re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures

AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins

This war has left Russia's borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system's instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk.

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So many pro-Russia types just completely ignored how generally dysfunctional the Russian military is. The beginning of the war in 2022 was absolute chaos. They gradually systematized certain things and got better at what one commenter has called "war by spreadsheet," the grinding war of simple mechanical calculations.

But when it comes to open maneuver, combined arms warfare, they stink. And then you factor in that what was in Kursk was a bunch of half-trained conscripts equipped with the leftover junk that wasn't as needed on the "real" front lines, and you can see what Syrskyi saw what the opportunity was.

Those forces have largely been crushed or surrendered, which has just left more holes and more problems for the f'ed-up Russian command structure. Putting the FSB in charge of the Kursk defense is just nuts.

What Syrskyi also realized was that he had more men in that area than the Russians did, so pushing forward and expanding the salient only spread out the limited Russian presence even further. The bigger that Ukraine makes the salient, the larger the frontline is in that area and the harder it is for Russia to get enough men in place to defend it.

This is where the advantage of shorter, internal lines really comes in to play. It's much faster for Syrskyi to redeploy men and equipment from other sectors of the front to the Kursk area than it is for Russia to do so, because the Russians have to go a much longer route. Syrskyi can set up new logistics lines, comms, etc. much faster than the Russians can, both because he prepared for it in the operational planning, but just also because of the shorter distances and less complicated internal logistics.

Two days ago, I said that I thought that the "big" phase of Ukraine's push was over, and that we'd see much more limited gains, slowing to nothing in the next week or so.

It's been very much the opposite. Ukrainian gains are accelerating. Ukraine's own logistical issues will prevent them from pushing too much deeper inside Russia, but I now think that they will continue to expand the salient both east and west over the next few days. I don't think that they're close to done yet.

Kursk offensive: Sudzha gas metering station is no more. It was the only gas Russian pipeline supplying gas to Europe. Nearly 50% of all Russian gas exports to the European Union flow through this station. It is the only operational Russian gas pipeline supplying the European market.

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Kursk offensive: Sudzha gas metering station is no more. It was the only gas Russian pipeline supplying gas to Europe.

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Lima Whiskey and Sir Winston are probably on suicide watch right about meow.

ISW Update Aug 12th

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Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray himself as an effective and knowledgeable manager of the situation along the Ukrainian-Russian border and to shift responsibility for ongoing challenges in responding to the Ukrainian incursion in the area to other Russian military and government officials.

The Kremlin's decision to publish footage showing Putin chastising senior Russian officials is likely a warning to other Russian officials to refrain from commenting about the Ukrainian incursion into Russia.

Putin delegated overlapping tasks to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Federal Security Service (FSB), and Rosgvardia in the Ukrainian-Russian border area — further highlighting how the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast is struggling to establish the joint command and control (C2) structures necessary to coordinate operations.

Putin offered several assessments about Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast, including one that undermined a long-standing Kremlin information operation falsely portraying Ukraine as unwilling to engage in legitimate, good-faith negotiations and putting the onus for peace negotiations on Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces appear to be advancing further within Kursk Oblast despite recent milblogger claims that Russian forces were stabilizing the frontline in Kursk Oblast.

Regional Russian officials appear to be offering notably frank assessments of the ongoing Ukrainian incursion.

Senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and warned that Russian forces may stage war crimes in Kursk Oblast in order to discredit Ukraine and Western support for Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a drone strike against a Russian airbase in Moscow Oblast on the night of August 11 to 12.

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) emphasized Russia's international defense ties at the Army-2024 International Military-Technical Forum in Moscow, likely in an effort to expand international military-technical cooperation and posture strong defense relations with Russia-friendly states.

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It was the only gas Russian pipeline supplying gas to Europe.

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I call bullshite. There are others unless Gazprom has allowed them to lapse into disrepair. Yamal-Europe is also used and goes nowhere near this metering station. Soyuz is also there but mothballed after 2014 Russian invasion.

Orban won't get his cut from Putin is likely the best end result.

Don't tell me they are still negotiating over this.

'How Can I Negotiate With a Regime That Attacks Civilians?' - Putin Asks With No Hint of Irony

Speaking at the latest meeting on the Kursk situation Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine’s intention was to strengthen its future negotiating position.

by Kyiv Post | August 13, 2024, 8:58 am

With no notice of irony, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) counter invasion objective was meant to strengthen Kyiv’s position in any future negotiations – talks he said would make no sense with a government that attacks civilians.

The Russian state news agency TASS reported Putin’s opening statement at a meeting of Russia’s Security Council on Monday, Aug. 12 to discuss the situation on the Russian border and the incursion into the Kursk region. He said that what he termed as Ukraine’s armed provocation was aimed to bolster Kyiv’s position for future talks. He then went on to say that talks with a government that attacks civilians make no sense – overlooking the strategy he has employed for the last two and a half years.

The Kyiv Post

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This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures

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Lots of rumors about which Army General(s) will be thrown under the Lubyanka first. My money is on Gerasimov...

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The Kremlin imposes "anti-terror" measures in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod. This means that FSB takes over these regions & we can expect some false flag operations in the near future. It's worth noting, that FSB has never been afraid of killing Russian civilians in the operations.

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LINK

So we should be prepared for stories with photos of Ukrainian forces slaughtering hundereds of Russian civilians soon. The Buynaksk / Volgodonsk bombings are still very much in the FSB playbook.

LINK

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Kursk offensive: Sudzha gas metering station is no more.

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Tiny bang for a line that is full of natural gas being pushed from the compressor station deeper in Russia. Such a fire would be seen for days.

BTW, there are also compressor stations for each of the lines (more than this) in Ukraine to get it through to the other side.