re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Ukrainians advancing deep into Russia, dead and retreating Russians everywhere and a confused White House hit with some UKR shock and awe. frick, this is going to be a great weekend.

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Sorry for the slight threadjack; this quote immediately reminded me of this scene:

For the sake of completeness, it's worth considering the negative perspective of Ukrainian analyst Tatarigami, who seriously dislikes Syrskyi:

LINK

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But is Ukraine’s Kursk incursion worth the effort?

That being said, amid the optimism and positivity, it’s important to remain critical and assess the situation soberly. As the summer 2023 offensive demonstrated, euphoria can quickly turn into a hangover.

While Ukrainian forces are encountering seemingly weak resistance as they advance, their logistical lines are inevitably lengthening. To address this, Ukraine will need to widen the incursion, which could slow the pace of its advance due to limited resources and available brigades.

Overextension poses risks beyond logistics – it also complicates the ability to provide adequate air defense coverage for advancing troops.

This leaves Ukraine with a difficult choice: either reposition its scarce and valuable air defense assets into Kursk or leave its advancing forces without proper cover.

As Russia eventually assembles a large enough force to counter Ukrainian advances, the Ukrainian command will face a tough dilemma: to halt and dig in or to retreat back to Ukraine.

In the first scenario, it’s unclear how extended frontlines and unprepared positions with stretched logistics would be more favorable than the more established positions in Donbas. If Ukrainian troops choose to withdraw, it raises the question of whether the operation was worth the effort, especially given the need to redeploy elements from several brigades in Donbas for this incursion.

Meanwhile, in Donbas, Russian forces continue to advance toward Pokrovsk and have made progress in the Toretsk area over the past week.

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So far, there is no evidence that Russia is moving its main units from Donetsk Oblast to Kursk, casting doubt on the theory that this incursion could relieve pressure on Donetsk. That being said, it may be too early to draw conclusions, as such movements could occur in the future.

However, as of today, there is no public information or indication that Russia has shifted its main forces or decreased pressure in the Pokrovsk direction.

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I have several thoughts about this:

About his final point, I do think that Russia has enough reserves that they will not need to redeploy significant troops from the Avdiivka - Pokrovsk axis, but I also think that, with respect to the Kursk invasion, the Russian command hasn't yet figured out which end is up

With respect to his other point (it's no easier to hold territory in Kursk than in the Donbas), I think he ignores the profound political reality that Russia absolutely cannot "freeze" a conflict in which Ukraine holds some of its territory -- the Russian people would never accept that. It's a huge bargaining chip.

Tatarigami also ignores the massive potential impact of the Kursk success on the American political process. The American public likes a winner, and this operation shows that Ukraine can still take the initiative and capture large amounts of territory. That's extremely important in the light of our upcoming elections.

To his credit, Tatarigami does mention some other benefits of the op:

1) Improved morale
2) POWs to exchange
3) The crossing of another of Putin's "red lines" without consequence

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Tatarigami also ignores the massive potential impact of the Kursk success on the American political process. The American public likes a winner, and this operation shows that Ukraine can still take the initiative and capture large amounts of territory. That's extremely important in the light of our upcoming elections

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People have largely made their minds up on this. Your average American voter doesn't know its even happening or doesn't care.

The Post reports on the consternation in Moscow: LINK. I added some comments.

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A leading member of the Russian parliament, Andrey Gurulyov, who is a former deputy commander for Russia’s southern military district, condemned the botched response to the incursion. Posting on the Telegram messaging platform, Gurulyov called for the military prosecutor to investigate decisions by commanders to transfer defense forces from the Kursk region ahead of the attack.

Questions were also being raised about the failure to act on what Gurulyov said were intelligence reports of Ukrainian armed forces preparing to attack the region 48 hours before the assault began.

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political analyst, said there were obvious failures.

“This is a blow because it is clear that the signal came from intelligence to the leadership but … measures were not taken,” Markov said. “This is a failure of the entire system of intelligence, and since Putin is responsible for this then its clear this is a blow to Putin.”

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Yes, they should definitely conduct a public inquiry and put Gerasimov on trial.

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A Russian academic close to senior Moscow diplomats warned that the use of U.S. weaponry on Russian soil crossed “another red line” that was likely to have serious consequences even as the ultimate gain for Kyiv was unclear.

“This is a step towards further escalation and of course there are additional risks since we don’t know how Russia is going to react," the academic said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

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LOLOL. Escalation. LOLOL

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Markov said it was likely that the Ukrainian government plans to use the seized territory as a bargaining chip in future talks and that it was now a race against time for Russian troops to counterattack before the Ukrainian brigades dig in.

The conduct of the war so far has shown that “the advantage goes to those defending,” he said. “I think their plan is to take as much territory as possible and while Russia is collecting its reserves they will build fortifications.”

Even though Russia has greater aviation forces than Ukraine, Moscow’s recent military operations in Kharkiv and Donbas have shown that it is extremely difficult to seize territory. “If they act at the same speed as Russia is attacking elsewhere it could take a year to take back the Kursk region,” Markov said.

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An excellent point. If Ukraine can defend in Kursk at the same rate it's defending in the Donbas, we're looking at a year of occupation before Russia pushes them out. The key is take advantage of Russia's delayed response to continue to expand the occupied territory and construct quality defensive lines.

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Reports by Russian military bloggers and pro-war Telegram channels suggested that Ukrainian troops have occupied more than 20 Russian border villages and partially at least one small city, Sudzha. The head of the city administration in Kurchatov, where Russia’s Kursk nuclear power station is based, said on Friday that Ukrainian troops were nearing the nuclear plant.

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While I don't think that Ukraine can take the nuclear plant, the threat of taking it forces Russia to concentrate its forces in the area on defending the plant, instead of counterattacking Ukrainian positions.

A region topographical map at most 200 feet difference in bottoms to "ridges" in the region

LINK

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While I don't think that Ukraine can take the nuclear plant, the threat of taking it forces Russia to concentrate its forces in the area on defending the plant, instead of counterattacking Ukrainian positions.

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I seriously question whether the Ru army is organzed enough to mount anything more than a haphazard defense in the next several days.

1) “legally” since this is russian territory he can use yearly conscripts to fight to reclaim

So he may let conscripts and aviation/artillery fight to retake. But this tactic will level Russian villages

2) Putin may use this to increase the amount on conscripts he calls up.

maybe he fell out a window.

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But if Trump wins, and he wants to force ukraine to capitulate to Russia,

When has he ever said this?

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My reading of Trump on this is that he will offer a carrot and a big stick. I doubt Putin will go for the carrot and Trump won't do a dribs and drabs roll out of equipment.

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texag7 is deep into a poli board post about how reckless ukraine is being and how we are this close to starting a nuclear war. stout is just waiting to upvote it

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Let’s just pray Putin doesn’t go crazy and end up using a Uke Nuke. We’d like to avoid that.

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