re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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If a plant makes 100 transformers a year, and the demand climbs to 125 transformers a year, several things can happen in our capitalist system. The plant raises their price and sells to the highest bidder. The plant raises their price and puts on another shift or adds a production line. The plant sees more competition from other plants. What doesn’t happen is the plant or plants do not turn down business because there might be a devastating hurricane event in the future.

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Scenario 1 can occur in the scenario I laid out

Scenario 2 in certain industries doesn’t matter because there is literally only so many that could feasibly be manufactured in a year because of sourcing related issues, and the plants are likely already manufacturing these things specifically as fast as they can.


Scenario 3 is possible, I’d be happy to see some evidence.

I’m not even saying I’m 100% sure the shortage in NC is related to Ukraine. But is it possible? Absolutely. And if it actually is, that’s a shame.

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I heard a rumor that bodies were dropping from trees and killing linemen repairing damage. I guess that makes it true.

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I literally called the transformer thing a rumor in my first post mentioning it

I think it’s possible, sure.

The Kyiv Independent can report “Putin has Super AIDS” and you’re all “hmmm quite possible” but if someone is like “maybe this thing that isn’t exactly flattering to the Ukraine war effort happened” the Ukraine First crowd has to jump on top of it to keep the narrative going.

Despicable people, truly.

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Simplistic at best

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That’s going to be the title of CitizenK’s autobiography.

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Now would it help if the transformers sent to Ukraine could have been bought by the government months or a year ago and kept in reserve because there might be a hurricane and instead of being delivered to Ukraine we could use them here.

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There is no transformer reserve and Just in Time Delivery business model means no warehouses full for the last 30+ years.

We wouldn't have any stored transformers for Ukraine anyway, different voltages. You cannot even use substation transformers on the West Coast anywhere east of the Rockies unless tap changers able to correct incoming voltage.

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Since there was a shortage two years ago the logic answer is no.

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Gee, I wonder what else was going on two years ago when there was a shortage?

You would think a country that gets hit with multi-billion dollar hurricanes semi-regularly and big tornado outbreaks pretty much yearly would think to plan better for what might happen when a shortage already existed and many parts and materials are interchangeable.

And knowing all this, we still purchased some for Ukraine anyway.

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You would think a country that gets hit with multi-billion dollar hurricanes semi-regularly and big tornado outbreaks pretty much yearly would think to plan better for what might happen when a shortage already existed and many parts and materials are interchangeable.

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Haven’t you learned by now government can’t deliver the mail, it isn’t our savior. It’s even worse when you get a Biden in charge.

But we are way off topic.

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You certainly seem to want it to save Ukraine

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I want the US to help Ukraine. Ukraine will have to save themselves.

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GDP is pretty useless

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The UKucks are floundering because there’s a gradual shift from relative stalemate to Russian advantage occurring. They’ve already set themselves up for when the agreed upon “peace” happens they have a built in excuse for why Ukraine didn’t win: Trump and Vance are compromised by Russia, or the Biden/Harris Dem cabal is just so incompetent that they lost it for Ukraine

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I'm not really sure that I understand this. There's been zero chance for peace, because Russia has insisted that it will take all of the Donbas.

There has absolutely not been a "gradual shift." Russia has had the military advantage from the beginning, and the only change happened when NATO gave Ukraine massive amounts of ammo and armor for the 2023 Ukrainian offensive. The failure of that offensive made further Russian gains inevitable.

But peace may be on the horizon. One reason is that Russia has emptied its storage of artillery pieces, and their storage of armored vehicles will start running dry in a few months. On the financial front, Russia continues to deplete its sovereign reserves, though rising gold prices have mitigated the decline.

Polls in both Russia and Ukraine have shown greater percentages of the population looking for peace.

The way that a peace deal would likely work would be that a ceasefire largely along existing lines would be implemented. Russia would certainly have to withdraw from some areas in order to get US and EU sanctions lifted. Ukraine would not relinquish its claims to Russian-occupied territory, but it would agree not to pursue taking back its territory from Russia through military means.

Although nations such as Hungary, Turkey, and Slovakia would likely block Ukraine from joining NATO, a "coalition of the willing" that would include most NATO members would give Ukraine something like an Article V guarantee for the ceasefire lines, ensuring that Russia would not cross them in any new attacks. The US and NATO partners would then give Ukraine more advanced weaponry to further deter any future Russian attacks. Ukraine joining the EU would ensure the country's financial recovery.

Would that represent a "defeat" for Ukraine? In some ways, for sure. In other ways, though, Ukraine emerging from the war as a free and independent nation (and EU member) with stronger security than it's ever had, would be a win.

Did the Finns lose the Winter War against the USSR? Yeah, kinda, because they permanently lost Karelia. But they also won it by exacting a much, much higher price on the Soviets than anyone expected, which set them up for success in the long run.

There's no doubt that this war already represents a strategic defeat for Russia. NATO is much, much stronger now than it was a few years ago. Yes, Finland and Sweden have joined, but the bigger deal is that 23 members will hit the 2% spending target this year, up from 4 in 2018. The Polish army will soon be a match for Russia's.

The Ukraine that emerges from this war will be far stronger than the country that existed pre-2022, and that is a strategic problem for Russia.

Russia has made itself a financial vassal of China. It's economy will be wrecked for years. Russia has destroyed itself demographically.