re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Multiple Russian accounts are now saying that Ukraine is in control of Sudzha, a town of 5000 that hosts the junction of the Trans-Siberian and Brotherhood natural gas pipelines.

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Russian reports say that Ukraine is already constructing defenses around Sudzha. This is not meant to be a temporary incursion.

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If the enemy is behind you that's a recipe for panic and once panic starts it's hard to stop, barrier troops notwithstanding. I'm not saying the Russian army is about to break and run en masse, but if they did it wouldn't totally surprise me. They're barely trained, barely supplied, undisciplined, unmotivated by anything other than money, and they know their leaders don't care whether they live or die. If they get the idea they're being abandoned, look out.

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Petraeus has been predicting this as a possibility for quite a while now. This could be the trigger and nobody saw this incursion coming.

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why not bypass Kursk and just drive on Voronezh.

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Because Kursk controls the major road junction that you need to keep yourself supplied. Plus is protects your flank.

Scott Ritter Opinion Piece 2017

Looking into the FBI raid on this Scott Ritter clown yesterday and I stumbled onto this jewel from 2017. The title of which is "NATO Would be Totally Outmatched in a Conventional War With Russia."

My guess is that the FBI raid has something to do with Ritter not registering as a foreign agent of Russia as required. A brief synopsis of his legal troubles:

1) Took a plea deal with no jail time for trying to seduce a 16yo girl online
2) Took a plea deal and served about 2 years in prison for trying to seduce a 15yo girl online
3) Took another plea deal for exposing himself and masturbating in front of a woman who thought she was just meeting him for a dating app date

He later admitted that he could not go a single day without getting onto some online chat forum and filming himself masturbating and sending the pics to random women. Or something along those lines...

Anyhow, here are a few gems from his opinion piece, ironically in the Huff Post:

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The cost of refurbishing an M-1 tank to the new M-1A2 standard needed to fight and survive on the modern battlefield is between $8-10 million.......A new T-14 Armata main battle tank costs the Russian government around $3.7 million; again, about one third the expense of a NATO and American tank

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Ukrainians only have inferior tanks and NATO anti tank missiles are useless

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inferior export versions of the T-72; the Russian army uses a different model, with modern reactive armor and associated defensive systems that are designed to defeat the latest American and NATO anti-armor weapons.....After evaluating Russian capabilities in the aftermath of the Cold War, American intelligence determined that the notion of American qualitative superiority was a myth; had there been a war in Europe, the tanks of the then-Soviet Army would have been nearly impervious to the weapons then available to NATO and American forces. Today, the NATO and American anti-armor weapons continue to play catch up to new innovations being fielded by the Russians.

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The United States has spent billions of dollars funding the deployment of units such as the 3 Armored BCT to Europe, and preparing for the deployment of even more force. But this is very much a losing proposition; Russia has assembled overwhelming force, and would be able to easily match or exceed any buildup the United States and NATO may embark on.

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The Russians routinely train in large-scale combined arms – i.e., incorporating supporting artillery and air power with maneuver – operations, something the United States stopped doing after 9/11. The simple fact of the matter is that of the two major ground combat forces in Europe today – the Russian military and NATO – only the Russians are prepared to fight and win a general war in Europe.

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He also brags about how the 1st Guards Tank Army is made up of more than "50,000 men, 700 distinct artillery pieces, and over 800 tanks", and would destroy any force NATO could put in the field.

It was the battered remnanats of the 1st Guards Tank Army that were routed at Kharkiv two years ago, and fled the field leaving most of its equipment to fall into Ukrainian hands.

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I get the feeling that the truth of the matter will be kept well hidden for a while.

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Which they should. They give details to the Pentagon or Jake Sullivan and the NYT will publish it immediately.

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He also reported gunfire, likely from Ukrainian reconnaissance special forces units, in the village of Anastasevka, more than 18.5 miles from the border and about 28 miles from the Kursk nuclear power station.

Multiple military bloggers also reported gunfire, likely from Ukrainian reconnaissance special forces units, in the village of Anastasevka.

They also reported Ukraine engineering equipment to try and dig in and hold ground.

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LINK Ukraine troops 18 miles deep in a couple of places

Thousands of Russians fled the Kursk region Thursday as Ukrainian tanks rolled deeper into Russian territory, the third day of Ukraine's boldest strike on President Vladimir Putin's forces since the war began more than two years ago.

Putin called the Ukrainian attack a "major provocation."


Really?

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China has been economically "invading" portions of Asia and Africa for 30 years. It "invests"money in a railroad in Africa. Or a paper mill in Siberia. Or a port complex in Cambodia. Then it waits for the right moment to "protect its investment". So the area near the paper mill in Siberia has some local unrest. And the Russian army isn't around to secure it. So China just sends in some "private security force" to protect its investment. Or if the African Republic of Botsylvania misses a debt payment on the railroad, China takes it over and begins filling rail cars full of grain to head back to the mother land as debt payments.

China is truly playing the long game with the rest of the world. The problem is that they might run out of demographics before their investments have time to pay off.

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Yep... but all of that is still a cheaper prospect than a full-scale messy military invasion and occupation, you know?

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Which they should. They give details to the Pentagon or Jake Sullivan and the NYT will publish it immediately.

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Absolutely. Although I’d be more worried about Russian spies.

And along those lines… it sounds like Ukraine plans these things with help from the British.

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But Ukraine can't do that with a couple of thousand men. It would take 12-15,000 and 200-300 MBTs and about 1000 trucks. I don't think Ukraine has that kind of mobile force yet.

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All the talk has been about the Ukraine's lack of manpower in the South. Could it be that was intentional all along, keeping multiple brigades in reserve for this push. With this thrust across the border they've used at the very least two experienced and capable brigades to spear head it, where as logic would suggest they would have been better served in trying to help staunch the Russian advance elsewhere.

Might be far fetched, admittedly, but the Ukie's have shown themselves to be rather cunning like that before.