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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/4/24 at 7:48 am to DavidTheGnome
Posted on 9/4/24 at 7:48 am to DavidTheGnome
quote:
Ukraine is preserving its young males so that there is a Ukraine in the future
I think it's more like: preserving its young males as a force reserve.
The "West" and Ukraine have together done a pretty good job of matching Russian escalations in this war.
When Russia does X, we counter with Y. It hasn't been enough to let Ukraine win. But it has been enough to keep Russia from winning. And I'm beginning to think that's according to plan.
Ukraine has 2-3 million men between 18 and 25 who haven't been called up. But the infrastructure to train them in the specialties they need is being built out. If Russia adds another 500k troops to this nightmare, then Ukraine can match them. Maybe not man for man, but they will have the assets to counter the Russian threat.
1
Posted on 9/4/24 at 8:10 am to No Colors
Lviv Mayor Confirms Family Killed in Russian Strike, Including Three Daughters
Russian attack on Ukraine's western city of Lviv killed seven people, including three children, and wounded at least 47 others, the region's governor said Wednesday.
by Kyiv Post | September 4, 2024, 8:46 am
Russian attack on Ukraine's western city of Lviv killed seven people, including 3 children, and wounded at least 47 others, the region's governor said Wednesday, Sept. 4.
The attack comes a day after missiles hit the central city of Poltava in one of the single deadliest bombardments of Russia's invasion, which has stretched into its third year.
"We have already lost seven people due to the invaders tonight, including three children. It's a terrible tragedy," the region's governor, Maksym Kozytskyi, wrote on Telegram, extending his "condolences to the families of those we lost tonight."
According to city mayor Andriy Sadovyi, three siblings and their mother are among the victims of the strike.
"After today's attack, only one man remains alive from this photo. Evgeny's wife and their three daughters—Yarina, Daria, and Emilia—were killed in their own home. Yarina Bazilevich, who was 21 years old, worked in our office, "Lviv — Youth Capital of Europe 2025," Sadovyi wrote on Telegram.
The Kyiv Post
Russian attack on Ukraine's western city of Lviv killed seven people, including three children, and wounded at least 47 others, the region's governor said Wednesday.
by Kyiv Post | September 4, 2024, 8:46 am
Russian attack on Ukraine's western city of Lviv killed seven people, including 3 children, and wounded at least 47 others, the region's governor said Wednesday, Sept. 4.
The attack comes a day after missiles hit the central city of Poltava in one of the single deadliest bombardments of Russia's invasion, which has stretched into its third year.
"We have already lost seven people due to the invaders tonight, including three children. It's a terrible tragedy," the region's governor, Maksym Kozytskyi, wrote on Telegram, extending his "condolences to the families of those we lost tonight."
According to city mayor Andriy Sadovyi, three siblings and their mother are among the victims of the strike.
"After today's attack, only one man remains alive from this photo. Evgeny's wife and their three daughters—Yarina, Daria, and Emilia—were killed in their own home. Yarina Bazilevich, who was 21 years old, worked in our office, "Lviv — Youth Capital of Europe 2025," Sadovyi wrote on Telegram.
The Kyiv Post
Posted on 9/4/24 at 8:32 am to VolSquatch
You make some legitimate points, but what none of us know is what’s going on behind the scenes.
And like you I think we should have come out more vociferously in 2014. Obama pussy footed around then.
I think we need to be careful, but Russia needs to know that if they fire from across the border at Ukraine they should expect return fire.
And like you I think we should have come out more vociferously in 2014. Obama pussy footed around then.
I think we need to be careful, but Russia needs to know that if they fire from across the border at Ukraine they should expect return fire.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 8:35 am to doubleb
quote:
You make some legitimate points, but what none of us know is what’s going on behind the scenes.
That could be said of anything when discussing the conflict though. There is information we don't have and won't until its over one way or another, if we even have it then.
quote:
I think we need to be careful, but Russia needs to know that if they fire from across the border at Ukraine they should expect return fire.
Definitely agree. I just think some posters are too dismissive of the nuclear issue and its too important to act so carelessly toward it.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 9:05 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Definitely agree. I just think some posters are too dismissive of the nuclear issue and its too important to act so carelessly toward it.
European nations no longer fall for that bluff. Russians now understand this.
FTR, Russia fell for our ruse back in the 1980's with nuclear reduction, when they agreed to keep their ballistic missiles mostly liquid (hydrogen) fueled and only a central chilling location for recharging the Liquid Hydrogen. Even in cryogenic tanks it begins to boil off in a week. It is not easy to keep the temperature at less than MINUS 400 degree F. It doesn't stay liquid for extended periods of time. Solid fuel lasts longer but still has to be replaced, The US had already moved to all solid fuel back then.
While Russia has newer missiles which are solid fuel, it still has a lot of old liquid fueled missiles. Even China's nuke program is more advanced with less than 5% liquid fueled. The hubub recently about how China discovered the corruption of water being in their missiles instead of hydrogen? We should know that Russia not even maintaining tires on military equipment also extends to its nuke program, fricking cheap arse tires (compared to other maintenance expenses)
Posted on 9/4/24 at 9:48 am to CitizenK
quote:
We should know that Russia not even maintaining tires on military equipment also extends to its nuke program, fricking cheap arse tires (compared to other maintenance expenses)
I really don't think that this is true. Of course, there's corruption everywhere in Russia, but they spend lots on their nuclear program, and I bet that most of their nukes work.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 10:18 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I really don't think that this is true. Of course, there's corruption everywhere in Russia, but they spend lots on their nuclear program, and I bet that most of their nukes work.
umm we looked at their published budget before in this thread and know the cost of upkeep....very clear they prolly have less than 2 dozen working nukes.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 10:40 am to CitizenK
quote:
European nations no longer fall for that bluff. Russians now understand this.
FTR, Russia fell for our ruse back in the 1980's with nuclear reduction, when they agreed to keep their ballistic missiles mostly liquid (hydrogen) fueled and only a central chilling location for recharging the Liquid Hydrogen. Even in cryogenic tanks it begins to boil off in a week. It is not easy to keep the temperature at less than MINUS 400 degree F. It doesn't stay liquid for extended periods of time. Solid fuel lasts longer but still has to be replaced, The US had already moved to all solid fuel back then.
While Russia has newer missiles which are solid fuel, it still has a lot of old liquid fueled missiles. Even China's nuke program is more advanced with less than 5% liquid fueled. The hubub recently about how China discovered the corruption of water being in their missiles instead of hydrogen? We should know that Russia not even maintaining tires on military equipment also extends to its nuke program, fricking cheap arse tires (compared to other maintenance expenses)
It was not a bluff on Reagan's part... unbelievably, he'd always believed a contemporary nuclear exchange would just be like Hiroshima and Nagasaki... life would go on unchanged beyond just certain sites. The TV movie "The Next Day" terrified him in its depiction of a nuclear armageddon, and he would've agreed to completely abandon nukes if the Pentagon had not convinced him that would lead to the USSR attacking with conventional forces and winning due to its numbers and hive-mentality of its subjects.
On the Russian side, after the wall fell Soviet officials said they had been relieved to reduce nukes just because they could not afford to keep up (and were faking a big chunk of their arsenal, anyway).
The Chinese thing with their missiles in nuke silos being filled with water instead of fuel... but a report I watched was trying to find out what Xi was doing with that story being reported... because it doesn't matter what was in the tanks of those missiles because the latches were never operational... they were not actually built to be operable... it was all a ruse for satellites, so there's probably not even missiles in the silos, therefore there's not water in the tanks of the missiles that don't exist.
This post was edited on 9/4/24 at 10:45 am
Posted on 9/4/24 at 10:42 am to lsu777
quote:
very clear they prolly have less than 2 dozen working nukes.
probably more than enough to end the world as we know it depending on the yield.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 11:12 am to lsu777
Thats a gross under estimation of their capabilities.
If just 10% of their nukes are functional, that's still plenty to get the job done.
A quick search says they have roughly 6000 nukes. 10% would be 600.
If just 10% of their nukes are functional, that's still plenty to get the job done.
A quick search says they have roughly 6000 nukes. 10% would be 600.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 11:19 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Thats a gross under estimation of their capabilities.
If just 10% of their nukes are functional, that's still plenty to get the job done.
A quick search says they have roughly 6000 nukes. 10% would be 600.
Guesswork is what got Russia into a going on 3 year long war that they thought would take 2 weeks and they were WAY more informed on Ukraine's capabilities than anyone here is on Russia's nuclear capabilities.
The continued insistence that Russia's nuclear arsenal is overstated is just a crutch for bad arguments in favor of Ukrainian interests. You can't operate based on "could be's" when it comes to nukes. You have to be sure.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:01 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Thats a gross under estimation of their capabilities.
If just 10% of their nukes are functional, that's still plenty to get the job done.
A quick search says they have roughly 6000 nukes. 10% would be 600.
they dont have the budget to come close to have 500+ working nukes. not even remotely close
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:09 pm to lsu777
Their nuclear arsenal is more modern than ours.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:35 pm to lsu777
The other thing is they would be a pariah nation even to China and likely Iran. if they even used a tactical nuke on the battlefield which would only be worth using on a large concentration on UKR forces.
Russia's own pundits are saying that nukes are no longer the threat they used to be.
Now if you are OMLandshark that's different story. and his soy boy like views. He screamed that Putin was going to NUKE the US every chance he got in 2022.
Russia's own pundits are saying that nukes are no longer the threat they used to be.
Now if you are OMLandshark that's different story. and his soy boy like views. He screamed that Putin was going to NUKE the US every chance he got in 2022.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:45 pm to CitizenK
probably not Iran, actually...
But China does not want to militarily challenge the West. China needs the West to have an economy.
But China does not want to militarily challenge the West. China needs the West to have an economy.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:55 pm to Lee B
quote:
probably not Iran, actually...
Iran doesn't want the sanctions imposed globally on them.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:58 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Their nuclear arsenal is more modern than ours.
As mighty and modern as the T-14 Armata tank or their Black Sea flagship Moskva? Only the traditional cry babies fear such.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 1:10 pm to CitizenK
quote:
The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Is Dangerously Old
quote:
Missing from the sorry list of American military shortfalls in your editorial “U.S. Defense After Ukraine” (March 8) is perhaps the most worrisome of all: Our continuing inability to fund the long-overdue modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Endlessly entangled in arguments over cost—it grows more expensive the longer we wait—and progressive politicians’ disdain for nuclear weapons, the American land-based ICBM force is at or near the end of its life.
LINK
quote:
Top Generals Warn The US Nuclear Arsenal Is Dangerously Outdated
quote:
Selva warned that while Russia is modernizing its nuclear force, the U.S. continues to extend the lifespan of aging nuclear weapons “in many cases for decades beyond what was originally intended.” He added that the U.S. has come to a point where it must “concurrently modernize the entire nuclear triad.”
Wilson, the vice chief of staff of the Air Force, offered a bleak outlook on the future of U.S. nuclear deterrence, noting “the stark choice the U.S. faces today is not between modernizing these systems or continued life extension programs … the choice is between modernization or losing these foundational capabilities starting in as as early as the late-2020s.”
LINK
Posted on 9/4/24 at 1:18 pm to Lima Whiskey
So the MIC is lying only sometimes when it constantly exaggerates and begs for more money?
Just to trying to keep up...
Just to trying to keep up...
Posted on 9/4/24 at 1:26 pm to Lee B
There's a lot of decay in most (all?) sectors of the defence industry, and it's mirrored in the active duty force. We rely on old equipment, and we struggle to develop and field replacements. We've got problems.
This post was edited on 9/4/24 at 2:28 pm
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