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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/5/24 at 6:12 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 8/5/24 at 6:12 am to StormyMcMan
Ukrainian Armed Forces Launch Massive Missile Attack on Enemy in Luhansk
The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a missile attack on enemy targets in the temporarily occupied Luhansk.
The relevant videos were posted on local Telegram channels.
According to local media reports, the attack was launched at around 4 p.m.
The means of destruction has not been officially disclosed, but in one of the videos from local residents, the sound of jet engines can be heard. It can be assumed that Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles were used.
The illegal “head” of the temporarily occupied Luhansk region claimed that there were 12 missiles – eight ballistic ATACMS and 4 Storm Shadow/SCALP.
The OSINT community “OSINT with Harbuz” identified the likely targets, including the Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School of Navigators (48.53061290767857, 39.38474015788692) and the Luhansk Machine-Building Plant (48.545722409660726, 39.320669727263784).
In addition, it is reported that the Donets plant (48.54768545231059, 39.31776553372352), which housed the base of the occupation forces, was struck.
Another OSIN community, CyberBoroshno, informs that the missiles also targeted the Trykotazhnyk plant (48.5736348, 39.4141076), which also housed the invaders’ base and ammunition depot.
Militarnyi
The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a missile attack on enemy targets in the temporarily occupied Luhansk.
The relevant videos were posted on local Telegram channels.
According to local media reports, the attack was launched at around 4 p.m.
The means of destruction has not been officially disclosed, but in one of the videos from local residents, the sound of jet engines can be heard. It can be assumed that Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles were used.
The illegal “head” of the temporarily occupied Luhansk region claimed that there were 12 missiles – eight ballistic ATACMS and 4 Storm Shadow/SCALP.
The OSINT community “OSINT with Harbuz” identified the likely targets, including the Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School of Navigators (48.53061290767857, 39.38474015788692) and the Luhansk Machine-Building Plant (48.545722409660726, 39.320669727263784).
In addition, it is reported that the Donets plant (48.54768545231059, 39.31776553372352), which housed the base of the occupation forces, was struck.
Another OSIN community, CyberBoroshno, informs that the missiles also targeted the Trykotazhnyk plant (48.5736348, 39.4141076), which also housed the invaders’ base and ammunition depot.
Militarnyi
1
Posted on 8/5/24 at 11:30 am to cypher
Video of a Russian pilot just shot down videoing his falling aircraft from his parachute. No idea when this happened and could be old but just now coming to the surface. Looks like a Su-27, Su-30 or Su-35 to me. Could even be Su-34 although you sure don’t see the other pilot anywhere in his parachute so it’s more likely a single pilot fighter.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 8/5/24 at 4:39 pm to LSUPilot07
In looking at pictures it’s a good sign that the F-16s have been sent with AIM-120 air to air missiles as well as AIM-9 Sidewinders. I unfortunately only saw the AIM-120B however instead of the D variant that has a much greater range. The pilots were wearing the standard JHMCS helmets for the F-16 so they seem to be kitted out well to serve as an air defense protector against missiles. They will need the AIM-120D long range missiles to go against other aircraft though.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 5:00 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
They will need the AIM-120D long range missiles to go against other aircraft though.
They need to force those glide bomb launch aircraft back out of range as soon as possible by what ever means possible.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 5:07 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Russian Railways deputy head Sergei Kobzev told his subordinates the situation is critical: complete collapse of the entire railroad network in Russia could happen in days.
Railroad chiefs ordered to work to the limit and threatened with dismissal and execution for failure.
LINK
If this is the case, that is a collapse of a nation which is almost 100% reliant on rail.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 5:37 pm to CitizenK
quote:
almost 100% reliant on rail.
Yet imports the vast majority of its locomotives .
If you want to know why so many Republicans abruptly switched their support to the bill to fund Ukraine...it's probably tied to some pretty hard intelligence that several pieces of string holding the Russian military ball of yarn are about to come undone.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 5:56 pm to No Colors
quote:
If you want to know why so many Republicans
Good point, the big issue was what is the plan to win. They didn't want to just throw money away.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 7:09 pm to CitizenK
Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russia’s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said No—And Now It’s Too Late.
Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.
It’s a top priority of the government in Kyiv to blunt the glide-bombing campaign by destroying the bombers, the bombs—or both.
There was a rare opportunity to deliver a major blow against the KAB infrastructure earlier this summer, when the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment parked dozens of Su-34s—out of roughly 100 in service—in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.
Voronezh Malshevo is a reasonably well-defended base, so the Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire their best American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets at the base. The ATACMs are almost impossible to intercept.
But the administration of U.S. Pres. Joe Biden said no. “Our policy has not changed,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters last month. As before, Ukraine would only be allowed to fire ATACMS at targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
The Russians observed the heated diplomacy regarding ATACMS—and made a rare proactive decision to pull the Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo and other border airfields.
“Between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated a lion’s [share] of valuable military assets away from the border area with Ukraine,” Frontelligence Insight noted. The departure of Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo was among “the most notable movements.”
Forbes
Ukraine is still hitting Russian airfields, but only with less destructive drones.
It’s a top priority of the government in Kyiv to blunt the glide-bombing campaign by destroying the bombers, the bombs—or both.
There was a rare opportunity to deliver a major blow against the KAB infrastructure earlier this summer, when the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment parked dozens of Su-34s—out of roughly 100 in service—in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.
Voronezh Malshevo is a reasonably well-defended base, so the Ukrainians pleaded for permission to fire their best American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets at the base. The ATACMs are almost impossible to intercept.
But the administration of U.S. Pres. Joe Biden said no. “Our policy has not changed,” Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told reporters last month. As before, Ukraine would only be allowed to fire ATACMS at targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
The Russians observed the heated diplomacy regarding ATACMS—and made a rare proactive decision to pull the Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo and other border airfields.
“Between the second half of June and mid-July, Russian forces relocated a lion’s [share] of valuable military assets away from the border area with Ukraine,” Frontelligence Insight noted. The departure of Su-34s from Voronezh Malshevo was among “the most notable movements.”
Forbes
Posted on 8/5/24 at 7:21 pm to CitizenK
quote:
If this is the case, that is a collapse of a nation which is almost 100% reliant on rail.
Maybe Ukraine special forces can speed the process up by sabotaging some rail trestles.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 7:22 pm to cypher
quote:
There was a rare opportunity to deliver a major blow against the KAB infrastructure earlier this summer, when the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment parked dozens of Su-34s—out of roughly 100 in service—in open at Voronezh Malshevo air base in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.
Just damn sickening.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:00 pm to cypher
quote:
Ukraine Had A Chance To Blow Up Russia’s Best Warplanes On The Tarmac. The White House Said No—And Now It’s Too Late.
"As long as it takes."
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:26 pm to cypher
That’s Biden for you. Just enough to keep them fighting and dying but a target like that is just unacceptable to not hit and Biden should have to answer for that himself on the record. If I were Ukraine it might have had to be one of those better to ask for forgiveness than permission things and launched 10 or so cluster ATACMS that would have taken a huge uppercut to their new failed Su-34 bomber fleet. Anything sitting outside or protected would have looked like swiss cheese with all the holes in the aircraft skin. That could have been really put a dent in Russia’s offensive along the line because they wouldn’t have nearly as much air cover and they would then need to start bringing out the Ka-52 again. They went away from their best attack helicopter beside they were getting blown out of the sky and using Su-25s to do their job of CAS and the Su-34 would drop the glide bombs 10 km behind its own front lines then turn around.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:38 pm to Auburn1968
I agree but right now they don’t have the numbers to contest anything on the combat line. They have 10 planes with just 6 pilots so what they can do is extremely limited. It will be the end of the year or next spring before you start to see full squadron type strength from the F-16.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 9:08 pm to bigjoe1
ISW Update Aug 5th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.
A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD's Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future.
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with various high-ranking Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian in Tehran on August 5.
Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State's Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.
Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.
Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne.
The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in domestic political roles.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 10:11 pm to StormyMcMan
Not sure how credible but it does sound about right.
LINK
quote:
i see people finally found the russia railroad article. i read it several days ago, i can sum it up like this:
1: putin signed a law that abolished the russian ministry of the railway which put rail under the ministry of transportation
2: the ministry of transportation split the profitable parts of rail across several agencies, and the unprofitable parts are neglected and ignored
3: the agencies pretty much randomly split apart their roles and barely work together
4: no salary increases for workers, even under crazy inflation
5: workers are mass quitting for all above reason
6: he wrote this whole section about how pissed he is the trains dont cook their own food anymore and now serve microwaved stuff. it was probably the thing hes more upset about
7: workers are leaving the industry entirely hoping to get out before shite hits the fan and putin panics.
and for those reasons he believes the russian railway will implode.
it has nothing to do with ballbearings.
LINK
Posted on 8/5/24 at 10:22 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Russian Railways deputy head Sergei Kobzev told his subordinates the situation is critical: complete collapse of the entire railroad network in Russia could happen in days. Railroad chiefs ordered to work to the limit and threatened with dismissal and execution for failure. LINK If this is the case, that is a collapse of a nation which is almost 100% reliant on rail.
1. I will believe it if/when it happens.
2. If it does happen then it’s curtains for Putin.
3. I told yall over a year ago that my friends in Russia told me that the Russian railroads were having to bring soviet era engines back and they were not getting the job done. Nobody believed me. I hate to toot my own horn or seem like a know it all but I do know a thing or two.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 10:28 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Russian Railways deputy head Sergei Kobzev told his subordinates the situation is critical: complete collapse of the entire railroad network in Russia could happen in days. Railroad chiefs ordered to work to the limit and threatened with dismissal and execution for failure.
Why is the rail system on the verge of collapse?
Posted on 8/5/24 at 10:36 pm to TBoy
quote:
Why is the rail system on the verge of collapse?
The Russians have spent the better part of 30 years modernizing Soviet built locomotives with western technology or replacing them with western locomotives. They are running out of spare parts for them. The same also applies to signaling systems, scheduling systems, etc. Also Russia was not prepared for a long war. It has been at war for 2+ years which wears out equipment. Russia’s main producer of rail road equipment is Uralvagonzavod which is also its main tank and armored vehicle factory. Russia’s shift to a war economy means that Uralvagonzavod has likely transferred employees from the rail product lines to the tank lines and so they can’t produce enough parts for their railroads.
This post was edited on 8/5/24 at 10:44 pm
Posted on 8/5/24 at 10:51 pm to CitizenK
quote:
If this is the case, that is a collapse of a nation which is almost 100% reliant on rail.
Dependent on electric rail. Good reason not to go all electric in anything.
Posted on 8/5/24 at 10:55 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Russia’s shift to a war economy means that Uralvagonzavod has likely transferred employees from the rail product lines to the tank lines and so they can’t produce enough parts for their railroads.
This isn't the USSR anymore and Russia doesn't have Ukraine's heavy manufacturing as it once did, or that of all its former Warsaw Pact partners.
Those who think that Russia can pop out new equipment like puppies just don't have a clue. Russia makes very little of what it once did. QA/QC wasn't that good before the Soviet collapse anyway.
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