORILOV — Monday, 7 October 2024, 08:38
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has reported that Ukraine’s defence forces successfully struck a Russian marine oil terminal in the city of Feodosiia in temporarily occupied Crimea on the night of 6-7 October.
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Quote: "A successful strike was conducted on the enemy's marine oil terminal located in temporarily occupied Feodosiia, Crimea, last night. A fire has been detected in the vicinity of the facility. The consequences of the strike are being established."
Details: The General Staff reiterated that the Feodosiia terminal is the largest in Crimea in terms of oil product transshipment volumes, which were used to supply the needs of the Russian army.
Ukrainska Pravda
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