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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/6/24 at 7:01 am to Tigris
Posted on 7/6/24 at 7:01 am to Tigris
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 6 July 2024
According to Russian independent media on 4 July 2024, at the request of the Russian communications regulator Roskomnadzor, several Virtual Private Network (VPN) applications were removed from the Russian version of the App Store. This follows previous removals of VPN apps in 2022 and 2023. Roskomnadzor gained the power to block access to VPN services without reference to a court in March 2024. Roskomnadzor justified the ban due to the apps containing 'content illegal in Russia. This is almost certainly intended to restrict the ability of Russian citizens to access independent Russian, and international media, as well as to simplify the ability of the security services to monitor Russian citizens.
Separately, also on 4 July, Russian media reported that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), has demanded that Russian telecom operators stop providing Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) Telephony services. VoIP is increasingly the international industry standard due to its broadband efficiency and the ability to integrate telephony into a unified communications system together with email and video teleconferencing. The implausible official FSB justification is that the measure is meant to reduce instances of fraud. In reality, it is highly likely it is intended to increase the ability of the Russian authorities to monitor and restrict the communications of private citizens and corporate entities.
These two measures are both in line with Russian efforts to control its domestic information environment and limit citizens' access to information that does not align with government narratives. This effort is longstanding. In 2019, Russia held exercises to temporarily cut off Russian access to the internet and passed 'Sovereign Internet' legislation in the same year. However, this effort has substantially accelerated after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with most independent media being shuttered or forced abroad, and increasingly draconian restrictions on citizens' abilities to access foreign media. The effect of these restrictions is yet to be seen, as educated urban Russians continue to find inventive ways to get around these measures.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 6 July 2024
According to Russian independent media on 4 July 2024, at the request of the Russian communications regulator Roskomnadzor, several Virtual Private Network (VPN) applications were removed from the Russian version of the App Store. This follows previous removals of VPN apps in 2022 and 2023. Roskomnadzor gained the power to block access to VPN services without reference to a court in March 2024. Roskomnadzor justified the ban due to the apps containing 'content illegal in Russia. This is almost certainly intended to restrict the ability of Russian citizens to access independent Russian, and international media, as well as to simplify the ability of the security services to monitor Russian citizens.
Separately, also on 4 July, Russian media reported that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), has demanded that Russian telecom operators stop providing Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) Telephony services. VoIP is increasingly the international industry standard due to its broadband efficiency and the ability to integrate telephony into a unified communications system together with email and video teleconferencing. The implausible official FSB justification is that the measure is meant to reduce instances of fraud. In reality, it is highly likely it is intended to increase the ability of the Russian authorities to monitor and restrict the communications of private citizens and corporate entities.
These two measures are both in line with Russian efforts to control its domestic information environment and limit citizens' access to information that does not align with government narratives. This effort is longstanding. In 2019, Russia held exercises to temporarily cut off Russian access to the internet and passed 'Sovereign Internet' legislation in the same year. However, this effort has substantially accelerated after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with most independent media being shuttered or forced abroad, and increasingly draconian restrictions on citizens' abilities to access foreign media. The effect of these restrictions is yet to be seen, as educated urban Russians continue to find inventive ways to get around these measures.
1
Posted on 7/6/24 at 7:09 am to cypher
Le Pen calls for cancellation of authorisation for Ukraine to use French weapons to strike Russia
Andriy Syniavskyi, Roman Petrenko — Saturday, 6 July 2024, 12:07
Marine Le Pen, the de-facto leader of the French far-right National Rally party, has promised that if her party comes to power after the second round of parliamentary elections, she will not allow Ukraine to use French long-range weapons to strike Russia.
Source: Le Pen in an interview with CNN
Details: Le Pen said that in addition to the deployment of French troops, which French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out, Kyiv's permission to use French long-range missiles in Russia would also be cancelled.
She noted that the only red line with regard to Ukraine is to prevent France from becoming a fighting side in the war through Ukraine’s use of French-supplied missiles against targets in Russia.
"If Emmanuel Macron wants to send troops to Ukraine and the prime minister is against it, then there are no troops sent to Ukraine. The prime minister has the final say," she said.
Background:
In turn, Jordan Bardella, the leader of the National Rally, said that if his political force came to power, he would not allow Russia to "consume Ukraine".
Bardella also stated that he was ready to confront Russia if he became prime minister after the early parliamentary elections.
The results of the latest two polls in France predict that the right-wing populist National Rally will not win an absolute majority in the National Assembly in the second round of the 7 July parliamentary elections.
The right-wing populist National Rally and its allies won more than 33% of the vote in the first round of early parliamentary elections in France on 30 June.
Ukrainska Pravda
Andriy Syniavskyi, Roman Petrenko — Saturday, 6 July 2024, 12:07
Marine Le Pen, the de-facto leader of the French far-right National Rally party, has promised that if her party comes to power after the second round of parliamentary elections, she will not allow Ukraine to use French long-range weapons to strike Russia.
Source: Le Pen in an interview with CNN
Details: Le Pen said that in addition to the deployment of French troops, which French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out, Kyiv's permission to use French long-range missiles in Russia would also be cancelled.
She noted that the only red line with regard to Ukraine is to prevent France from becoming a fighting side in the war through Ukraine’s use of French-supplied missiles against targets in Russia.
"If Emmanuel Macron wants to send troops to Ukraine and the prime minister is against it, then there are no troops sent to Ukraine. The prime minister has the final say," she said.
Background:
In turn, Jordan Bardella, the leader of the National Rally, said that if his political force came to power, he would not allow Russia to "consume Ukraine".
Bardella also stated that he was ready to confront Russia if he became prime minister after the early parliamentary elections.
The results of the latest two polls in France predict that the right-wing populist National Rally will not win an absolute majority in the National Assembly in the second round of the 7 July parliamentary elections.
The right-wing populist National Rally and its allies won more than 33% of the vote in the first round of early parliamentary elections in France on 30 June.
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 7/6/24 at 7:34 am to StormyMcMan
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Novinite: Bulgaria will propose to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine at the NATO summit
Sofia wants to be a mediator in these negotiations
LINK
quote:
Armenia will hold military exercises together with the US
They will be held from July 15 to 24 under the name "EAGLE PARTNER 2024," according to the website of the Armenian Defense Ministry.
LINK
quote:
Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico praised Hungarian colleague Viktor Orbán for his visit to moscow, — Reuters.
"Peace initiatives are not enough, I repeat, peace initiatives and peace negotiations are not enough," Fico said during his first public speech after the assassination attempt.
Fico said he would have joined Orbán if not for his health.
LINK
quote:
To liberate Crimea, the Kerch Bridge must be destroyed because it is an element of logistics
"And all the military logistics of the Russians must be destroyed for victory," commander of the Ukrainian Navy says.
LINK
quote:
Le Pen promises to cancel permission for Ukraine to use French weapons against Russia
According to her, in addition to the deployment of French troops, which was allowed by President Macron, Kyiv's permission for the use of French long-range missiles in Russia will also be canceled.
LINK
quote:
??A blackout schedule is being introduced in the Rostov region of Russia
Russian media report that the reason is a lack of capacity.
For two days now, residents have been complaining about the lack of electricity in various parts of Rostov: traffic lights are not working, it is impossible to heat food and turn on air conditioning at home.
LINK
Posted on 7/6/24 at 7:52 am to StormyMcMan
Moldova will generate electricity for Ukraine in exchange for gas, - MFA
Generation plants will be installed on the territory of Moldova, which will use natural gas supplied by Ukraine.
Joint statement of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Romania
Published on July 5, 2024
LINK
Note the frequent use of the term, "the Republic of Moldova and Romania". Singular use of 'Republic'.
Need to do an orc sweep of Transnistria first, but that should be no problem.
Generation plants will be installed on the territory of Moldova, which will use natural gas supplied by Ukraine.
Joint statement of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova and Romania
Published on July 5, 2024
quote:
We, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova, Romania and Ukraine met on July 05, 2024, in Chisinau, to discuss the current security situation in our region, the status and future perspectives of cooperation, based on trilateral discussions held in Odesa on September 15, 2022, and in Bucharest on April 13, 2023. We were joined by ministers and senior officials in charge of energy and infrastructure.
quote:
We emphasized the paramount importance of the development of regional electricity interconnections, such as the promotion of the project of the second circuit of the 330 kV Over Head Line (OHL) "Bal?i-Dnestrovsk Hydroelectric Power Plant", OHL 330 kV "Vulcane?ti - Artsyz", OHL 400 kV "Isaccea - Vulcane?ti - Chi?inau", OHL 400 kV " Bal?i - Suceava", OHL 400 kV " Stra?eni - Gutina?", OHL 400 kV Suceava - Cernau?i and OHL "Yuzhnoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant - Prymorska - Vulcane?ti - Isaccea".
We will work together to increase the interconnection capacity of the Trans-Balkan natural gas route as part of the Vertical Gas Corridor, including harmonizing the gas quality parameters and developing projects dedicated to the production of green hydrogen using renewable energy sources. The Republic of Moldova expressed its readiness to provide electricity supply to Ukraine within the framework of a «gas-to-electricity swap» by deploying on its territory power generations units, using natural gas supplied by Ukraine for this scope.
LINK
Note the frequent use of the term, "the Republic of Moldova and Romania". Singular use of 'Republic'.
Need to do an orc sweep of Transnistria first, but that should be no problem.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 8:43 am to Coeur du Tigre
It's because there's not really a "Moldovan" identity. The country of Moldova is simply the part of Romania that the USSR occupied at the end of WWII. The people speak the Romanian language. Most of them think of their ethnicity as Romanian. Moldova joining Romania would be like East and West Germany unifying after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
As you say, most of the people who don't want that are the Russians who ended up living in Moldova and created the "country" of Transnistria. To be fair, there are a couple of other minority groups in Moldova who also don't want to be Romanian, but I'd be curious to see a poll on the desire for unification.
As you say, most of the people who don't want that are the Russians who ended up living in Moldova and created the "country" of Transnistria. To be fair, there are a couple of other minority groups in Moldova who also don't want to be Romanian, but I'd be curious to see a poll on the desire for unification.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 9:39 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'd be curious to see a poll on the desire for unification.
quote:
Though historically Romanian support for unification was high, a March 2022 survey following the Russian invasion of Ukraine indicated that only 11% of Romania's population supports an immediate union, while over 42% think it is not the right moment
A majority in Moldova continues to oppose it. However, support in Moldova for reunification has increased significantly, with polls asking "if a referendum took place next Sunday regarding the unification of the Republic of Moldova and Romania, would you vote for or against the unification?" rising from approximately 20% to 44% support from 2015 to 2022. Support for unification with Romania is much lower in Transnistria and Gagauzia than in the rest of Moldova.
Individuals who advocate the unification are usually called "unionists" (Romanian: unioni?ti). The supporters of the union may refer to the opponents as "Moldovenists" (Romanian: moldoveni?ti). When referring to themselves as a group, opponents of the unification sometimes use the term "Statalists"
Wiki
Posted on 7/6/24 at 9:47 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
rising from approximately 20% to 44% support from 2015 to 2022.
This trend appears to follow the trend in Ukraine joining NATO from 2013 to end of 2021
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 9:49 am
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:12 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
quote:
It's not Poliboard participants doing it.
hahahahahaha
Sorry to disrupt your safespace.
Maybe this thread should be moved to DU.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:25 am to AU86
quote:there is a lot of irony here
Sorry to disrupt your safespace.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:34 am to AU86
It seems that Russians are crapping over the president elect of Iran supposedly a moderate, being pro USA, and anti Russian, even though the Ayatollah is still in charge.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 10:48 am to CitizenK
quote:
Iran
It does make me curious why no one says Iran escalated the conflict and should be afraid of attacks by providing Shaheds to Russia and letting them attack Ukrainian territory but the Western countries doing the same in reverse is escalatory and worrisome
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:21 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
It does make me curious why no one says Iran escalated the conflict and should be afraid of attacks by providing Shaheds to Russia and letting them attack Ukrainian territory but the Western countries doing the same in reverse is escalatory and worrisome
It’s also curious as to how Putin, a shrewd, clever, brilliant and a great leader and strategist got tricked by Nuland, the CIA and Joe Biden into invading Ukraine and ramping things up in his special operation,
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 1:48 pm to CitizenK
The thing to keep in mind is that, in Iran, the "hardliners" say,
"We will kill all the Jews very soon!"
while the "moderates" say,
"We will only kill half the Jews right now, and the others we will let live if they convert to Islam."
In Iran, "moderate" doesn't mean the same thing as it means elsewhere.
"We will kill all the Jews very soon!"
while the "moderates" say,
"We will only kill half the Jews right now, and the others we will let live if they convert to Islam."
In Iran, "moderate" doesn't mean the same thing as it means elsewhere.
Posted on 7/6/24 at 2:57 pm to GOP_Tiger
Russians are confident that they hit two Patriot launchers. Ukrainians say that they hit decoys.
EDIT: Here's a tweet of the Ukrainian claim that these were decoys: LINK.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. EDIT: Here's a tweet of the Ukrainian claim that these were decoys: LINK.
quote:
"Thanks to everyone who helps with quality models of aircraft and air defense systems. The enemy has fewer "Iskanders", and the mock-ups will still be delivered."
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 3:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 7/6/24 at 3:59 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 7/6/24 at 4:08 pm to StormyMcMan
The Russian Orthodox Church falsely claims that soldiers who perished in the ‘Special Military Operation’ have begun to resurrect.
LINK
The real kicker is that happens to non Christians are baptized after being resurrected per this looney toon
LINK
The real kicker is that happens to non Christians are baptized after being resurrected per this looney toon
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 4:23 pm to CitizenK
quote:
It seems that Russians are crapping over the president elect of Iran supposedly a moderate, being pro USA, and anti Russian, even though the Ayatollah is still in charge.
The majority of the Iranian population hate the Mullahs and the Islamic government... there's constant and neverending protests in the streets and have been since Khomeini pulled the bait and switch on them and gave them an Islamic government instead of full Democracy like he promised to get the Shah's government deposed. Iranians mistrusted the US because we reinstalled the Shah after he was run off in the 50s and the government nationalized the oil fields (something BP was pissed about and the CIA worked with them to get "corrected") but... most of the population with first-hand memory of that is deceased, and the generation that overthrew the Shah in the late 70s have accepted that there's worse forces in the world. Khomeini learned from his own successful revolution, though (I think we've talked about this before)... it's the middle-class that is the gunpowder in a revolution, plus when the Police and military come face to face with their relatives, friends and neighbors in the streets, they turn, and that's a domino action up the chain of command because nobody wants to be stomped to death in the street. But from the minute he took power, Khomeini sent people out into the countryside to recruit the people there to put on police uniforms and get paid more than they usually make in a year or two to come and beat up or kill the urban people they don't know and hate anyway. That has quelled the counter-revolution since 1979... but can it last forever? Like anywhere else, younger people are forced to relocate into cities because there is no way to make a living out in the countryside unless you just subsist as a goat herder, and increasingly that's not something that makes you a hot marriage prospect. And so Iran has been trying to learn from China how to pacify its urban populations. In China, the government just made a deal: we'll give you a great economy you thrive in if you accept not having individual rights! I don't know if that will work in Iran...
But Russia should freak out... they know they cannot really Trust China, India will not allow itself to be seen as a true ally, and nobody looks at North Korea and thinks it's a model modern nation... they're running out of places to turn.
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 7/6/24 at 4:26 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
It does make me curious why no one says Iran escalated the conflict and should be afraid of attacks by providing Shaheds to Russia and letting them attack Ukrainian territory but the Western countries doing the same in reverse is escalatory and worrisome
very good point!!!
Posted on 7/6/24 at 4:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The thing to keep in mind is that, in Iran, the "hardliners" say,
"We will kill all the Jews very soon!"
while the "moderates" say,
"We will only kill half the Jews right now, and the others we will let live if they convert to Islam."
In Iran, "moderate" doesn't mean the same thing as it means elsewhere.
In Iran, neither of those vocal groups really represents the public... but yes, among who is allowed to participate in running for office you're right.
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 4:35 pm
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