re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The Russian Orthodox Church falsely claims that soldiers who perished in the ‘Special Military Operation’ have begun to resurrect.

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Key Takeaways:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban continues to posture himself as a potential mediator to end the war in Ukraine despite Putin's rejection of mediation or serious negotiations. Orban is likely aiming to shift Western focus towards possible peace negotiations as part of his overarching effort to undermine European support for Ukraine.

Orban's and others' calls for negotiations and Ukraine's peace formula, are distinct efforts with different aims, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated he is not interested in any negotiated agreements short of Ukraine's capitulation.

Ukrainian forces struck energy infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai with drones on the night of July 5 to 6.

Iran announced on July 6 that Iran and Russia signed a bank agreement on July 4 enabling Russia and Iran to trade in the Russian ruble and Iranian rial.

The Russian government continues efforts to isolate the Russian people from material it considers antithetical to state interests and ideology.

Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Avdiivka.

Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to increase monetary incentives to recruit contract soldiers (kontraktniki).

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A Patriot battery consists of several launchers, a radar module, an electric power generator and a control module. At a minimum it has 7 locations over at least a square mile.

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The Russian Orthodox Church falsely claims that soldiers who perished in the ‘Special Military Operation’ have begun to resurrect. LINK

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China and Belarus announce joint 'anti-terrorist' army drills near Brest in Belarus (8-19.07), at the border with Poland & Ukraine

This comes as:

1. Belarus and Russia maintain weaponized migration pressure at EU borders
2. Poland starts to limit the Silk Road rail transports at the main gateway near Brest (Malaszewicze hub) due to risks of sanctions circumvention and Minsk's aggressive behavior
3. Belarus ramps up propaganda hysteria on the supposed threat of millitary aggression from Ukraine

China claims the drills were planned in advance (Xinhua), yet Beijing must be aware of this context. Bad signaling vis a vis Europe.

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The numbers documented in the latest article of the Economist reporting on the Russian losses in Ukraine in the last two years are staggering. They have exceeded all losses the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation experienced from 1945 to 2022, combined. Somewhere between 462,000 and 728,000 of Russian soldiers have been permanently eliminated, basically confirming the numbers Ukrainian forces have been reporting all along.

You can also see from that chart that the numbers of destroyed Russian militants has increased, significantly, over the past months, especially in connection with the failed Kharkiv incursion. It confirms what I was suspecting for a while. Russia is trying to brute-force a decision on the battlefield, respectively, is trying to project that it is making progress on the ground and lie to the public that Russia is winning the war. Though a few gains have been made on the ground, they all have been tiny. In some cases such as the Kharkiv incursion, they have been even partially reversed.

Strategically seen the Russian offensives have been all but a string of failures. The attrition rate of Russian human material and hardware is not sustainable on the long run. The situation of the Russian armor and the reserves have recently also been part of the debate. Depending on the analysts, Russian reserves of armor will last between 18 and 36 months, but it will end in a foreseeable future.

The Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil facilities and other high value targets in Russia might expedite Russia's downfall. It is a thorn in Russia's side, which many still don't take notice of enough.

Summarizing the paragraphs above, it appears that the Kremlin considers this year to be the make-or-break period. The Russian reserves are not enough to sustain a prolonged war, beyond the next 2 or 3 years. It is coming to on end, one way or another, so more than ever Russian cannon fodder has to be thrown into the fire. Putin needs to convince or more specifically bluff that Russia is winning, now more than ever, but numbers are not lying and Russia is failing by virtually every metric.

This is why Russians are investing so much to install their puppets in Western leadership positions and hope that they stop the war for them. This concerted effort by Russia will accelerate in the coming months. If Russians fail in doing so or their puppets do not turn out being this good, especially after realizing that long-term precautions have been taken to mitigate those risks, it will have a dramatic impact on the Russian war effort.

Europe and especially Germany are holding the keys for Russia's end. It is up to their determination to steer into the right direction, even without the US. The economic capacities are available even today.

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Dutch Foreign Minister on military training in Ukraine: no plans yet, but not ruled out

"We are currently in talks with other partners. We don't have any concrete plans for training yet. As you know, we are already training in other countries," Caspar Veldkamp said during a visit to Kyiv.

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