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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/3/24 at 1:39 pm to Auburn1968
Posted on 9/3/24 at 1:39 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
I get the sense that Putin has a wolf by the ears and can't let go without getting badly bitten.
You would think he would be publicly open to peace and really pushing the idea if this were the case. "I am calling for peace and the west won't allow it to happen". If he has a wolf by the ears his situation will only get worse.
1
Posted on 9/3/24 at 1:56 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
You would think he would be publicly open to peace and really pushing the idea if this were the case. "I am calling for peace and the west won't allow it to happen
The wolf he will get bit by from letting go is internal. He cannot let go of Ukraine without getting fricked at home.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 2:05 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
He cannot let go of Ukraine without getting fricked at home.
That's certainly a possibility. But the people with power to frick him are still comfortable even now. Maybe if the west gives them assurances that their bank accounts will be unfrozen, assets returned, etc etc someone might get froggy enough to try something.
He is also old. I doubt the idea has escaped him that if things go poorly for him in Ukraine (like "I'm going to get assassinated" poorly, so even worse than they actually have been so far) he can just dip out and give the fallout to someone else. That's likely a reason he tried this in the first place.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 3:27 pm to Hateradedrink
The other shoe to drop is the war effort is keeping the economy going. It's shoveling cash into a furnace, but it staves off the inevitable recession/depression, at the cost of making it worse when it does occur.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 3:34 pm to doubleb
quote:
You chided me for using historical events to make a point. You like to ignore the past as if each new event is unique.
I remember learning about the Nazis. At first they took Austria without opposition. Then the west gave them Czecheoslovokia even though they had dug in and were ready to fight. Finally when the Nazis took Poland France and England acted.
Putin attacked Georgia and the west watched. Then he took Crimea and entered Donbas. There was little done although Obama sent blankets. Feb of 22 and Putin blows in to take Ukraine. Finally the West replied in a significant way.
Do you see the pattern?
Just to point out, Russia began militarily attacking its former satellite states who were getting too uppity and not bending the knee in 1991, immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union and a small period to adjust... it starts before Putin... loveable "good guy" Yeltsin was doing the same thing. Still, he was "slightly" less brutal (he didn't like to employ missiles fired at civilians). The world was so invested in him being the great Capitalist and Democratic reformer of Russia that they kind of ignored it. So Putin stepped in and escalated the ruthless and brutality aspect, being a former KGB thug.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 3:46 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
quote:
Kursk panic: War correspondent Roman Saponkov reports that after rumors circulated about Ukrainians breaking through to the Lgov-Kursk highway last night, local "self-defense" forces—armed civilians—opened friendly fire, nearly killing Russian soldiers. He says it's not the first time it happened.
There's more to this story now.
A Russian serviceman shared on Telegram about his interactions with the Kursk territorial defense. He described the situation as complete chaos, with the territorial defense forces more likely to harm each other than the Ukrainians.
Some members are in a constant state of paralysing panic, imagining Ukrainians everywhere and growing suspicious of their fellow Russians.
I thought the Ukrainian civilian armed response to the Russian invasion was... remarkably "disciplined." This is more like what usually happens if the "invaders" are not someone completely different in appearance and easily identified.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 3:49 pm to Lee B
I surmise the Ukrainian response was at least somewhat planned out in advance. Something Russia is loathe to do because they don't want to do anything that might be turned against the ruling junta.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 4:13 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
BBC did a story on visiting secret army training centers for ukraine. Very professionally done but the reporter said one thing struck him.......most of the new soldiers being trained were in their 40s and 50s.
Ukraine is preserving its young males so that there is a Ukraine in the future. We've been over this several times, here...
The question is, are Ukrainians in their 40s and 50s in better physical shape than Russians in their 40s and 50s? or 30s?
Posted on 9/3/24 at 4:22 pm to Lee B
quote:
I thought the Ukrainian civilian armed response to the Russian invasion was... remarkably "disciplined." This is more like what usually happens if the "invaders" are not someone completely different in appearance and easily identified.
The realities of not having a free market for thought. With a central government dictating everything people become like a herd of sheep. While some holler about Sheeple in the US, the reality is that Sheeple are what (intentional) live in places like Russia and China. They wait for orders from the top and have little experience in making command decisions at the point of need
This post was edited on 9/3/24 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 9/3/24 at 5:32 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Based on these reports, Putin did not expect to encounter resistance in Ukraine and did not know the real state of his army. He probably does not know the real state of his nuclear forces either.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 6:35 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Reports on Pokrovsk seem less negative/frequent lately, which seems like it might be a good sign?
They were evacuating civilians 2 days ago.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 6:51 pm to CitizenK
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Ukrainian sources have acknowledged that their troops were pushed out of Prechystivka (west of Vuhledar) and reported on the advance of Russian forces in the Vodyane area (northeast of Vuhledar). The situation for the Ukrainian forces around Vuhledar is worsening rapidly as their remaining access points to the city are being cut off. A small (3km) Russian advance to the west and north of Vuhledar could encircle the Ukrainian troops still holding the line in the city. There is a high chance that Ukraine will or has already begun a withdrawal from Vuhledar.
LINK
quote:
Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 922:
Situation on Toretsk front: #RussianArmy captured new areas in Druzhba (news about the completely capture of the locality by Russian forces are not true).
Situation northwest of Donetsk city: #RussianArmy entered in the localities of Lisivka & Zhelanne Pershe. Due to the proximity of the Russian troops to the last supply line to the western front of Donetsk city #UkrainianArmy began the withdrawal to the west which allowed the Russian forces to take control of a significant area of the front, which includes the last section of the 2014 defense line as well as the settlement of Nevelske
Situation southwest of Donetsk: #RussianArmy made new advances towards Vodyane reaching the southern outskirts of the locality. Moreover, Russian forces took full control over Prechystivka.
Situation on Zaporizhia front: During the last five days #RussianArmy took control over new positions northeast of Robotyne leveling in this way the frontline there
LINK
quote:
The situation around Pokrovsk is still unstable, but Russian advances are slowing down. Since it's far from over, the Russians will likely focus on expanding their flanks before trying to launch an assault on Pokrovsk itself
LINK
quote:
Great Britain has signed a contract for the purchase of 152-mm ammunition for Ukraine in the amount of $393 million, reports the Department of Defense of Great Britain.
By the end of the year, 120,000 shells will arrive, which will significantly replenish Ukrainian stocks.
In addition, eight countries joined Great Britain in providing more than $1.3 billion to the International Fund for Ukraine.
LINK
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:57 pm to StormyMcMan
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Jomini is back!
Those of you who have followed this war from the beginning know that Jomini was probably the single most thorough Twitter source on the war for many months. Then he went away for 18 months or so.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:15 pm to GOP_Tiger
He always had the best maps, glad to see him active again.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:15 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update Sept 3rd
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure and a military educational facility in Poltava City with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, killing and wounding a significant number of people, as part of a wider strike series on the night of September 2 to 3.
The wider impacts of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast on the war and any envisioned diplomatic solution to the war are not yet clear, and assessments of these impacts are premature.
Attempts to assess the impacts of the Ukrainian incursion at this premature stage will likely come to partial and inaccurate conclusions about Ukraine's ability to change the trajectory of the conflict and the Kremlin's appetite for peace negotiations on acceptable terms.
Reuters reported that the US is considering providing Ukraine with long range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs) but that Ukraine would not receive the missiles for months.
Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded his trip to Mongolia by signing agreements that strengthen bilateral economic ties and trilateral energy relations between Russia, Mongolia and the People's Republic of China (PRC).
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping issued a joint statement praising each other’s purported efforts to address the war Ukraine.
Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk and southwest of Donetsk City.
Russian occupation authorities continue to advertise Russian military service to civilians in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:02 am to Chromdome35
quote:LINK
Today the Russian Central Grouping of Forces is just six miles from the next major prize on the Avdiivka axis: the city of Pokrovsk, which sits astride important Ukrainian supply lines for the whole eastern front.
But the 11-month, 25-mile advance has come at enormous cost to the Russian military. Exactly how enormous, we don’t know for sure. But there’s evidence that, this weekend, the Russians experienced the costliest 24 hours of their 30-month wider war on Ukraine.
On Sunday, analyst Andrew Perpetua tallied more than 180 damaged, destroyed and abandoned Russian vehicles and heavy weapons. Ukraine’s own losses were much lighter: fewer than three dozen.
To put that into perspective, on average across the approximately 920 days of its wider war on Ukraine, Russia has lost just 19 pieces of heavy weaponry. All that is to say, the Russians’ single-day record loss this weekend was nearly 10 times worse than average.
I have not seen this report elsewhere so it could be fake news. However if it is true then Russia had a worse weekend than LSU and FSU fans did.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 4:41 am to WeeWee
It doesn't mean that all those Russian vehicles were destroyed this weekend. Rather, it means that they were documented this weekend.
For example, Madyar released a big video of his guys droning to death a large number of Russian vehicles. Madyar does this every few weeks or so, and any day he releases a video is going to result in a large number of new Russian losses documented that day -- but the kills on Madyar's video happened over a few weeks.
But yes, Andrew's count from Sunday includes 31 artillery pieces, 22 tanks, and 25 IFVs. LINK
For example, Madyar released a big video of his guys droning to death a large number of Russian vehicles. Madyar does this every few weeks or so, and any day he releases a video is going to result in a large number of new Russian losses documented that day -- but the kills on Madyar's video happened over a few weeks.
But yes, Andrew's count from Sunday includes 31 artillery pieces, 22 tanks, and 25 IFVs. LINK
This post was edited on 9/4/24 at 4:48 am
Posted on 9/4/24 at 7:23 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 9/4/24 at 7:25 am to Lee B
quote:
Ukraine is preserving its young males so that there is a Ukraine in the future. We've been over this several times, here...
Ehhh Im doubting that
Posted on 9/4/24 at 7:47 am to Lee B
quote:
He probably does not know the real state of his nuclear forces either.
The casualness with which posters here are fine with seemingly infinite escalation because Russia *probably* overestimates its nuclear capabilities is really baffling
And before the lazy "giving in to bullies" takes start flying, I actually think we should have given Ukraine our best equipment from the start and made it very clear publicly that "its their stuff now, they do what they want with it" and take a more hands off approach than we've had. My problem with the current approach is that we are at least seemingly very involved in supporting the war effort via advisory, intelligence, etc AND we are gradually escalating further in terms of what we allow with our weapons. If you just give them the stuff from the start with the caveat " don't commit war crimes", and then wash your hands of it publicly I view that as less escalatory than the current approach. Russia doesn't have these "the US is letting Ukraine strike inside Russia!" headlines (aka recruitment boosts that they had briefly after things like the Crimea incident and Kursk operation) if you do it the way I described.
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