re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Perun is a weekly podcast on Youtube, new ones drop on Sundays. It's worth watching the first one he did on Russia/Ukraine which came out shortly after the full scale invasion. It's not something he ever planned to do but has a solid background and mind for it. Most of the ones lately aren't directly Russia/Ukraine but are generally about the future of militaries.

Flash back to the first Perun episode on Russia/Ukraine.

Cool, I'll check it out

He effectively destroys all the politard claims and some of Ukrainian propaganda which really isn't much.

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Well the Navy finally unveiled the eventual successor to the AIM-120 as the Navy’s new long range air to air missile. At RIMPAC a flight of F-18 Super Hornets were spotted with AIM-174Bs on its rails. These have a range at altitude of around 300 miles.

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I've seen a few posts on Twatter claiming proven in battle.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against a Russian ammunition depot in Sergeevka, Voronezh Oblast on the night of July 6 to 7.

Satellite imagery confirms that the Ukrainian Air Force conducted a successful strike against a reported Russian regimental command post in Belgorod Oblast in late June 2024, likely with Western-provided weapons – further demonstrating how Ukraine could disrupt Russian offensive operations should the West continue to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.

Ukrainian drone operators appear to be improving their capabilities to interdict longer-range Russian drones in mid-air, and these technological innovations may allow Ukrainian forces to ease pressures on short-range and medium-range air defense assets if successfully fielded at scale.

Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz forces likely coerced a Russian milblogger to issue a public apology after he criticized "Akhmat" forces – an illustrative example of unprofessionalism in the Russian military.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City.

Open-source researchers analyzed satellite imagery and assessed that Russia has removed roughly 42 percent of Russian tanks from pre-war open-air storage since the start of the full-scale invasion.

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??Orbán was interviewed on video after his Putin meeting, during his flight back from Moscow. It’s worth watching. He refers to Putin as a friend & admits that he prepared the meeting in secret, behind the EU's back, to avoid surveillance by the "big guys." Let's unpack it!??

First, there is absolutely no criticism of Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian and murderous rule in Russia or the genocidal war in Ukraine, not even a hint. Quite the opposite – Orbán praises both Putin and Russia, describing the country as a great empire. He calls Putin a friend and is proud of their friendly negotiations. He inaccurately recalls their first in-person meeting in 2009 in Saint Petersburg when it was actually in 2006 in Budapest. He seems very proud of himself, emphasizing that he is the only Western leader who has met with both Zelensky and Putin in person. His gestures and smiles reveal his self-satisfaction in his current position. He also admits he intends to use the EU presidency "politically", similar to former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, rather than the usual “bureaucratic” approach. This suggests we can expect more controversy in the next six months of @HU24EU.

Second, Orbán confirms what European government officials and diplomats told me: “The meeting was organized in a totally secret way,” meaning it was arranged behind the backs of EU allies. (Read my story on the background of his visit here: vsquare.org/viktor-orban-v…) He claims he began organizing the meeting with Putin after meeting Zelensky on Monday – which contradicts reports from The Guardian, quoting a Hungarian government-connected source, stating that preparations were made well in advance. Orbán joyfully details how he kept the meeting secret from his allies, explaining, “I sent a secret message to the foreign minister [Péter Szijjártó] to organize something, as telecommunications are totally under surveillance by the big guys, and I tried to keep it under the carpet.” He is likely referring to the US, the UK, Germany, and perhaps China as those "big guys". He adds that the information only leaked when “they realized there was an airplane hired or when we asked for permission for the Hungarian military plane to fly over Poland. That was the point when it leaked. But until then, it was totally under control.”

(For the record, I was the journalist who first reported on his plans to visit Moscow – my original scoop here: x.com/panyiszabolcs/… –, confirmed by three Western and CEE officials. Because of source protection, I obviously can't comment more.)

Third, Orbán claims he asked Putin about various peace proposals, the possibility of a ceasefire, and, interestingly, about Russia’s plans for Europe’s security architecture after the war. Putin dismissed the reality of any peace plans or ceasefires but mentioned that Russia has an idea for Europe’s future security architecture, although it’s too early to discuss. The neutral way how Orbán mentions the Kremlin's future plans for Europe – we can guess what that'd look like – is chilling. Orbán’s recounting of their conversation lacked any mention of Russia’s direct security threat to NATO's Eastern flank countries or the hybrid warfare, sabotage, and violent incidents perpetrated by Russian intelligence services against Hungary’s allies in recent months. Additionally, when Orbán tries to appeal to the audience's emotions by mentioning how many young soldiers die every day, and that perhaps a dozen died during the twenty minutes of this interview, he fails to mention that Ukrainian soldiers are defending their people and land while Russians are invading and massacring civilians.

Fourth, Orbán hints at more surprise visits, also organized in complete secrecy, with the first one happening Monday morning. (I’ve already heard interesting stuff about his plans, so follow this account for more updates soon.)

Fifth, a quick remark on Weltwoche and its editor-in-chief, Roger Köppel, who conducted this video interview. Many comments accuse him of conducting a propaganda interview. However, it's essential to be precise: this is not propaganda like in North Korea, Russia, or Hungary, where government-controlled media acts as a state communications arm. This is classic access journalism, an unethical and unjournalistic approach seen in Western Europe and the United States. Here, otherwise independent outlets set aside all ethical rules to gain exclusive access to political leaders. A Hungarian government propagandist is paid to be a propagandist and has no choice to act in any other way – or they fire him. Weltwoche and Köppel have all their freedom and independence (at least from the Hungarian state), and it was their own decision that intimate access to Orbán is much more important than real journalism. Köppel asked softball questions, without challenging contradictions or addressing Putin’s crimes at home and abroad, and failed to question Orbán about how Hungary’s government is influenced by Russian i

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ETA

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban Arrives in Beijing for Talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Beijing on Monday for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to Orban’s press chief, Bertalan Havasi, who informed state news agency MTI. Havasi stated, “Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s peace mission continues.”

This marks Orban’s third unexpected international trip since Hungary assumed the European Union’s rotating presidency at the beginning of July. Last week, Orban traveled to Ukraine and Russia on what he described as a “peace mission,” with his visit to Moscow drawing strong rebukes from his allies.

Russian press has written several glowing articles about Orban since his visit to Moscow.

Under Orban’s right-leaning leadership, Hungary has become a significant trade and investment partner for China, contrasting with other European Union nations that are seeking to reduce their dependence on the world’s second-largest economy. Orban’s visit comes just days before a NATO summit that will address increased military aid for Ukraine in response to Russia’s “unprovoked war of aggression,” as described by the Western defense alliance.

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Putin seems to have lost the French Parliamentary Election...

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The PT is claiming the French elections were "stolen."


ETA : Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.

FWIW, the most conservative of European parties are about equivalent to the Democrat Party here. France has long history of being anti Jewish as well.